No news, good news. The weekend did not bring unpleasant news for banks, which is already something. Hence the prediction of a discrete opening rebound favored by the possible sale to First Citizen Bank of Silicon Valley bank, the institute from which it all began. But the caution is a must: it is a matter of understanding whether the Deutsche Bank plunges -8,5% on Friday, is an isolated episode or the canary announcing the next collapse of the mine.
Kashkari (Fed): the risk is the credit crunch
By the way, the warning of one of the most important institutes comes from Australia, indeed: “We can't rule out a violent crisis, like 2008”. Having made the exorcisms, it is worth listening to the opinion of Neel Kashkari, authoritative hawk of the Fed: “We are vigilant with the maximum attention, because we are very close to the credit crunch, one step away from the recession”.
Positive opening in Europe, 1,2% and USA +0,7%
European stocks should still start the week higher, the future of theEuroStoxx50 index earn 1%. Credit Suisse it could face disciplinary proceedings for the conduct of its executives prior to the collapse, Swiss regulator Finma has warned.
Also the Confindustria has taken sides with the government and Bank of Italy to ask for one break inrise in European rates. But Frankfurt's response is for now interlocutory. In an interview the vice president of the Eurotower, Luis de Guindos, said that "the era of negative interest rates is over": Frankfurt will adopt its monetary policy decisions "meeting by meeting, without committing ourselves in advance". An intervention is scheduled for today Isabel Schnabel, German member of the ECB. In the morning it will be publishedIfo index.
European inflation data on Friday: +7,1% expected
Once again the most important data of the week concerns theinflation. The number relating to the Eurozone will be released on Friday, as well as that of Italy and France, while the day before that of Germany and Spain. The wait is for one braking at 7,1%, from the previous 8,5%, thanks mainly to the reduction in energy prices, while the 'core' component it is expected to rise slightly, to a record level of 5,7%, from 5,6% in January. The XNUMX-year BTP it closed Friday at a 4,0% yield. Waist al 2,12%. Euro-dollar unchanged at 1,077. The cross lost 0,7% on Friday.
SVB relinquished to First Citizens
To ease the tension on the banking front could be the confirmation just relaunched by Reuters that First Citizens Bank Shares will buy all deposits and uses of Silicon Valley Bank by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (Fdic). The acquisition includes the purchase of approx $ 72 billion in assets of Silicon Valley Bank at a $16,5 billion discount, the Fdic said. First Citizens has approximately $109 billion in assets and total deposits of $89,4 billion. The 17 former SVB branches will open today as First Citizens Bank, the FDIC said. Approximately $90 billion in securities e other assets of Svb will remain in receivership to be divested, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation added. The S & P500 closed the week with an increase of 1,4%, the future rises of 0,7%.
In Usa the most important data will be that of Tuesday on consumer confidence, expectations down for the third consecutive month. It will be announced on Thursday third estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 in the United States. Treasury Notes this morning at 3,37 years at XNUMX%, not far from the levels of Friday evening.
China in red, IMF optimistic
In Pacific Asia, Chinese stocks drop: CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,8%. Hong Kong -0,4%.
Macroeconomic data released tonight shows that themanufacturing industry is far from pre-pandemic levels. In the first two months of the year, sector profits fell 23%. The National Statistics Office explains in the note that industrial production has rebounded, while market demand has not yet fully recovered.
The Chinese economy is expected to continue to accelerate throughout the year. The Director General of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, he said at the China Development Forum tonight that the current recovery is solid and strong. The Nikkei Tokyo is up 0,3%, on Kospi of Seoul loses 0,2%. Gold down to $1.975 an ounce. WTI oil at 69 dollars a barrel, flat after two sessions of decline. Bitcoin at $ 27.950.
Today the accounts Diasorin, Juventus in court
On the corporate front, the presentation of the accounts of Diasorin.
The attention, however, is concentrated on the banking sector. Unicredit submitted to the ECB the request for the repayment of a 1 billion perpetual AT1,25 bond on the first call date of June 3, a source said, in a move signaling its intention to comply with market practice at a critical moment for the sector and as proof of the financial strength of the institute. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced yesterday that will vote for it of the bank's remuneration plan, which includes the proposal of a new salary package for the AD Andrea Orcell, in the shareholders' meeting of 31 March.
Monte dei Paschi: the Treasury has defined the tandem to lead the publicly controlled bank in the next phase, confirming the CEO Louis Lovaglio a little over a year after his arrival in Siena and entrusting the presidency to Nicholas Maione, a lawyer who has sat on the MPS board since 2017 after having held the position of president of ENAV in the past. The Bank foundations, who signed a consultation and voting agreement on the 14% stake held in the bank on 2,305 March, presented a minority list for the board renewal, the Monte dei Paschi Foundation communicated yesterday.
Fineco Bank: Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with the Overweight/In line rating. Target price at 18,5 euros.
Italian post: Citi lowers its target price to 12,5 euros.
Juventus he closed the first semester with one loss of 29,5 million an improvement compared to the loss of 112,1 million recorded a year earlier thanks to higher income from the management of players' rights and higher income from matches. It kicks off today in the court of Turin thepreliminary hearing before the Gup who will have to decide on the requests for indictment presented by the prosecutor for the former president Andrea Agnelli, 11 other people and the club itself, as part of the investigation into the company's accounts.
