There will be no recovery in the second half of the year: the Italian recession will continue throughout 2013 and the decline in GDP will be more severe than expected. it supports theOECD in its six-monthly Outlook, underlining that "the necessary consolidation of the public accounts and the restrictive credit conditions have prolonged the recession" in our country.
The International Organization has once again cut its forecasts on the trend of Italian GDP 2013: the new data is -1,8%, against the -1% estimated in the November report and the -1,5% indicated at the beginning of May. For the 2014, however, the estimate is now one 0,4% growth, against the +0,6% anticipated six months ago and the +0,5% at the beginning of the month. In the entire OECD area, forecasts for Italy are only better than those for Greece (-4,8%), Portugal (-2,7%) and Slovenia (-2,3%). Even Spain should achieve a better result (-1,7%).
On the front of the deficit, the OECD estimates a figure for Italy of 3% of GDP in 2013 (the maximum limit set by the Maastricht treaty) and a drop to 2,3% in 2014. Less than a month ago, in the report on Italy published in Rome on 2 May, the Organization forecast a GDP deficit of 3,3% in 2013 and 3,8% in 2014.
As for the Italian labor market, the Organization expects a worsening of the unemployment to 11,9% this year and 12,5% next, with an occupation down by 1% and 0,6% respectively. The new decline is reflected in the household incomes (-0,3% and +0,4%) and on consumer spending (-2,2% and -0,4%). The savings rate it should go from 3,4% in 2012 to 3,9% this year and 3,8% in 2014.
On the other hand, with reference to our country, the OECD also records hints of improvement in competitiveness: la wage growth it slowed down "less than in other countries" and exporters narrowed profit margins, strengthening price competitiveness. improve the export, estimated to grow by 2,9% this year (from +2,2% in 2012) and by 4,9% next year. L'inflation it is down to 1,6% and 1,2%.
Finally, the OECD sends Italy a series of recommendations: implement pro-growth reforms, limit public spending and “avoid premature tax cuts“, in order to start the process of debt reduction (to 131,7% in 2013 and 134,3% in 2014).
According to Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist and deputy OECD secretary, “the attitude of the banks” weighs more on the recession than fiscal rigour, which “is ending. The banks that have to adjust their balance sheets by recapitalizing effectively prevent the ECB's very expansive monetary policy – it could be even more so – from translating into a stimulus to the real economy. It is a brake that will not be eliminated as long as the banks have recapitalization problems”.
