The US continues to break records. The Ism manufacturing index displaced forecasts yesterday with the most positive data since May 2004, surpassing even the most optimistic of the 69 forecasts collected by Bloomberg from as many analysts. Meanwhile Amazon (+1,9%) has joined Apple in the trillion club of dollars of value. But Jeff Bezos' company took just a year to double in value, climbing $520 billion in the past twelve months.
These records, however, do not awaken the Animal Spirits of the price lists, all in red at all latitudes, with the exception of Piazza Affari, grappling with the manoeuvre. Such caution can be explained, in part, by the approaching Fed meeting: taking into account the rate hike, the risk is of a more robust tightening. But the fear of a new chapter in the clash on trade weighs more heavily, in an increasingly tense political climate in view of the US elections in November.
The US Stock Exchange also aims to exploit the pro-r confrontation with Trump. Nike has chosen as new testimonial of "Just to do it" none other than Colin Kapernick, the football player who first chose to kneel during the national anthem to challenge the president. The choice caused a shower of sales (-3,2%) on the stock but in perspective it could prove successful.
FROM ARGENTINA TO INDONESIA: EMERGING UNDER FIRE,
The Asian price lists are weak in this context. The Chinese stock exchanges suffer in particular: the CSI 300 index of the Shanghai-Shenzhen stock exchange drops by a good 1%. Hong Kong fares worse where the index of Chinese stocks loses 2%. Investors are unnerved by the threat of new tariffs from the United States on another 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods that could soon come into force.
The crisis of emerging markets worsens. Indonesian stocks plunged more than 3%, while the Rupiah fluctuates around its lowest levels since the 1998 financial crisis. The central bank said it had "intervened decisively" in the foreign exchange and bond markets to support of the currency.
The Argentine peso closed 2% lower yesterday, even as US President Trump expressed his support for Argentine President Mauricio Macri and his efforts to secure IMF funding following a growing economic crisis. Argentine Economy Minister Nicolas Dujovne met with International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde in Washington and both said they are working to improve the 50 billion deal agreed in June.
TODAY THE US-CANADA NEGOTIATIONS RECOMMEND
Tokyo was also down (-0,3%), but trade was weighed down by the most violent typhoon in the last twenty years.
The American indices moved little yesterday: Dow Jones -0,05%, S&P 500 -0,17%, Nasdaq -0,23%. Facebook fell sharply (-2,6%) after the downgrade of some analysts.
Talks between Canada and the US are expected to resume today and that keeps trade issues at the forefront. The latest round ended on Friday with no deal to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Oil is holding back: Brent at 77,80 dollars, down from Monday's record prices (79,72), Wti below 70 dollars. The markets are waiting to verify the consistency of the Libyan truce. In great evidence Saipem (+2,5%).
PLUS SIGN OPENING ONLY FOR PIAZZA AFFARI
Italy is less scary for the markets. The mini rally triggered by the soft tones adopted by Matteo Salvini which helped to reduce the rise in the spread should continue this morning as well. At the meeting of the League with the group leaders of the House and Senate and the economic managers, the deputy premier supported the opportunity to keep the 2019 net debt below 3% but "just above 2%" of GDP.
A completely different climate in the rest of Europe, still under pressure while awaiting the next moves on tariffs by the US president and worried by the crisis in Emerging Countries (South Africa was added to the list of problems for Turkey and Argentina, since yesterday officially in recession), always good customers of German exports.
FROM TODAY MADE IN ITALY ON THE CATWALK IN MILAN
And so, for the second day in a row, Milan (+1,01%, index at 20.601 points) confirmed itself as the best market on trades for 2,4 billion. It is a good ticket for Italian Equity Week, the event organized by Borsa Italiana and Confindustria which for three days will from today compare 200 investors representing 130 investment houses from 4 continents with listed companies (60) and not representing the most appetizing sectors of Made in Italy.
DEUTSCHE BANK DOWNGRADED FROM EURO STOXX
The weakness of the euro didn't help other markets either. In Frankfurt (-1,11%) the weakness of Deutsche Bank weighs. The flagship of the trans-Rhine banks will leave the European blue chip index, the Euro Stoxx 24, on 50 September following the collapse of its market capitalization which this year fell by 38%, to 20,2, XNUMX billion euros.
Paris -1,31%; London -0,62%; flat Madrid (-0,05%).
THE BTP ALSO RECOVERS ON SPAIN. FLY THE TWO YEARS
The more relaxed public finance climate allowed for a robust recovery of the debt market. The spread on the 267-year Bund fell to 22 basis points, the lowest since August 3nd. The 3,035-year yield slipped just above 0,355% (6,61%), that of the Bund rose again to XNUMX% (+XNUMX%).
The reaction of two-year and five-year bonds was even more energetic, down to 20 cents. The biennale experienced its best session since 11 June.
The rally also involved the other peripheral countries but the BTPs gain positions on both Spain and Portugal.
The five-year CDS on Italian debt fell by around 252 basis points from 259 basis points at the previous closure.
BANKS IN RALLY, BUT SINCE JANUARY THEY LOSE 14,5%
Thanks to the sharp drop in the spread, the banking sector experienced a day of recovery. The sub-fund index recorded a rise of 4,2%, reducing the loss since the beginning of the year to 14,5%.
The rally was also favored by the news that the ministerial decree extending until 7 March 2019 the validity of the Gacs, the public guarantee on the securitization of bank non-performing loans, is being signed by the Minister of Economy Giovanni Tria and the entry into force with the publication in the Official Gazette it is a matter of days.
JP MORGAN PUSHES UBI, HISTORICAL RECORD FOR FINECO
Ubi Banca (+4,6%) is one of the brightest banks after JP Morgan's promotion to overweight from neutral, target €4,20. Banca Bpm (+2,55%) and Bper Banca (+3,67%) are also up.
All the big names are also to the rescue: Intesa Sanpaolo +5%, Unicredit +4%, Mediobanca +3%. The main shareholders of the institute are brought together in a syndicate pact which binds 28,5% of the capital. The agreement expires at the end of 2019, but a window for early cancellations is foreseen in September.
FinecoBank (+3,5%) reaches a new historical record of 10,64 euro. Since the beginning of 2018, a positive performance of around 23%. Banca Ifis still doing well (+3,4%).
JEEP CHARGES FCA, PININFARINA RETURNS TO SHOPPING
Fiat Chrysler did well (+1,72%), in contrast with the rest of the sector in Europe. The automaker announced sales in the US up 10% in August, thanks to Jeep and Ram.
Pininfarina goes up (+3,7%) on Investor Day. Silvio Pietro Angori, the managing director, declared that the company will not grow only internally.
TELECOM COLLAPSES, THE CDP BILL RISES
Telecom Italia collapses (-5,41% to 0,52 euro) due to the report by Exane (always close to Vincent Bolloré) which attributes a target price of 38 cents to the stock. Meanwhile, Iliad exceeds 1,5 million customers in the Bel Paese. Capitalization fell below the threshold of 8 billion, to 7,98 billion. A potential damage for the shareholders, in particular for Vivendi which has Telecom shares at 1,0709 euros. But also for the CDP, which entered last April with an investment of 600 million which is seeing more than a third of its investment go up in smoke.
NEW NO TO ATLATIA, ASTALDI AT THE LOWEST EVER
Heavy Atlantia (-2,23%): the Minister of Infrastructure Danilo Toninelli declared that the government is united on the fact that the reconstruction of the Morandi bridge is entrusted to a public entity or to mainly public participation.
Astaldi extends the loss in the final by marking the new historic low of 1,38 euro. The consortium made up of Astaldi and Reliance Infrastructure has signed a new turnkey contract with the Maharashtra State Road Development company.
