The OECD revises Forecasts di growth e inflation, painting a not very reassuring picture for Italy, but not only. In its interim update of the Economic Outlook, the Parisian organization indicates a +3,4% of Italian GDP on 2022 and +0,4% on 2023 (a cut of 0,8 points from previous estimates). Number that the new Government moved to the right (with the victory of the center-right) one would have to manage in writing a Maneuver which presents itself with very few margins and even more limited times to be able to think of including structural measures.
The alarm also rings out from Paris on inflation. In fact, the OECD has revised upwards its forecasts on a global scale and warns that precisely to intervene on the cost of living "further increases in interest rates are needed" by central banks "in most economies, to restore confidence of households and businesses – said the secretary general of the OECD Mathias Cormann -. If it is not done now, the risk is that more painful and costly measures will have to be taken later".
Italy, OECD estimates on GDP and inflation
Italy is on its way to closing 2022 with a growth of 3,4%, significantly higher than that of Germany and France, but second to Spain. As regards 2023, the OECD has instead significantly lowered the growth estimate for Italy to 0,4% (-0,8% compared to June), but still in positive territory. In the first case it is 0,9 percentage points more than the June forecasts while for next year the value has been cut by 0,8 percentage points.
Bad inflation. For Italy, the OECD forecasts un inflation at 7,8% in 2022 and 4,7% in 2023, respectively 1,5 and 0,9 percentage points more than the previous forecasts. It should be noted that according to OECD calculations, the incidence of energy expenditure for Italy has risen from 5% in 2019-2021 to 13% in 2022 .
OECD: "Eurozone risks negative growth in 2023"
The Parisian organization's estimate of growth in the euro area is 3,1% this year and 0,3% next, therefore in both cases lower – albeit slightly – than that for Italy. But he warns, in the event of an adverse scenario with insufficient energy supplies, the Eurozone would risk negative growth close to 1%.
As far as inflation is concerned, the OECD now estimates that the euro area is estimated at 8,1% in 2022 (1,1 percentage points more than the June forecasts), and at 6,2% in 2023, (1,6 .XNUMX percentage points higher than previous forecasts).
For the Germany the organization expects 1,2% growth this year, and that too has been revised down by 0,7 percentage points, and a 0,7% recession next year, with an even heavier 2,4 cut, XNUMX% compared to the June forecast. There France instead, it is expected to grow this year by 2,6% and by 0,6% (-0,8%). Spain as much as 4,4% in 2022 and 1,5% (-0,7%) in 2023.
Furthermore, the OECD sees "risks of a drop in production in various European economies during the winter months" (including Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom) considering "the dampening effect exerted by the drop in real incomes and by market perturbations energetic".
OECD: "The global economy pays the price of war"
But not only the Eurozone is paying the price for Putin's war. According to the report, the global growth will slow by 3% in 2022 (unchanged from June projections) to 2,2% in 2023 (-0,6% compared to three months ago). In terms of wealth lost to the war, the OECD points out that global real incomes could be about $2.800 trillion lower than predicted a year ago (a drop of just over 2% of GDP in parity terms). of purchasing power).
Outside the Eurozone, the OECD estimates growth of 1,5% for the United States this year (-1% compared to June) and 0,5% in 2023 (-0,7%). Instead, the Covid closures adopted by the Beijing government will curb Chinese growth to 3,2% in 2022 (-1,2%) with a partial recovery in 2023 to 4,7% (-0,2%).
