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The spread remains high and the uncertainty about Draghi pays off

Uncertainty about Mario Draghi's political future (does he stay at the Palazzo or goes up to the Quirinale?) and about the possibility that Italy respects the commitments undertaken with Europe for the Next Generation Eu keeps the differential between the Btp and the Bund high, which measures the Country risk in the eyes of the markets – Profits were taken on the Stock Exchange but the Ftse Mib defended its share of 27 thousand

The spread remains high and the uncertainty about Draghi pays off

The Bull takes a breath and the European lists close one of the last sessions of the year with a fractional decrease, thanks to the reduced trades, the profit taking and the cautious start of Wall Street.

Business Square it loses 0,37% and rewinds the tape up to 27.344 points, moving away from the 2021 highs marked on November 15 last year. 

Also Paris it retreats slightly from the goal reached yesterday (and never seen before), recording a drop of 0,27%; Madrid loses 0,25%; Amsterdam -0,6%. Bucking London, +0,7%, which remained closed the first two days of the week and thus recovers the Christmas rally.

In New York, the three main indices proceed mixed: the Dow Jones is up 0,1%, the S&P 500 appears flat, while the Nasdaq is down 0,3%. Among the titles in evidence there is Tesla, which appreciates after the sale of shares for about a billion dollars by the managing director, Elon Musk, who exercised the last series of stock options expiring in August. It is in the red at Coinbase, which loses another 2% or so after yesterday's -7% caused by the bitcoin slide (currently worth $47.950, -2,3%).

The overall climate remains moderately positive, if we consider that the pandemic continues to spread from one side of the Atlantic to the other and that investors come from a 17% gain in global stocks and therefore some profit taking before the closing of the annual budget.

MAJOR RISES AND DOWNS ON THE FTSE MIB

In Piazza Affari, stocks such as are defending themselves better in this slightly negative session Inwit +0,86%; Campari + 0,62% Amplifon + 0,66%.

Between history in itself Bper Banca, which gains 0,77% after rising the most in the morning. Moody's gave its opinion on the Modenese bank, improving its outlook on the long-term “Ba3” rating from “stable” to “positive”. The decision is based on the expectation that the bank will continue the process of improving credit quality, maintaining good levels of capital and profitability over the next 12-18 months. The rating agency also highlights that the acquisition of the Banca Carige group, if finalized, would help strengthen Bper's competitive positioning with opportunities for generating synergies and economies of scale'.

Among the smaller banks, the go-ahead from the shareholders' meeting for the transformation of Popolare di Sondrio into a joint stock company has arrived, a step that could pave the way for a possible third banking pole under the direction of UnipolSai, a shareholder of both.

The big banks are in slight decline, Unicredit e Understanding, which however are about to close a golden year. In particular, Unicredit is one of the best stocks of the Ftse Mib with an annual performance of more than +76%.

On the weak side of the list they are in red nexi -1,31%; Eni -1%; Exor -0,96%; stellantis -0,9%.

Outside the main basket, Directa Sim dominates with an increase of 25,97%. The stock has more than doubled in value since its Dec. 22 debut.

SPREAD STABLE, BUT CONCERNS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF DRAGONS RISE

Rates go up and so spread remains stable on the Italian secondary market, after growing recently. The differential between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration is confirmed at 134 basis points. The yield of the Italian bond rises to +1,16% and that of the German bond to -0,19%.

As we have already written in recent days, the markets are looking to Mario Draghi as a barrier to speculation about Italy. In recent days there has been some tension regarding government bonds, while the fate of the prime minister has appeared to be under discussion and a connection can probably be established between the two facts.  

NEW RECORDS FOR OMICRON, BUT NO FEAR

Today it is only the infections that set new records. France has reached 24 thousand new positives in 208 hours, but also Italy, Great Britain, Spain, Portugal, Greece, the United States, Australia are grappling with unprecedented numbers.

Due to the current situation, US airlines continue to cancel flights, yet “the market thinks that Omicron it will only hit certain sectors of the entire economy and that most stocks will do well,” says Luiz Pacheco, wealth advisor at Miami-based Brainvest Wealth Management.

The belief prevails, supported by the first observations, that the new strain of the coronavirus is more infectious but less lethal, at least for the vaccinated, so much so that the measures to stem the infections are not so drastic. Also in Italy in these hours a decision is being made to reduce the quarantine for those who have had close contact with a positive but are vaccinated with a third dose, while for PA workers we are thinking of a strengthened Green pass.

LOOKING TO 2022 WITH OPTIMISM: FEARS ABOUT SUPPLY CHAINS AND INFLATION

The year therefore ends with a certain optimism, in the reasonable hope that Omicron will not scupper the recovery of 2022. Operators' attention will instead shift to the path of the central banks and in particular to the rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, but also about inflation and bottlenecks in the supply chain.

On the latter front, a new alarm comes from the top management of Infineon, according to which the semiconductor sector will have to continue to fight to fulfill orders, because the bottlenecks are destined to last until the end of 2022.

And the affected sectors are many. For example, in Japan McDonald's ran out of fries due to hitches and had to make an agreement with a US company to have three Boeings of potatoes delivered, a precious raw material if you want to enjoy French fries.

FLAT OIL, EURO RISES

Among the raw materials it slows down the Petroleum, which remains on the levels of the eve.

On the currency market, the session is positive for theeuro, with the exchange rate around 1,135.

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