Again, as is increasingly the case, the reality of the numbers is worse than central bank forecasts. US inflation rose to 7,5% in January, the highest since 1982, at the beginning of the Reagan era. The reaction of the bonds was immediate: the 2-year T-bond broke the psychological barrier of 2,03%. This morning the title travels on 1%. Equally prompt was the reply from James Bullard, a veteran of the Fed, who stated that he was in favor of an immediate start to the process of raising interest rates, so as to arrive in July with rates at 100%. “I was already very hawkish but I am more and more,” he told Bloomberg TV. Bullard expects three hikes in the next three meetings (up to a total of XNUMX points) as the Fed's balance sheet reduction begins in the second quarter.
The setback by Wall Street is therefore not surprising, even if most operators do not believe that the Fed wants to go as far as risking a recession. Meanwhile, however, the dollar, the refuge currency of hot moments, is rising again. The greenback appreciates against the sixteen main reference currencies of the world: Norwegian krone -0,5%, South African rand -0,4%, Euro -0,4%.
This morning Asian markets were down: Kospi of Seoul -0,7%, Taiex of Taipei -0,3%, Strait Times +0,1%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,2%, but the recovery of Evergrande continues (+1,15%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,3%. Mumbai Stocks opened 1,2% lower. Tokyo and Sydney markets closed.
Wall Street's reaction was much heavier: the Nasdaq lost 2,1%, the S&P500 1,8% and the Dow Jones 1,5%. Only toys and theme parks are doing well: Walt Disney +3,4%, Mattel, the Barbie company, rises by 7,65% after having revised upwards the estimates for 2022.
In addition to the 1,57-year hike, it should be noted that the two-year T bond, the most linked to rate decisions, trades at 2019% after the sharpest increase since 89,5. WTI oil trades at $XNUMX a barrel , slightly down.
European futures in the red. De Guindos defends the ECB line
The trend of futures on the Eurostoxx 50 (-1,3%) signals a red start for the European stock exchanges. US inflation did not have time yesterday to completely curb the upward thrust of European lists, but the clash in the EU between doves worried about the impact of the increase in costs for weaker Europe has risen in tone (Italy and Greece, in particular) and the rest of the community. Yesterday the vice president of the ECB, the Spaniard Luiz De Guindos, took the field in favor of the dove Lagarde: the European Central Bank will raise the main interest rate, he said, only "if and when" it sees inflation stabilize at its target by 2%, without being conditioned by what the Fed is doing. But the hawks' response was not long in coming: the ECB offices led by the dove Philip Lane, is the accusation relaunched by Bloomberg, are rigging downwards the data on prices.
Brussels: in 2023 prices at 1,7%. GDP under braking
But, beyond the suspicions and controversies, Brussels has revised upwards its inflation expectations due to high energy prices, but also due to the expansion of inflationary pressures on other categories of goods starting from the autumn. Overall, inflation in the euro area in 2022 is expected to reach 3,5% (3,9 in the EU) before declining to 1,7% (1,9% in the EU) in 2023. For Italy inflation is expected above the Eurozone level (at 3,8%) in 2022, to then drop to 1,6% in 2023.
Growth estimates have instead been revised downwards. The GDP of the euro area will grow by 4% in 2022 (it was +4,3%) and by 2,7% in 2023. For our country, the forecasts speak instead of +4,1% in 2022 and +2,3 % in 2023.
In-flight spread at 160 points. Btp at auction today
The result is that eurozone bond yields have started to rise again. In Europe: Bund at 0,28%, +7 basis points. BTP at 1,88%, from 1,76% yesterday, the highest for twenty years. Spread widening to 160 points.
In the wake of pressure on rates, 6,5 billion of 12-month BOTs were assigned yesterday at the highest rate since September 2020. Today the Treasury is offering up to 7,75 billion BTPs on three, seven and 20-year maturities . The three-year bond at auction today travels at a yield of 0,49% and the seven-year bond at 1,38%: if confirmed at the time of placement, it is in both cases the maximum since May 2020. As for the twenty-year bond, the March 2041 pays 2,26% against 1,55% of the June placement of last year.
Business center +0,23% above 27 thousand
Thanks to the increases before the cold shower on Wall Street, Milan (+0,23%), after going negative with the US data, consolidates its recovery on the eve of the final and rises to 27.190 basis points. Contrasted by the rest of the Old Continent: positive Madrid (+0,54%) and Frankfurt (+0,05%). In red Paris (-0,4%) and Amsterdam (-0,95%). Outside the EU, London closed the session with an increase of 0,38%.
Siemens flies (+4,72%): the engineering and technology group said it expects an "extraordinary" increase in orders. The health sector also runs. AstraZeneca (+1,70%) has raised its forecasts. On the contrary, after the losses incurred in the quarter and the scandals, Crédit Suisse dropped 6,6%.
Superstar banks, Banca Ifis leads the race
The banks are always the engine of the increases in Piazza Affari. The FTSE Italian all-share Banks index, which brings together the main bank stocks listed on the Piazza Affari, reaches its highest level since May 2018, thanks to the eighth increase in ten sessions. From the beginning of the year +20%.
Banca Ifis shines: about +7% later the 2021 results and the plan to 2024. Among the big names, immediately after the data on US inflation, coverage of Unicredit (+3,2%) took off; Intesa San Paolo also did well at +2,3%.
Mediobanca decreased (-0,28%) which collected the upgrade from neutral to accumulated by Banca Akros, with a target price that went from 11 to 12 euros. The accounts for the second quarter showed "a generation of revenues stronger than expected," the analysts explain. Akros has raised its adjusted EPS (earnings per share) estimates from €1,02 to €1,20 for 2022.
Nexi from +4% to -5%. From Brazil push to Tim
Bpm and Bper brake in the afternoon. On the roller coaster Nexi: strong game then lost ground and dropped 5% after the results of the fourth quarter of 2021 above expectations for both net revenues and Ebitda, in the classic "sell on news" with investors realizing.
Ordinary Tims are strong, growing by 3,2%, and savings, up 3,4% after the conditional go-ahead from the Brazilian antitrust authority for the sale of Oì's mobile telephony assets to the consortium Tim, Telefonica Brasil and Of course. On the sector consolidation front, however, Vodafone has rejected a preliminary offer from Iliad and private equity firm Apax Partners to buy its Italian assets.
Cnh in rally, Saipem raises its head
However, the best stock of the day, on the long wave of solid balance sheet numbers, is Cnh Industrial, which gains 4,3%. Oil companies are also doing well thanks to the sharp increases in crude oil: Saipem raises its head again after the massive losses of the last few sessions and gains 2,7%, Tenaris grows by 1% and Eni by 0,4%.
Mef (formerly Mediaset): bet on the dividend
Finally, a marked rebound for Mfe-MediaforEurope shares, the former Mediaset, which became category B shares +5,7% to whose holders were also assigned A shares +10,1, after a roadshow with financial analysts and expectations for the distribution of the dividend.
