The first studies on the impact of Omicron, conducted in the United Kingdom and South Africa, suggest that the new variant, although more contagious, would have a lower incidence than Delta in terms of serious illness and hospitalizations. Research by Imperial College London found that Omicron variant positives have up to 20% less chance of entering a hospital than the original strain and previous variants. A group of Scottish researchers has established that Omicron is much more contagious but the risk of intensive care is 75% lower.
OMICRON PAUSES LESS, WALL STREET HUNTING FOR FRESHMAN TEAMS
The WHO recommends prudence on the data, but the result is enough to support the optimism of Wall Street which is about to celebrate the Christmas rally at the end of a golden year: who knows when the S&P 500 +25% from January will repeat a a similar performance, also because the exit of Chinese securities from US lists risk significantly reducing activity in New York. Nyse and Nasdaq have decided to run for cover by proposing the listing of the Big Indian Stock Exchange, but also of the blue chips of Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. A new confirmation that business is now looking to the East. But, barring a worsening of the Ukrainian crisis, the wrath of celebration is also arriving in Europe.
FUTURE UP, TOKYO POSITIVE
– European stock futures anticipate a 0,4% rise in the session.
– In the aftermath of Wall Street's S&P 500's new record high, the MSCI Asia Pacific index, which excludes Tokyo's Nikkei, rose for the third consecutive day, up 0,3%.
– Japan's stock gains 0,5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0,2%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists +0,1%. Kospi of Seoul +0,2%, BSE Sensex of Mumbai +0,5%.
THE STREAK ON TECH SCARES HONG KONG
– Trading volumes have been in freefall week-to-date in Hong Kong, even less than half of last year's average.
– The crisis of the new Chinese economy, after the crackdown by the authorities, is holding back the former British colony. Tencent has surprisingly announced that it will distribute a large part of its stake in Jd.com, number two in Chinese e-commerce to shareholders. The divestment of a stake worth $16 billion comes after the launch of a series of investigations by Chinese competition regulators. Jd.com stock is down 9%.
US PI RISES, TESLA RUNS +7%
– In the final stages, Wall Street's race gained speed, galvanized by the upward adjustment of GDP in the third quarter to +2,3%. The S&P 500 jumped 1,02%, the Nasdaq was up 1,18% and the Dow Jones +0,74%. Futures in Asia are up this morning.
– The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose to 115,80 points from 111,90 (revised) in November. Expectations were at 111 points.
– Tesla +7% should be noted. Elon Musk said he won't sell any more shares because he achieved the goal he set for himself when he started cutting his stake.
GOLD AND OIL ON THE RISE
Without great emotions the other macro data:
– Ten-year Treasury Notes trade at 1,45%. Dollar index down for the fourth day in a row to 96,05. Euro dollar at 1,134, in the high end of the narrow four-week range.
– WTI oil up 0,3% to $73 a barrel: on last Thursday's levels. Highest since the beginning of the month for gold, at 1,804 dollars.
– Bitcoin down 1,5%.
GRANDFATHER DRAGHI DOES NOT EXCLUDE QUIRINALE, 2022 GDP +4,3%
Mario Draghi, "the grandfather at the service of the institutions", does not offer an explanation of his future while emphasizing (it is not known with how sincerely) that he "has no particular aspirations of one type or another".
The real litmus test will be economic growth. And, as confirmed by the entente forecasts San Paolo, Italy arrives at the halfway point at the end of the year with the prospect of an increase for 2022 of four percentage points. But this is not enough to ward off the shadow of an increase in the spread by the end of March, when, after we don't know how the race to the Quirinale has been overcome, the taps of the Pepp program will turn off. Confirming that the risk exists are the statements of ECB member Robert Holzmann, according to which the European central bank could decide to raise rates in 2022. The end of bond purchases, he argues, would be a "strong signal for a rise in rates in the next two quarters”. Even Isabel Schnabel in an interview with Lo Monde said this morning that the extent of the price drop is more uncertain today.
SPREAD INCREASES, BTP TO 1,04%
In this picture, the Italian secondary closes in the red. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration reaches 134 basis points (+1,65%) and the yield on the Italian bond grows to +1,04%.
Türkiye, GAP OF OXYGEN FOR THE LIRA, SUFFERS FROM NUTELLA
The Turkish lira holds onto recent gains after new measures announced by President Tayyip Erdogan to bolster Turkish savings from volatility. The currency crisis is not only causing the hemorrhage of currency reserves but has hit the heart of hazelnut production, a sector in which Turkey is the world leader with 4 million workers. There will certainly be reflections for Nutella.
GREEN LISTS: MILAN 0,66%
Piazza Affari appreciates by 0,66%, to 26.826 points.
Commissioner Carmine Di Noia leaves his office in Consob. From February 16, he will take over the leadership of the OECD's Directorate for Financial and Enterprises Affairs.
DELIVERY COMPANIES ADVANCE IN LONDON
Frankfurt +0,91%; Paris +1,24%; Amsterdam +0,92%.
London +0,6%. Britain's third quarter GDP was revised down to 1,1% (from 1,3% previously). In detail, the country's gross domestic product expanded by 1,1% on a quarterly level, less than what emerged from the preliminary reading at +1,3% q/q.
Just Eat leap forward +4,8%. The gig economy company has concluded an agreement with Tesco supermarkets for home delivery of products.
LOGISTICS, MAERSK ADVANCES IN HONG KONG
Logistics is on the move. After the agreement between Mcs and Bolloré, yesterday it was the turn of the purchase of LF Logistic of Hong Kong by Maersk for 3,6 billion dollars.
CNH AND LEONARDO, STRENNE OF PIAZZA AFFARI
Cnh Industrial stock made a big splash in Piazza Affari, up 2,7% just a few days after the split of Iveco.
Leonardo also rips off +2,4%: the timing of the sales of Oto Melara and Wass will be short, declared the CEO Alessando Profumo while specifying that the sale has not yet been defined.
DRAGHI PUSHES TELECOM (AND MPS)
Telecom raises its head: during the press conference at the end of the year, the premier raised no objections against the possible takeover bid by KKR.
In contrast, MPS gains 1,4% benefiting from the words of Draghi who said he sees no difficulties in negotiations with the European authorities on extending the deadline for the privatization of the Sienese institute.
EQUITA PROMOTES THE BPER PLAN FOR CARIGE
Weak banks: Bper -0,7% is the worst between and blue chips after reiterating its willingness to open a discussion with Fitd on the acquisition of the majority stake in Carige -0,1%. For Equita Sim, even with a recapitalization of Carige for around 650 million by the Fitd (compared to the billion initially requested by Bper) and with the conversion of Dta for 320 million, "there would be room to cover Carige's restructuring costs with a Cet1 more than 13%".
JUVENTUS BLACK JERSEY, BIESSE RUNS
Juventus drops by 2,7%: once the capital increase on the club has been archived, the uncertainties for possible new interruptions of the season due to Covid-19 are discharged.
In the rest of the list:
Biesse advances +4,4% promoted by Banca Akros to "buy" from "accumulated" with the target price unchanged at 34 euros.
In light Autogrill +1,26% promoted by analysts after the improvement of the 2021 guidance. Kepler Cheuvreux has raised the recommendation from hold to buy, with the target price going from 6,4 to 7 euros.
DIRECTA AND SCC, RECORD DEBUT AT THE EGM
On the day of the debut, freshmen at Euronext Growth Milan continue to rise sharply: Directa +12,7%, Iscc Fintech, a company active in the purchase of 'granular' portfolios of NPL credits, increases by +16,7%.
