Stalemate for European lists, pending indications from the ECB. The same climate of expectation overseas: Wall Street, busy digesting the often contradictory signals arriving from the quarterly reports (172 in the week), awaits President Trump's moves before attempting a new leap forward or cashing in the profits within the year. The first signal, pending tax reform, should come with the choice of the new Fed president. The two favorite candidates are James Taylor, an economist who teaches at Stanford University considered a hawk, and Jerome Powell, whose nomination would be in full swing. continuity with Janet Yellen's line (still running). Probable decision within the week. Simultaneously with the appointment of the president of the Bank of Italy which will be decided by the Council of Ministers next Friday.
THE NAME OF XI IN THE CONSTITUTION, LIKE MAO
Meanwhile, great news is ripening in the East, where fear is growing for North Korea's next moves. This morning the 2.300 delegates of the Party Congress decided to include in the Constitution the reference to Xi Jingping, defined as "the founder of socialism of the new era with Chinese characteristics". To evaluate this choice, suffice it to say that so far only Mao Tse Tung had been given so much honor in his lifetime. It remains to be understood what nature "the Chinese socialism of the XNUMXst century" will have. The ambition is to govern with the support of "big data" governed from the center, without any concession to Western-style democracy but with tight control over managers.
SIXTEEN RAISES IN A ROW FOR OUR JAPAN TEAM
Meanwhile, Japan is celebrating the stock market rally, awaiting the new round of Abenomics which will not focus on consumption but will allocate the proceeds of the forthcoming VAT increase to strengthening welfare. The big names in electronics are driving the boom, confirming that chips are at the origin of the recovery in exports: robots are remedying the problems of an aging population.
And so this morning the Japanese Stock Exchange is starting to close higher for the sixteenth time in sixteen sessions: Nikkei index +0,1%. The other markets rose slightly: Hong Kong +0,1%, CSI300 index of Shanghai and Shenzen lists, +0,4%. Seoul gains 0,2%, Mumbai 0,2%. Instead, the US markets are slowing down. The Dow Jones index fell 0,2% lower after six consecutive days of gains, culminating on Friday with the 2017th triple record of XNUMX.
THUD OF GE, 238 CITIES OFFER THEMSELVES TO AMAZON
The stop is largely linked to the bad performance of General Electric -6,6%, the worst session for six years after the rejection of several brokers, including Ubs and Morgan Stanley. The S&P500 closed down 0,4% and the Nasdaq down 0,6%.
Anticipation is growing for the start of sales on Friday of the iPhone x: forecasts are for a positive but not exceptional start. The tender for Amazon's second headquarters is drawing to a close, with 238 cities competing to grab the giant's second headquarters (and its 50 jobs). Many offers: New Jersey, for example, has offered 7 billion dollars in tax breaks if Jeff Bezos chooses Newark.
ARAMCO CONFIRMS THE LISTING IN 2018
Brent oil traded this morning at 57,5 dollars a barrel, up slightly from -0,6% yesterday. The Energy Index fell 0,38% after results from Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Halliburton. At Piazza Affari Eni + 0,1%. Saipem's accounts came out this morning -2,3% approved yesterday evening by the board of directors. The net result presents a loss of 57 million from the -1,925 billion of last year, when however heavy devaluations had taken place. The adjusted net result, i.e. net of non-recurring items, instead stood at 151 million from 200 million in 2016. As of last September 30, net debt had fallen to 1,355 billion (from 1,45 billion at the end of 2016) while they had been acquired 4,717 billion of new orders. The listing of the Saudi giant Aramco will take place in the second half of 2018. This was confirmed by the CEO of the Saudi oil group, Amin Nasser, denying the reports of the last few weeks on a possible postponement of this operation destined to be the largest IPO ever.
MILAN +0,14%. PADOAN: ITALY MAY RISE BY 2%
The attention of European stock markets is focused on Thursday's ECB meeting. The Catalan crisis weighs heavily, but not too much for now. The Ftse Mib index (+0,14%), which will welcome the Mps stock again tomorrow, closes the session in Piazza Affari at 22.3709. In an interview with Bloomberg, Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan stated that the Italian economy could accelerate by up to 2%. On the crucial issue of bank non-performing loans, Padoan stated that the speed of the disposal of non-performing loans is important, "if too fast", there is a risk of derailing the entire system.
Modest or almost zero increases on the other stock exchanges: Paris, +0,27%; Frankfurt +0,09%; London +0,02%. The worst market is the Spanish one: Madrid closed down by 0,6%. Catalan nationalists are ready to vote on the unilateral declaration of independence on Thursday, thus bringing forward the commissioner by 24 hours.
BTPs FLY, SPREAD TO 156. 4,25 BILLION CTZ COMING SOON
An excellent day for Italian government bonds, which are overcoming possible obstacles, from the uncertainty of the referendums in Lombardy and Veneto to the uncertainty for the top management of the Bank of Italy (the council of ministers will deal with the appointment on Friday). The market is betting on a soft reduction in the purchases of securities by the ECB. According to the latest Reuters survey, the forecast is for a cut of 60 to 40 billion euros per month starting from January. The Btp/Bund spread ended the session just above the minimum of 156 basis points, the lowest level since last August 20th.
The rate on the 2-year benchmark in turn returned to 12%, touched briefly last week and previously on 500 September, Thomson Reuters reported in the morning of a purchase order on Italian paper for 2026 million euros, with maturities of 2028 /26, movement behind the narrowing of the spread on Germany. At the auction on Thursday 2,5 October, the Treasury will offer from 3 to 0,75 billion euros in Ctz and from 1,25 to 30 billion euros in Btpei. Tomorrow the details of the Bot auction on Friday will be communicated, while the following day those of the medium-long offer on Monday the XNUMXth. The confirmation, on Friday with the markets closed, of Italy's sovereign rating at BBB also went almost completely unnoticed. stable outlook, by Fitch.
QUARTERLY: ITALGAS GOOD, LUXOTTICA BRAKING
Also in Piazza Affari the quarterly campaign has come into full swing. On the day of the presentation of the quarterly data, Italgas rose by 2% to 4,92 euro, an all-time high. 'After Enerco, we plan to close another acquisition by the end of the year: for us, M&A operations represent a way to anticipate gas tenders, or to arrive at them in better conditions, always with a view to increasing our market share" . Thus Paolo Gallo, CEO of Italgas, answering questions from analysts in the conference call on quarterly data. “I think gas tenders will accelerate in 2018 – added the manager – next year there could be 10-15 of interest for Italgas'. Among the other utilities Enel +0,6%, Snam +0,1%. A2A -0,9%.
After the market was closed, the results of Luxottica Group arrived -0,50% which closed the third quarter of 2017 with revenues up by 0,8% at constant exchange rates and down by 3,5% at current exchange rates given the strong revaluation of the EUR. The company confirmed its year-end guidance but in the low end of the range: in fact only modest growth (low single digit) at constant exchange rates. Safilo rises by 3,8%, has announced that it has signed an agreement for the commercial exploitation of the Rebecca Minkoff brand. The best title of the day was Stm which will announce the accounts on Thursday morning. The Italian-French joint venture closed up 4,3% at 17,60 euros, a new high since 2004. Liberum expects an upward revision of forecasts for the fourth quarter.
CARS, FCA AND GERMANS IN THE SIGHTS OF THE JUDGES
On the eve of the quarterly accounts of Fiat Chrysler -0,6% the pressure of regulators and magistrates on the four-wheeled world regains strength. According to Le Monde, the company is being investigated on suspicion of obstruction of the French investigation into the deal. FCA France replied that it has always collaborated in investigations by the competent authorities and will continue to do so in the future. The offices of Volkswagen +0,46% and Daimler +059% were also raided yesterday as part of the European Union's investigation into an alleged cartel between German manufacturers. On Friday, EU investigators searched the executive offices of BMW -0,44%.
PIR EFFECT ON REAL ESTATE SECURITIES
The real estate agents are dusting off the press rumors according to which this category of shares could be included in the baskets of securities in which investments can be made through the Pir: Aedes closed at +4,63%, Risanamento +2,56%, Beni Stabili + 2,16%, Coima Res +2,11%, Igd +1,69%.
Originally, the legislation, which introduced the PIRs in Italy earlier this year, had explicitly excluded instruments issued by real estate companies, at least as regards the 70% that must be invested in Italian companies to enable them to benefit from the tax free (the remaining 30% is free). Assoimmobiliare, the sector association which in recent weeks has activated a comparison to verify which Real Estate subjects could be included in the PIR, through an interpretative note from the Ministry which includes at least the SIIQs in the panorama of possible investments useful for tax purposes.
WEAK BANKS. MEDIA SET. THERE IS NO AGREEMENT WITH VIVENDI
In the main basket still to be reported in the list: Mediaset amplifies the weakness of the media in Europe after the director Gina Nieri declared that for now no draft agreement on the dispute with Vivendi has arrived on the table of the Board after some rumors had spoken about it press. Contrast the banks, Intesa +0,1%, Banco Bpm -0,8%, Ubi Banca -0,6%, Unicredit -0,5%, Bper Banca +1,5%. Generali +0,6% thanks to Jefferies Buy.
ASTM IS AWARDED A BRIDGE IN DENMARK
Worth noting is ASTM + 0,26%. The subsidiary Itinera was awarded the tender for the construction of the new 'Storstrom Bridge' in Denmark. The total value of the project is approximately 277 million euros. BF has reached 98,4% of the Ferrara reclamations. The joint procedure on the obligation and the right to purchase the remaining 30% will take place from 7 October to 1,26 November. The stock will be delisted on 14 November, subject to suspension in the trading sessions from 10 to 13 November.
