Optimism reigns on the summit to be held today in Lyon between the Italian Premier, Paolo Gentiloni, and the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron.
The climate has radically changed compared to the end of July, when the battle between Italy and France over Stx France became incandescent with the Elysée's decision to implement a coup de main by temporarily nationalizing the company that his predecessor Francois Hollande had instead opened to the Italian company led by Giuseppe Bono, who had regularly won an international tender. Almost two months have passed since then and today the agreement on Saint Nazaire seems to be one step away, even if Leonardo, a leading company in the defense sector that does not intend to lose ground compared to its transalpine rival Thales, would also like to enter the match, which will no longer only concern civil but also military shipbuilding.
But at the center of today's meeting between Gentiloni and Macron at stake will not only be the future of the civil and military shipbuilding of Stx, but also the economic-political relations between two countries that want to participate in the reform of the European Union, covering, both , a leading role alongside Germany grappling with an electoral result that could shake domestic and foreign balances.
Without forgetting the other great battlefield, this time between private individuals, between Italy and France: namely the Tim – Vivendi affair, with the Palazzo Chigi summit on golden power not casually postponed until tomorrow, 28 September.
Fincantieri – Stx: here is the agreement
The official announcement could come after today's meeting, but the prospects appear to be encouraging: control of the Stx-France shipyard in Saint Nazaire will pass into the hands of Fincantieri.
The majority share of civil activities should immediately go to the Italian company, while negotiations will open on the military which, according to expectations, should lead to the birth of a single large giant formed by Fincantieri and Naval Group, one of the main shipbuilders which operates in the defense systems market.
A stake between 50,1 and 51% of Stx France should go to Bono's company, while the remaining minority stake will remain in the hands of the French. According to the latest rumors, the French state will keep 33% for itself, while 12% could be assigned to Naval Group. The remaining 4% (approximately) would instead go into the hands of Stx France employees and suppliers.
Further indiscretions were published today by the newspaper Le Monde, according to which the French state could offer Fincantieri 50% of Stx France plus an additional 1% on loan for a period of 12 years.
Do not forget the guarantees requested by Macron which, in any case, Fincantieri has already said it is willing to grant, such as the maintenance of current employment levels and "sensitive" activities in Saint Nazaire.
As for the military, as confirmed by the Prime Minister, Paolo Gentiloni, the negotiations will be much longer. The aim is to create a European naval giant capable of excelling in construction, systems engineering and services.
An ambitious project that could be completed in a few months and which should also include a share swap between Fincantieri and Naval Group.
Leonardo's interests
But Naval Group's direct involvement in the military opens up new scenarios which have so far been little considered. 75% of the transalpine company is in the hands of the French state while the remaining 25% belongs to Thales, Leonardo's direct competitor in the defense sector, which is therefore a candidate to become the main if not the only supplier for the military ships of the new European giant .
In order to maintain the continental balance therefore also the group led by Alessandro Profumo, the former Finmeccanica now renamed Leonardo, could enter the game, carving out a role in the military that safeguards Italian interests.
Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti also spoke on the matter, seeing no insurmountable obstacle: “It's just a question of working on equal footing. We are convinced that tensions should be managed with more Europe. And I personally believe that building a defense of common security will be a first step towards a more cohesive Europe”.
Telecom Italia – Vivendi
But the match between Italy and France is also closely intertwined with another battlefield, this time between private individuals but with the active presence of the Italian government, that between Telecom Italia and Vivendi. The company led by Vincent Bolloré is the majority shareholder of the Italian telephone company with a 24% stake, but also holds a large share package in Mediaset which it must get rid of following the Agcom resolution.
An affair that the markets are observing very carefully and which over the past few months has contributed to fueling tensions between the two countries as well as between the private groups involved. The new postponement decided by Rome of the golden power committee, scheduled for tomorrow, can be seen as a "sign" of peace from Italy which intends to favor a serene and relaxed climate, avoiding counterproductive reasons for friction during the summit of today.
But in the event that an agreement beneficial to both parties emerges from today's meeting, the new climate of cooperation between Italy and France would certainly also favor a resolution of the disputes over Tim and Mediaset which, to date, still seem far from a peaceful solution.
The political crux
In addition to the significant financial implications, today's meeting brings with it interesting political implications in the context of a European construction site that could become central in the coming months. After the uncertain outcome of the German elections, the eyes of the continent are now moving to the last major elections of these 12 months: after Holland, France and Germany, next spring it will be Italy's turn. The future structures of the Union could also depend on the outcome of the vote.
A reformist government with a clear pro-European faith in Italy could not only help the country continue on the path of growth, but also participate in and broaden the Paris-Berlin axis that wants to guide the EU towards the necessary reforms requested by the citizens. The current Premier Gentiloni has reiterated it several times: Italy does not intend to be cut off, leaving the task of deciding rules and changes to others, but must participate in a European project that could already be shaken by the German vote. We will talk about it today in Lyon but then the Italian voters will decide.
(Last update at 14.25).
