Global unemployment is growing. According to the latest statistics from the International Labor Organization, there were almost 2013 million unemployed in the world in 202, an increase of 5 million compared to 2012 and the unemployment rate, at 6% in 2013 as in 2012, is estimated to rise to 6,1% this year and in the following two. The situation is even more serious for young people, who have an unemployment rate more than double that of adults at 13,1%, with 74,5 million 15-24 year olds out of work in 2013. Not only that, there are 23 millions are "discouraged", or people who have left the labor market because they have lost hope of finding a job. According to the ILO, the prognosis for the advanced economies of the G20 is more serious with an overall unemployment rate of 8,4% again this year, followed by 8,3% in 2015 and 8,1% in 2016, while for emerging countries the estimate points to 5,1% for the three years from 5% in 2013. The estimates for the European Union point to an increase in unemployment to 11,1% in 2014 this year from 10,9% in 2013 with a return to this level in 2016. France is expected to go from 10,9% in 2014 to 10,7% in 2016, while Germany stands out with a rate of 5,3% this year (stable compared to 2013), albeit marginally growing at 5,4% in the next two years. The USA should drop from 7,5% in 2013 to 7,2% this year, 6,8% in 2015 and 6,4% in 2016. Among the main countries, the heaviest rate is that of the South Africa which in the forecasts remains over 25%.
The global recovery of the labor market is held back by a demand deficit, the ILO points out, underlining that in many developed countries, the sharp cuts in public spending and tax increases on income and consumption weigh heavily on businesses and households. The lack of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies has also significantly increased uncertainty in the labor market, which makes employers very cautious in hiring and investing. Even if many sectors grind profits, notes the report, these mostly end up on the financial markets and not in the real economy, which damages long-term employment prospects. Overall, employment is not expanding enough to keep pace with the growing workforce. Since the onset of the 2008 crisis, the employment gap has only widened and the ILO estimates that this 'gap' has reached 62 million jobs, including the 'discouraged' and the 7 million inactive, i.e. those who prefer not to participate in the labor market. If the current trend continues, in 2018 the number of unemployed will rise by another 13 million to a total of 215 million. During this period there will be 40 million net new job creations each year, less than the 42,5 million people entering the market looking for work each year. As a result, the global unemployment rate should remain about half a point higher than in the pre-crisis period. Informal employment remains widespread, especially in emerging countries, and the path towards quality employment is slowing down. In 2013, the number of workers in extreme poverty, i.e. living on less than $1,25 a day, decreased by only 2,7% globally, one of the lowest rates in the last 10 years. Currently about 375 million workers live with their families on less than $1,25 a day and about 839 million on less than $2.
