In January the'inflation brakes in Italy. According to preliminary estimates, in the first month of 2023 the national consumer price index for the entire community, gross of tobacco, recorded an increase in 0,2% on a monthly and del 10,1% every year. Numbers still high but far from the + 11,6% in December 2022. The National Institute of Statistics writes it in the monthly report.
What disappoints the markets, however, is the underlying figure. L'core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, rose to +6% from +5,8% in December, while that excluding energy only remained stable at +6,2%.
Curbs the price of energy and the shopping cart (slightly)
But what is this trend reversal on an annual basis in prices due to? Behind the slowdown in inflation is the drop in regulated energy goods, which drop from +70,2% to -10,9% year on year and, to a lesser extent, those of unregulated energy (from +63,3, 59,6% to +XNUMX%). However, tensions on consumer prices remain strong for various product categories, including processed foods (+14,9% to +15,2%), i non-durable goods (from +6,1% to +6,8%) and house services (from +2,1% to +3,2%), which contribute to the slight acceleration of the underlying component.
Again on an annual basis, the figure also slows down slightly food goods, for home and personal care, the so-called shopping cart, down from +12,6% to +12,2%, while that of high-frequency purchase products is accentuated (from +8,5% to +9%), such as foodstuffs, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco, rent and household expenses, fuel, urban transport, newspapers and periodicals, restaurant services and of assistance.
Eurozone inflation slows more than expected to 8,5%
Eurozone inflation is expected to come in at 8,5% in January, down from 9,2% in December and below the 8,9% expected by analysts. This is what emerges from the preliminary data of the European Statistical Office (Eurostat). Among the individual components, the figure for energy prevails (17,2%, compared to 25,5% in December). Among the countries with the highest inflation rates Latvia (21,6%) Estonia (18,8%) and Lithuania (18,4%). At the opposite Spain e Luxembourg (5,8%).
On a monthly basis, there was a decrease of 0,4% in line with what was seen in December, against the +0,1% of the consensus. While core inflation – which excludes energy, food and tobacco – remained stable at 5,2% (same as the previous month and +5,4% expectations). Harmonized inflation, ie excluding the food and energy components, is expected at 7% from the +6,9% of the previous month and of the consensus.
Even though inflation in the euro area fell more than expected in January, the upward pressure on prices has not abated. Reason why the hope of a less aggressive ECB remains remote.
