DRAGONS WAKE UP THE BULL. US EMPLOYMENT TODAY. MPS EXPLODES IN THE HOPE OF THE SPANISH WEDDING
There is the imprint of Mario Draghi in the awakening of the stock exchanges, after a week of high tension. The president of the ECB played in advance, without waiting for the meeting of the ECB on 22 January, taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the request for clarification by the European parliamentarian Luke Flanagan. In his reply Draghi writes that the Governing Council will closely monitor the “risks to price developments over the medium term” adding that “should it prove necessary to manage the risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation, the Governing Council will be unanimous in its commitment to use other unconventional tools within the scope of its mandate”. That is, European Quantitative Easing “could involve the purchase of a variety of assets, one of which may be the purchase of sovereign bonds”.
That was enough to reawaken the dormant spirits of the price lists: Tokyo +0,5% consolidates the robust rebound on the eve. The rise of the other Stock Exchanges was more robust: Sydney +1,4%, Hong Kong +1,2%. Euphoria returns to Wall Street: Dow Jones and Nasdaq up 1,84%. The S&P500 index +1,7% in two days recovered 3% erasing the negative start of 2015. Today the spotlight is on on US employment data: an increase of 240 workers is expected, confirming the recovery .
RECORD BUSINESS PLACE. THE SPREAD DROP BY 13 POINTS
The rise of the European Stock Exchanges, which exploded after the publication of the letter, was even stronger. In Piazza Affari, as usual the most sensitive and volatile list, the FtseMib index rose by 3,7%. The hope that the capital increase of Banco de Santander (7,5 billion) was also linked to the purchase of Mps (+12%) was also decisive, a hypothesis denied in the evening by the Iberian group. The other lists were brilliant: Frankfurt rose by 3,36%, London by 2,34%, Paris by 3,59% and Madrid by 2,26%.
The reaction of the bond markets was also immediate. The spread between the BTP and the Bund narrowed by 13 points from 146 to 133 bp. The yield on the Italian 1,84-year bond is 13%. On Tuesday 5,5 the Treasury will offer between 7 and 3,5 billion Btp at 7 and XNUMX years.
This morning, however, the European Stock Exchanges opened in red: Piazza Affari -0,94%, Frankfurt, Paris and London -0,3%.
FLY SIENA. BUT THE SANTANDER DOES NOT CONFIRM THE ITALIAN TRACK
The great protagonist of the session was Monte Paschi +12,4% inflamed by the news arriving from Spain. The Banco de Santander, suspended on the Madrid Stock Exchange, has announced a capital increase of 7,5 billion with the exclusion of option rights. The news was immediately linked to an upcoming purchase by the Sienese bank with immediate effect on prices and trading volume (169 million shares traded).
In reality, the note released by the institute led by Ana Botìn makes no mention of Italy or even less of Mps. The capital increase, we read, will serve to finance the organic growth of the group and reformulate the dividend policy, returning to remunerating the shareholders mainly in cash. "The strengthening of the capital - continues the press release - will allow Santander to fully seize the economic growth on the markets in which it is present”, In the euro area mention is made of Spain, Portugal and Germany but not of Italy or even less of Mps.
THE CARIGE RACE CONTINUES. FINECO: +61% THE 2014 HARVEST
The Draghi effect was felt on the rest of the credit sector. Unicredit rises by 4,82%. JP Morgan reiterated the Overweight recommendation, reducing the target price to 7,70 euros from the previous 7,90 euros. Great recovery of Bper +5% and Popolare Milano +4,12%. Entente also runs +5,52%.
Finally, a new leap for Banca Carige +8,25%, still awaiting the entry of Andrea Bonomi. The American Apollo fund, the Anglo-American Bridge Center Partners and the Malacalza family are also interested in the 20% stake held by the Foundation. Brilliant Mediolanum +2,73%. In the evening, the board of Fininvest asked the Bank of Italy for an extension for the establishment of the trust in which to park the shares of Silvio Berlusconi to be sold after the conviction of the leader of Forza Italia. Fineco Bank +0,53% to 4,54 euro: total net funding in 2014 was 4 billion euro, an increase of 61%.
CAMPARI SUPERSTAR THANKS TO NOMURA
Record session for Campari +4,7% after the promotion of Nomura to "buy" with a target price raised to 6,2 from 5,5 euros. The broker, positive on the sector's prospects (with the exception of Diageo downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to the drop in sales in China), recommends buying the Italian stock because it is at a discount compared to the sector. “Our meeting with the management in December . reads the report – gave us confidence on an improvement in performance in 2015”. Campari was up 4,2% to 5,315 euros in the final session. The stock ended 2014 with a 15% loss. Well bought also Autogrill +4,61% recovery after the losses of the last period.
ENEL RESTRUCTURES THE DEBT. PUFF OF OXYGEN FOR ENI
Another highlighted stock Enel +4,53% in the wake of rumors relating to negotiations with a syndicate of banks to extend a 2020 billion credit line by two years, until 9,4, with the aim of making the debt structure and to lower its cost. “Furthermore – commented Banca Akros – the operation represents a further important step in the reorganization process that the company is successfully pursuing, not only at an organizational level”.
Recovery day for oil companies. Eni gained 3,89%. Saipem +2,10%, Tenaris +2,13%. Crude oil prices rebounded after the week's losses (-10%). Crude Wti rose to 49,19 (+40 cents). Meanwhile, the first victim of the collapse in prices is registered in the world of shale oil: the Texan Wbh Energy declared bankruptcy yesterday.
FINMECCANICA, THE ORDER PORTFOLIO RICHEST
Finmeccanica also under the spotlight +5,09% driven by expectations that the final phase of the negotiations for the sale of AnsaldoBreda and Ansaldo Sts could start shortly, in addition to the news on various contracts signed at the end of the year by some subsidiaries, which could allow the group to beat analysts' expectations on orders for 2014. Prysmian also performed well +3,03%: Natixis reiterated its buy recommendation by raising the target price from 17,5 to 18 euros. In the rest of the price list, the drop of Yoox -2%, victim of the profit warning of the British Boohoo.com and, outside the main basket, the crash of Amplifon -5,35% should be noted.
