After 2014, for Italy the International Monetary Fund foresees "a convergence towards a structural balance in line with the Italian fiscal rules, which imply corrective measures over a few years", but not yet identified. This is what we read in the Fiscal Monitor, the report published by the IMF during the spring work of the institute underway in Washington.
The projections, specifies the institute, include the announced fiscal policy outlined in the 2014 budget plan while the new government's fiscal proposals, which arrived after the drafting of the report, remain outside.
The IMF, which highlighted the need to review public spending, recalled that in Italy "a spending review is underway to identify savings of 32 billion euros in three years".
Looking at the numbers, the Italian deficit should settle at 2,7% of GDP in 2014 (more than the 2,1% estimated in October) and fall to 1,8% next year (unchanged from previous estimates), after 3 % of last year. Starting in 2014, the deficit should progressively decline to 0,2% of GDP in 2019. The primary surplus should be 2,3% of GDP this year and rise to 3,3% in 2015 and to 4,5% the following year. As regards public debt, after 132,5% in 2013, it should settle at 134,5% of GDP this year (from 133,1% estimated in October) and at 133,1% in 2015 (+1,3 % compared to the previous estimate), to then gradually drop to 121,7% of GDP in 2019.
Furthermore, the need for financing will be equal to 28,4% of GDP in 2014 (against 25,7% of debt that will mature), rising to 29% in 2015 (against 27,2% of debt maturing) and 23,9% the following year (23,1% the maturing debt).
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Italy will reach a structurally balanced budget in 2016. The statistical tables show that a structural deficit of 0,8% of GDP is expected for the current year, which should be reduced to 0,5%. % in 2015, to break even the following year.
