The current economic framework of the Southern Mediterranean countries appears extremely varied due to the action of factors both of an economic nature (above all dynamics of the European economy) and of a different political nature (stabilization underway in Tunisia and Egypt and intensification of the civil war in Libya and Syria). In the 2013 i Southern Mediterranean countries have seen overall a deceleration of GDP to 2,3% (from 4,5% in 2012) due to a slowdown both in net oil exporting countries (with a 13,6% drop in GDP in Libya and a slowdown, due to a 4,4% contraction in the hydrocarbon component, in 2,8% in Algeria), and of the countries with the most diversified economies in the region (Tunisia and Egypt, respectively growing by 2,3% and 2,1% against 3,9% and 2,2% per year previous) with the only exception of the Morocco where the GDP, thanks to the rebound in agricultural production, instead accelerated to 4,4% (up from 2,7% in 2012). The slowdown was also observed in the countries bordering the eastern Mediterranean, where alongside the deceleration in Jordan and Lebanon there was a collapse in Syria's GDP (estimated at around 19% by the IMF) as a result of the civil war. GDP growth in Turkey and Israel up on 2012 (but slowing down during the year). The most recent forecasts published by Intesa Sanpaolo indicate a new acceleration in the GDP growth rate of the area in the two-year period 2015 and 2016 (to 3,6% and 4,0% respectively from the 2,3% expected in 2014). However, the risks of these forecasts still remain oriented towards the downside due to both the fragility of the international situation (particularly in the EU, the area's major trading partner) and political and military tensions. For almost all the countries of the South Mediterranean the greatest contribution to growth also came in 2013 from domestic demand, above all from consumption, which benefited from the increase in average income, from relatively low levels, and to a lesser extent, of investments, especially public ones, aimed at making up for the underdevelopment of infrastructure and civilian housing. The largest part of these interventions was financed by the State directly or in joint ventures with private companies, above all foreign. For most of the period foreign trade, on the other hand, subtracted from the GDP due to a more sustained dynamics of imports compared to that of exports.
In countries directly affected by political turmoil (Egypt, Tunisia) and civil war (Libya and Syria) but also in other countries less directly affected (Jordan, Morocco) the expansion of current expenditure both in wages (see the generous increases in public employment) and in subsidies and the contraction of revenues due to the deterioration of the economy have led in recent years to a substantial widening of the public deficit and debt in relation to the GDP. As of 2014, the lower risks of internal tensions in Tunisia e Egypt, in the stabilization phase, has led the same countries to start Deficit reduction policies focused on cutting subsidies on fuels, foodstuffs and tidying up tariffs so as to put public finances back on a sustainable path. In the fiscal year 2014, in Egypt the financing of almost all of the needs of the public sector was made possible by direct purchases by the Central Bank and by commercial banks. In particular, between 2011 and 2012 the monetary authorities of the countries most affected by political upheavals (such as Egypt and Tunisia) or with large current account imbalances (Jordan e Turkey) had raised interest rates to contain downward pressure on currencies and inflationary pressures either imported or due to domestic dysfunction. Since 2013, the easing of tensions and the deterioration of the economic situation had led the same countries to partially reverse the previous restrictive action. During 2014, however, renewed inflationary pressures, determined in some cases by non-cyclical factors such as the cut in subsidies aimed at bringing the public finances under control, and currency, have favored new increases by the Central Banks in various countries. Since 2011, political tensions have accentuated the historical trend of nominal depreciation of the currencies of countries that follow a regime of controlled floating (Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia) or free floating (Turkey), with inflation rates higher than those of their trading partners and real exchange rates which tend to appreciate above their long-term equilibrium level. During 2014 currencies were affected by new downward pressures, reflecting a movement common to many emerging currencies as the dollar strengthens.
The South Mediterranean is a very inhomogeneous area if one looks at the structure of the economy. There are Countries with advanced economies (eg Israel) which host numerous high-tech industries, or in any case with a good degree of development in both the manufacturing and service sectors (such as Turkey). Next to them there are Countries such as Algeria and Libya heavily dependent on hydrocarbon extraction and vulnerable to the oil cycle and others with a relatively diversified economic structure. Some of these (such as Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) have reached a good degree of development of the manufacturing sector, albeit with transformation industries still mainly linked to the primary sector and to productions with high intensity of work and medium-low technological content, and others in the service sector (such as Jordan and Lebanon). Lebanon also has an advanced banking sector that attracts capital from residents abroad and from Gulf countries. In various countries of the South Mediterranean, specifically Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Syria and Turkey, the agricultural sector still maintains a significant weight (between 10% and 20% of GDP) and occupies a significant share of the workforce. And if all this is reflected in significant differences considering the degree of economic and social development, a relatively backward stage of economic development characterizes the two oil economies of Algeria e Libya, where the wealth generated by hydrocarbons not set aside in sovereign wealth funds has been and is largely used to support current public spending, while infrastructures show obvious shortcomings and the role of the private sector in the economy is marginal.
In 2013, the world trade of the countries on the southern shores of the Mediterranean amounted to approximately 994 billion dollars, equal to 2,7% of the world total. Interchange volumes saw a contraction of 0,2% on 2012 (after a growth of 5,9% on 2011). In detail, exports, equal to approximately 407 billion (2,3% of the world total) decreased by 4,9% while imports, equal to approximately 587 billion (3,1% of the world total) grew by 3,3, XNUMX%. The sectoral structure of trade sees in imports from the region a prevalence of energy minerals, largely intended for consumption or transformation. In 2013 they constituted over 20% of the total imported. Machinery follows in importance, with a share of more than 20%, agro-food products (about 11% of total imports), metals (over 10% of the total, mainly used for transformation into more complex products). The means of transport (9%) are also imported to satisfy domestic demand, but also to be subsequently exported once they have undergone further stages of processing, for the presence on the territory of production lines of some important European car manufacturers (Fiat in Tunisia, Renault in Morocco). Chemicals (8%) are used in the processing of petroleum products, in industrial processes and in the treatment of minerals. The rubber and plastic sectors (6%) and textiles and clothing (6%) are also important, the latter especially in the Maghreb countries and in Egypt. As for trends, in 2013 imports of minerals fell by 9,3% while machinery saw an increase of almost 11%. Means of transport also grew by 5% while agro-food products saw a contraction of 0,4%. Metals also fell, albeit slightly (-0,2%), while chemical products recorded an increase of 2,4%. Rubber and plastics, as well as textiles and clothing grow by about 7%. As regards the structure of exports, they are largely made up of minerals, especially energy (about 33%) followed by machinery (13%), textile and clothing products (11%), chemical products (9%), glass and ceramic stones (8%) and agro-food products (8%), means of transport (6%). Machinery, agro-food, chemicals and the "fashion" sector show a particular relevance for Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Turkey.
Based on the data UNCTAD, the stock of FDI in the Mediterranean countries was around 540 billion at the end of 2013, equal to around 2,1% of the world total. Turkey is the market that most attracted the interest of foreign investors: in 2013 over 145 billion were invested. Followed by Israel with 88 billion dollars and Egypt with 85. Inflows of FDI in 2013 amounted to 41,7 billion, down on the previous year by 0,7%. Due to the war events and the persistence of political uncertainty, there are contractions or absence of flows in Syria and Libya (-51%). Furthermore, on the basis of data from the Ministry of Economic Development, from 1992 to 2012 Italian FDI poured into Mediterranean countries for approximately 12 billion euros, of which approximately 5 billion in favor of Egypt alone. Investments in Algeria (almost 4 billion) and in Turkey (over 1 billion) are also important. There are many Italian companies operating in this scenario. Based on the MAE data, there are about 940 economic people mostly in the sectors of energy and oil refining, textiles and fashion, infrastructure and construction, cement and construction, metallurgy and transport. Italian companies are present through their own factories and forms of collaboration with local players aimed at direct production both towards the growing internal demand and exports, carrying out part of the production process on site.
