The Italian export started in 2025 with a trend growth of 2,5% in value, but with a reduction of 2,6% in volume, highlighting an increase in prices rather than in exported quantities. However, the global trade war, unleashed by US President Donald Trump could significantly affect exports. The trade balance is already worsening compared to the previous year, closing January with a deficit of 264 million euros, a sharp decline compared to the surplus of 2.495 million in January 2024. The energy deficit increased from 4.233 to 4.693 million euros, while the surplus in non-energy products decreased from 6.728 to 4.428 million. The introduction of “reciprocal” duties could further aggravate this situation, putting at risk the competitiveness of Italian companies on international markets.
Italian exports growing, but with sectors at risk
Le exports recorded a cyclical increase of 0,6%, with a positive trend towards EU markets (+1,8%), while sales to the non-EU countries show a slight decline (-0,6%). On an annual level, cross-border sales grew in value by 2,5%, with a more pronounced increase in non-EU markets (+3,3%) than in EU markets (+1,9%).
From the point of view sectoral, the major contributions come from:
- Pharmaceutical articles, chemical-medicinal and botanical: +33,6%.
- Foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco: +7,4%.
- Basic metals and fabricated metal products (excluding machinery and equipment): +6,4%.
On the other hand, they register cali important in some sectors, including:
- Motor vehicles: -15,8%.
- Coke and refined petroleum products: -16,7%.
- Clothing and leather goods: -9,2%.
Italian imports growing strongly: boom from non-EU countries
Imports grew significantly, with an increase of 8,8% year-on-year in value and 4,1% in volume. Growth was driven by purchases from non-EU countries (+18,0%), while those from the EU area recorded +2,2%. At the same time, import prices increased by 0,4% month-on-month and by 1,4% year-on-year.
For sectoral, stand out: chemical substances and products; base metals and metal products; pharmaceutical products.
Increases in consumer goods And in the energy prices
- consumer goods purchases increased by 16,8% on an annual basis, with the non-durable goods (+16%) which recorded the most marked growth, while durable goods recorded a +25,1%. intermediate goods increased by 9,3%, capital goods remained almost unchanged (+0,7%). As regards theenergy, a more modest growth of 4,5% was recorded.
The price increase was more marked in the intermediate goods (+2,7%) and in energy sector (+7,3%), due to the increase in crude oil prices. On the contrary, the prices of consumer goods (-1,7%) and capital goods (-0,5%) are decreasing.
Italian exports: Switzerland grows, China collapses
The main markets of Destination of Italian exports show contrasting trends. While Italian exports to China fell by 24,1%, the markets that provided the greatest contributions to exports were:
- Switzerland: +13,6%
- United Kingdom: +12,1%
- Czech Rep.: + 30,8%
- OPEC countries: +10,5%
In this regard, the increase in import prices and export slowdown to China are two risk factors for this year. However, the growth of exports to Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic and OPEC countries represents an opportunity, especially in the higher value-added sectors.
