Sicut Mediolanum, simula Rome. What will happen in Milan will also happen in Rome. Whoever wins the race for President of Lombardy will also determine the formation of the new government. Until last Sunday, there were three candidates running to win: Umberto Ambrosoli, supported by the centre-left and indicated first by mayor Pisapia; Gabriele Albertini, head of a "civic" coalition, which is backed by Monti, Casini and a part of CL (the MEP Mario Mauro); Roberto Maroni, who after many hesitations became the leader of the Lega-Pdl alliance.
The victory of Umberto Ambrosoli, currently around 35%, would pave the way for Bersani towards Palazzo Chigi. In fact, it is very probable that the driving effect on the political elections will trigger the regional majority bonus for Pd-Sel in the Senate. A success by Maroni, who is almost on par with Ambrosoli in the polls, would force Bersani to come to terms with a weak and disappointed List Monti, would give rise to a government with a narrow margin of votes in the Senate and very likely to end up like the last Prodi. How long can Monti and Vendola last together?
Perhaps Albertini is offside. The polls gave him far behind (around 11 percent), but they had been taken at a time when he had disappeared from the scene (Monti's ascent, Berlusconi's return, etc…). The former mayor, who had been indicated by Roberto Formigoni, waited calmly for the electoral campaign to get underway for the Region as well, with the possibility of having the driving force behind the Monti List to which he adheres. Still at the end of last week, Corriere della Sera anticipated the probable birth of a List for Lombardy, headed by Formigoni, which would side with Albertini's Movement and the policies with Monti.
The twist took place on Monday 7 January. Formigoni, with a sensational about-face, has decided to support Maroni, return to the PDL and help write the programme. With a "mystery" still to be resolved: it seemed that the former Governor should be the leader of the PDL for the Region. The same interested party had let him guess, but at the same time Berlusconi declared live on a local TV: "We will not present any outgoing councilor" (causing panic in the patrol of the former).
The result of this reversal of scenarios could also be lethal for Monti, who risks failure precisely in Lombardy, where he could hope to obtain the necessary votes to be firmly "indispensable" in the Senate and condition the birth of the new government. How to fix? In a countermove, which says it all about Albertini's limited chances of beating the Ambrosoli-Maroni couple, the former mayor should also be a candidate for the Monti List in the Senate. In this way, perhaps, the result of the policies could be less compromised.
Those who seem to emerge from this affair with broken bones are Communion and Liberation and the Compagnia delle Opere. The movement has split. Mauro and Formigoni seemed united in their support for Monti, then for Albertini, while the vice president of the Chamber Maurizio Lupi immediately declared his loyalty to the Pdl. Then, after the Berlusconi-Maroni agreement, the axis shifted with the former Governor's choice to stay close to the Knight. Choice, to tell the truth, not exactly official, but practically safe. Formigoni will run for the Senate with a "safe" place even for a loyalist of him, while the "Clear Formigonians" would have ten places on the list for the Regionals. This is the price agreed with Berlusconi and, indirectly, with Maroni, who until January 5 Formigoni had defined as "fatal".
A little overwhelmed by the vicissitudes of his adversaries, who occupied space in the newspapers and on TV, now Ambrosoli's race also begins, which the polls - as we have written - give Maroni by a neck. The son of the bourgeois hero, however, does not fully convince the Democratic Party, which fears his inexperience. For this unofficial but not so secret reason, the regional secretary Maurizio Martina has given up his position as head of the list in the Chamber, to become, in case of victory, the "executive" vice president of the Governor. A kind of protectorate.
