A year has passed since the inauguration of Mario Draghi characterized by a leap in the Reputation Rating to heights never reached by other Premiers, with his Government which certainly helped our country a lot to reposition itself at the center of the European arena, as demonstrated by the results of this year at the head of the G20, but not only.
On the other hand, a week of “buvette tussle” to review in foreign newspapers uninspiring comments regarding Italian politics, and this occurs at a time when the implementation of projects that fulfill the missions of the PNRR are entering a phase of great delicacy due to what the financial markets are also expressing in terms of volatility and nervousness, with the VIX returning to 40 points on January 24, not to mention geopolitical tensions not far from our borders.
"Don't look up”. The reference to the title of the much debated film with Leonardo Di Caprio and Jennifer Lawrence is not accidental but really wants to show how risky it could be to lose sight of that huge "meteorite" formed by high inflation and high public debt. A distraction that could be fatal for Italy. Focusing instead on possible solutions to avoid an explosion of the Italian economy is more and more necessary. The gaze must be attentive and concentrated on a horizon which, as we are seeing, shows rather worrying and imminent clouds and perturbations. Exactly like the forthcoming interest rate hikes from the Fed, from which Bloomberg expects 5 hikes by 25 basis points in the next 18 months. According to Goldman Sachs, 4 upward adjustments will arrive as early as 2022.
Predictions that provoked themarket reaction, with equities starting a downward correction, while real bond yields, and in particular government bonds, began to rise. With advance to the "ides of March" the end of the games for the "tapering" and therefore for the purchases of Treasuries will be sanctioned, while the differential between the 2 and the 10 years drops to the lowest since September 2020 at 63 basis points.
In this context it is to be taken into consideration the outlook of the World Economic Forum just published, in the title of which the words "interrupted recovery and higher inflation" stand out, while the text places the emphasis on a growth that from 5,9% in 2021 will decrease this year to 4,4% and 3,8 .2023% in 5,6. At the basis of this correction are the USA and China, united by a common destiny. US growth will drop from 2021% in 2,6 to 4% next year, going from 2022% in 8,1. China's will drop from +2021% in 4,8 to 2022% in 5,2, then go back to +5,2% next year. As far as the European Union is concerned, the more than optimistic post-pandemic forecasts have been reduced: they will go from +2,5% to a future 2023% in XNUMX.
The driving force of the Pnrr and global growth forecasts could undergo major changes due to geopolitical risks and possible sanctions against Russia, which in any case would not help Biden's approval rating that much, now at its lowest terms, but above all they would not get than a further knock-on effect on energy prices, inflation and the European banks most exposed to Russia.
Returning to Italy, at the end of the year it was sent to the Chambers the report on the state of implementation of the PNRR and the evidence of the 51 objectives achieved and necessary to obtain the release of the over 24 billion euros foreseen for the past year by Brussels. And we are already looking at the installments of 2022 which they see well 102 goals and objectives to be achieved, a double load compared to 2021, which include very important reforms and laws aimed at the world of education, the productive world, also passing through the establishment of a certification system on gender equality and incentive mechanisms for businesses , a challenge within the challenge, for the profound social and cultural implications it entails.
Le gender inequalities they take the form of an important social cost and are passed on to the new generations, for whom the efficient outcome of the environmental and digital transition are major challenges. Addressable and central challenges for our country that must be undertaken in the wake of a European strategy for equal rights that offers essential and very clear guidelines, also in the outcome of the numbers for economic development.
From the report of the Minister of the Economy Franco it is clear how the trajectory of Italian growth it should consolidate at a level of 4% or more for this year, therefore halfway between the more conservative estimates of the Bank of Italy and the more generous ones of ISTAT. Forecasts that underline the growth of the country's productive potential and the importance of the tax reform as the cornerstone of the recovery thus outlined. Faced with these challenges, the political tussle is out of place and worries above all the international markets and investors. The digital and environmental transition, at the basis of European funds, as well as social inclusion, with widespread investments in human capital and social infrastructures, will be able to lead to an improvement in working dynamics, possibly benefiting from the effectiveness of the reform system, only with a firm and determined political direction.
A government that has not understood how crucial these issues are and the monitoring of the timetable and therefore of respecting the times will not be able to obtain the desired results and that opportunity for success on imminent dangers to guarantee a virtuous post-pandemic transition for the future of Italy. It is only to be hoped that the Premier's gaze is directed exclusively upwards, leaving out the background noise.
