Duties and oil. After the decisions of the Fed and the ECB, central banks leave center stage to the increasingly dangerous dispute over customs tariffs. On Friday, the US, as anticipated, raised the rates by 25% on 1.102 products arriving from China, for a total of 50 billion dollars. In the absence of an agreement with Beijing, the measures will take effect on July 6. A few hours later the response from Beijing arrived on 659 goods made in the USA, for a similar amount.
EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN, CHINESE SQUARES ON HOLIDAY
The Japanese Stock Exchange (-0,9%) lost ground this morning despite the good export results in May, and the Korean Kospi (-2,7% Samsung). The markets of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are missing, closed today for the Dragon holiday, but the earthquake that hit Osaka contributes to accentuating the concerns of the Rising Sun.
OPEC, ARM OF IRON ON THE ROOF OF PRODUCTION
Oil is also losing blows again, traded this morning at 72,45 dollars a barrel, down 1.% and at its lowest for six weeks. Quotations are being depressed by the fear of a split within Opec, which is about to meet on Friday in Vienna. The representative of Iran said over the weekend that there are three founding members (Venezuela and Iraq as well as Tehran) ready to veto the request to increase production by about XNUMX million barrels of oil per day, coming soon. from Saudi Arabia, Russia and allies, necessary to compensate for the decline in production in Venezuela.
The yen appreciates to 110,4 against the dollar, while the US currency appreciates against the euro. Gold rebounded slightly to $1.278 an ounce from 1,7% on Friday.
EUROS BELOW 1,16. TODAY MEETING ITALY/GERMANY
The euro opens the week down, at 1,159 against the dollar, accentuating the trend inaugurated by the decisions of the ECB summit (last week it lost 1,3%). The latest threat to the stability of the single currency comes from Germany, where there is a risk of a government crisis over the issue of immigration. Yesterday evening the heads of the CDU met in the Berlin headquarters with Angela Merkel, on the agenda the latest measures launched by the interior minister Horst Seehofer, the representative of the party area that disputes Merkel on the issues of welcoming migrants.
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will travel to Berlin today. At the center of the talks with Chancellor Merkel, in addition to the issue of immigration, also the Banking Union, in view of the European meeting at the end of June.
The economics and finance document will arrive in the Italian Parliament this week: the government has confirmed that it wants to put the stop to the increases in VAT rates envisaged under current legislation at the top of its priorities. During the week, Economy Minister Giovanni Tria will make his debut at the Eurogroup on Thursday and at Ecofin on Friday.
FED AND BOJ GUESTS OF DRAGONS IN PORTUGAL
Archived Fed meetings e ECB important appointments on the monetary policy front will not be missing. The Bank of England meeting will be held this week: a quarter point increase in rates is expected. No change in sight, however, for the cost of money (below zero) of the Swiss central bank.
More complicated are the decisions that will have to be taken by the central banks of Brazil and Mexico, put under pressure by the rise of the dollar after the increase in US rates. Brazil, in particular, sacrificed more than $15 billion in dollar reserves to prop up the real. Even more delicate is the situation of the Turkish lira, on the eve of next Sunday's elections, which is under fire despite rates having been raised to 16%.
From today to Wednesday, guests of the ECB at the castle of Sintra in Portugal, the big central bankers will meet, the first opportunity for discussion after the decision to proceed with the end of Qe. In addition to host Mario Draghi, Fed chairman Jerome Powell and Boj governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak. There is great anticipation for the speech by Lawrence Summers tonight: the former US Treasury secretary, already a proponent of extraordinary interventions against "secular stagnation" will speak "Monetary policy in times of low inflation and low rates".
DIVIDENDS FROM EXOR, POSTE AND SNAM
The agenda of Piazza Affari this morning foresees the distribution of the dividend of a large group of listed securities.
Among the blue chips, the coupon will be detached: Exor 0,35 euro; Poste Italiane €0,42; Snam 0,1293 as the balance of a total of 0,2155 euro - 0,0862 euro already detached as an advance in January 2018; Stm $0,06; Terna 0,145737 as the balance of a total of 0,22 euro – 0,074263 euro already detached as an advance in November 2017; Telecom Italia Savings 0,0275. The following coupons complete the picture: Acea 0,63 euro; Autogrill €0,19; FNM €0,02; Hera €0,095; Iren 0,07 euros; Digitouch €0,04; Fervi 0,15 euros.
RELAY IN CDP, HOT CDA FOR ACEA
The assembly of the CDP will be held on Wednesday for the renewal of the top management. The Acea board meeting will be held on Thursday, the first after the resignation of the chairman Luca Lanzalone.
On the macro front, the data on the trend of industrial production in the Eurozone is arriving.
In the USA, spotlights on the trend of the real estate business. On the corporate front come the accounts of Oracle and Fedex.
