The Italian economy is growing albeit slowly and Confindustria becomes more optimistic: the estimates of the Italian domestic product are revised upwards and those of the unemployment rate downwards.
However, the Confindustria Study Center highlights the prevailing political uncertainty in Europe and warns of the Italian situation: any political instability could weaken investment incentives.
Tornado to estimates, for 2016 Confindustria expects an increase in GDP of 0,9%, up compared to the +0,7% previously estimated. In 2017, however, growth in Italy rose to +0,8% from the previous +0,5%. In 2018, a round growth of 1% will finally be achieved. Based on what we read in the volume Economic Scenarios, presented today and closed on 8 December, the reason for the increase lies in the better performance of the economy recorded in the current year. Furthermore, according to the General Confederation of Italian Industry, the Budget law will also contribute, which provides for greater flexibility in the GDP deficit ratio and fiscal stimulus on investments.
As regards the deficit-GDP ratio, Confindustria forecasts: 2,4% in 2016 (was 2,5) and 2,5% in 2017 (was 2,3%). The forecasts of the Confindustria Study Center are for a debt of 132,7% of GDP in 2016 and 133,4% in 2017.
Another good news comes from the estimates regarding the Italian unemployment rate which will settle at 11,4% in 2016 (the previous estimate was 11,5%), while in 2017 it will drop to 11%, from the previous 11,2 . In 2018 the expected unemployment rate is 10,5%. Total employment (ULA) should instead grow by 1,1% this year and by 0,6% next year.
