Although the Government has revised downwards expectations for Italy's growth in 2012 according to Intesa Sanpaolo the forecasts are still too optimistic. According to the latest study by the credit institution the deficit/GDP ratio in 2012 will be 2%, a figure higher than the 1,7% estimated by the Government in the corrective maneuver approved on 14 September. The executive's goal of reducing the deficit/GDP ratio to 1,7% next year "does not appear entirely unrealistic", he explains Chiara Manetti economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, "but according to our forecasts, GDP growth should slow down more than estimated by the Government". According to the forecasts of the Intesa Sanpaolo study centre, the Italian economy should grow by 0,3% next year, less than expected by the executive, which last September 22 reduced its 2012 GDP estimate to 0,7 % from 1,1%.
It follows that also the emissions of the Italian state will increase. The Treasury will have to pay about 440 billion euros to meet maturing securities in 2012, 24 billion more than this year's 416 billion. The Studies and Research service of Intesa Sanpaolo specified that "in the Btp and CCTeu segment, issues should rise by approximately 10 billion compared to 2011, for a total of 189 billion euro".
In 2011, the data on the public sector borrowing requirement for the first eight months of the year are compatible with the objective of reducing the cash requirement to 65 billion euro - from 67 billion in 2010. In 2012, however, the tax authorities should finish 32 billion euros that the Treasury would procure entirely through the government bond market, against a negative contribution from funding and foreign issues. But also for this figure the value is higher than the 28 billion provided by the Government.
