La Budget Law 2023, the number 1 of the Meloni government, comes alive. On Monday it will be approved by the Council of Ministers, today, Friday 18 November, the prime minister convened a majority summit to call the parties that support her to make an effort to make concrete the maneuver which - at least in the prime minister's intentions - will contain some flagship measures to characterize the change wanted by the government, but it will also have to remain oriented towards concreteness. The maneuver will have a range of 30-35 billion, 21 of which are in deficit and will be involved in support measures for families and businesses to reduce the cost of electricity and gas bills. Coverage will have to be found for the rest.
The 2023 Budget Law will also include theincrease from 1.000 to 5.000 euros in the cash limit, a measure heralded by the League as essential but removed in extremis from the decree Aid quater (today its publication in the Official Gazette is expected) after the surveys of the Quirinale. In fact, the necessary and urgent requirements are missing to be able to include it in the decree-law just approved by the government. So let's see the main measures of the 2023 Budget Law that the government should adopt on Monday.
Budget Law 2023: fiscal peace yes, flat tax perhaps
In the tax package there will be the so-called fiscal peace or "fiscal truce" as Deputy Minister Leo prefers to call it. Expected discounts on folders or their cancellation. All tax bills up to 1.000 euros and up to 2015 will in fact be cancelled. Those up to 3 euros (until 2015) will be reduced by 50%; interest and penalties could be completely cancelled. A new installment of payments is also possible for those who have failed to honor them on time in the last 3 years: they will have more time but without penalties. Furthermore, a «voluntary disclosure» for the return of capital from abroad is being studied, but which should not also lead to a cancellation of criminal liability. It could bring in state coffers from 3 to 5 billion according to initial estimates.
The fate of the so-called is more uncertain incremental flat tax which could be postponed and entrusted to a subsequent more comprehensive tax reform measure. The flat tax could be extended to 15% for the benefit of VAT matches and autonomous with revenues of up to 85 thousand euros (now the ceiling is 65 thousand). On the other hand, it is more difficult to introduce the incremental flat tax for i employees. The government is thinking about the possibility of an intervention to reduce the tax on productivity bonuses: up to 3 thousand euros with a 5% rate (now 10%), over 3 thousand euros at 15%, instead of progressive. Instead, the cut of the tax wedge by two points - instead of five - has been confirmed in favor of employees with incomes of up to 35 euros. The measure had been launched by the Draghi government for 2022 and will be extended.
2023 Budget Law: 103 quota for pensions
To avoid the return to the Fornero law from 1 January 2023, the government is thinking of a "share 103” or the possibility of retiring for those who have reached 41 years of contributions and at least 62 years of age. This will bypass quota 102 (64 years plus 38 contributions), which expires on December 31st. The measure would affect a potential audience of 50 workers, who could leave about one or two years earlier than the threshold now set for early retirement: 42 years and 10 months for men, 41 years and 10 months for women . The measure would cost 700 million but these are still estimates to be focused. Quota 103 should only apply to 2023, pending an overall reform.
Citizenship income: how it could change
Il CBI it costs about 8 billion. Meloni has repeatedly said he wants to change it. But the operation is complex both due to the difficulty of finding work for people who often have a low level of education and little work experience behind them, and because the risk of recession exposes the weakest groups. Undersecretary of Labour Claudius Durigon he was prudent: “We are still in the study phase. We have proposed no longer extending it for life but with a precise timing for those who are able to work: 18 months of income with a six-month break with training and entry into the world of work, then a 12-month décalage. We arrive at a path of 36 months of income and then we exit”. These are the intentions.
Bridge over the Strait, extra profits from energy companies, flat rate coupon on shop rentals
In the meantime, the budget law could include the revocation of the liquidation status of the company Strait of Messina Spa. Over the years, the company, owned by Rfi, Anas (FS group), the Calabria and Sicily regions, has been involved in the design and feasibility studies of the work and was placed in liquidation by Palazzo Chigi in April 2013. At the moment there are be litigation and penalties for over 700 million. The appeal hearing has been set for September 2023.
Then there is talk of raising the tax extra profit tax. Following EU rules, the profits of energy companies will be taxed and no longer the VAT turnover. The rate could rise from 25% to 33%. Eni has already paid 1,4 billion to the state on the basis of the tax introduced by the Draghi government.
Finally, it could be included in the Budget law dry coupon on shop rentals. The 21% "flat tax" was introduced in 2019, when the financial maneuver introduced the possibility of applying it instead of the ordinary regime. However, the measure has not been confirmed: the possible turnaround, however, involves the difficult search for financial coverage.
