The week of European markets opens optimistically due to the Ukrainian counter-offensive which, it is hoped, will shorten the war; of the gas price below 200 euro Mwh; of theUS inflation which, tomorrow, will reveal whether it has peaked. L'euro meanwhile it is recovering, while the dollar retreats.
The session thus brings substantial gains to Business Square, +2,34% (closing at 22.654 basis points), Frankfurt + 2,39% Paris + 1,95% Madrid + 2,01% Amsterdam + 1,59% London + 1,69%.
Risk appetite strengthened in the afternoon with a matching opening of Wall Street, which is continuing to rise, after filing, last Friday, the first eighth in progress after three losses.
Superstar banks
In Europe, the magnets for purchases were above all the banks, driven by the prospect of greater earnings in the face of the ECB's rate hike (75 basis points, last week) and the positive shift in the interest rate on deposits. We are talking about 670 billion euros parked by the banks and which did not yield anything until last Thursday, while now they will be able to produce profits.
Weekly focus on US inflation
While awaiting the Fed's decisions at its September 20-21 meeting, investors' attention will be this week on theUS inflation. In particular, the data on consumer prices in August will be released tomorrow. It is estimated that annual inflation will come down to 8,1% from 8,5% in July, one percentage point below June, but “base rates”, excluding energy and food prices, will rise to 6,1% from 5,9%.
According to JP Morgan US inflation has already peaked and prices will drop in the coming months.
This does not mean that the progress of the central banks will stop and both the words of Jerome Powell and those of many members of the US board suggest that the Fed will intervene on rates with another 0,75% hike, the third in a few months.
In this context i Treasury yields two-year bonds rose to a 15-year high of 3,58% early, as markets have already fully priced in a 75 basis point Fed hike later this month. Futures markets then see the Fed's so-called “terminal rate” at around 4% in March.
The for the ECB the journey is not over: over the weekend the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, signaled the need for new decisive interventions on the interest rate front.
Euros on the upswing
The turnaround by the ECB supports the euro, which appreciates against the dollar by around 0,9%, at its highest level since mid-August, trading in the 1,013 area.
The index of the US currency against the main currencies is down by 0,7%. According to some observers, the lowering of geo-political risk, after the Ukrainian successes against Russia, helps to distance the safe haven par excellence.
The session looks positive for the GBPdespite the fact that the UK economy grew by just 0,2% in July, half as much as expected, with recession risks becoming more substantial.
Gas below 200 euros and oil on the rise
Even the drop in the price of gas futures below 200 euro megawatt hour (near the closure 191 euros, -7,7%).
According to the Minister of Ecological Transition Roberto Cingolani the merit d also goes to the discussion on the price ceiling. “It was enough to talk about the price cap and the price fell” he told Radio 24. “In the final resolution in Europe the 27 gave the mandate to make a proposal on the price cap by September. If this is a failure, someone explain to me what success is – she added, finally recalling that – unanimity is not needed, it is a qualified majority ”.
The weakening of the dollar favors the recovery of the oil prices, dealing in North American currency. Brent crude rose by 1,21% to 93,97 dollars a barrel.
Mps flies to Piazza Affari
The best title of Piazza Affari is Mps Bank, which after having lost so much ground today recovers 19,05% in view of the hyperdilutive capital increase of 2,5 billion euro. The rumors according to which the asset manager Anima would be willing to invest 250 million euros in the operation contributed to boosting the stock, in a sector in great shape throughout Europe. According to the coordinator of the economics and finance department of Fratelli d'Italia, Maurizio Leo, however, the decision on the capital increase should be postponed until the new government arrives.
The main index of Piazza Affari is on the other hand led by financial stocks, especially banks and asset management: Finecobank, +5,03%, is blue chip queen, followed by Bper + 4,97% Banca Mediolanum + 4,17% Intesa Sanpaolo + 3,43% General Bank + 3,71% Post + 3,26% Generali + 3,14%.
Outside the financial perimeter, the big caps with the strongest increases are Telecom + 3,91% Stellantis + 3,36% Saipem + 3,38%.
To show a little red shading is alone stm -0,05%.
Out of the main basket Fincantieri, +2,22%, toasts new deals for 1,7 billion euros with Viking. The two companies have made effective the contracts for the third and fourth vessels under the options announced in March 2018 and signed contracts for the fifth and sixth vessels, conditional on obtaining the related financing as per industry practice. Deliveries are expected in 2026, 2027 and two in 2028 respectively.
Bringing up the rear is instead Avio, -15,18%, which cut its guidance on EBITDA and net income this year on Friday evening due to higher energy costs.
Slightly decreasing spreads and yields
The secondary government bond market remained essentially stable, where the ten-year BTP rate fell slightly to +3,93% and that of the same-term Bund to +1,64%, for one spread to 229 basis points (-1,16%).
