Everything as planned or almost: the ECB cut rates today of 0,25% and European stocks close positive, animated among other things by the liaison between Unicredit (+2,88% in Milan) e Commerzbank (+3,7% in Frankfurt). Business Square it appreciates by 0,84%, in line with London +0,61% and Paris +0,5%, while they are more toned Frankfurt + 0,9% Amsterdam +1,02% and Madrid + 1,12%.
Overseas shows a more cautious trend Wall Street, with producer prices above expectations. Among the heavyweights, it shines Nvidia, +1,3%, fresh from yesterday's stellar performance (+8%), which raised morale on the New York Stock Exchange. On the other hand, it collapses Modern (-18%), the worst stock on the S&P 500, which announced a reduction of approximately 20% in investments in research and development (R&D) for the period 2025-2028.
On the foreign exchange market the dollar loses ground, while the euro strengthens for a cross with the greenback at 1,103 (+0,2%).
Among raw material gold and oil shine. Spot gold is trading strong above $2555 an ounce (+1,66%) and Brent and WTI futures are also appreciating by about 3%, respectively near $70 a barrel and $73. Crude oil is looking at the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that could block plants.
ECB unanimous, but October remains in limbo. Lagarde: Draghi's productivity report "formidable"
Despite the positive ending (but below the highs of the day) the European session today recorded some small swings in Correspondence of ECB decisions and words of Christine Lagarde to the press, and with theUS macro data release, where August producer prices partially disappointed expectations as happened yesterday with consumer prices.
Lagarde he did not dress up as a dove, on the contrary, he maintained the recent rhetoric"we do not commit to a predetermined rate path” he said. Today's decision was taken unanimously, but for October there is no certainty and perhaps not even any hope, given that the predominantly downside risks to economic growth do not justify, at the moment, a lower guard on inflation, which is gradually slowing down, in light of the dynamics of wages and the service sector. The Frankfurt inflation forecast remain unchanged from June over a 2026 horizon, while growth projections are adjusted downwards by one-tenth over all three years.
On this occasion Lagarde has Mario Draghi's report praised on productivity, calling it “formidable” because it “indicates concrete proposals for structural reforms whose effects could not only strengthen Europe but also be very useful for us as a central bank and could allow us to achieve better results with monetary policy”.
From the American side it turned out disappointing macro data boost today for those hoping for a more dovish Fed at next week's meeting. Producer prices rose 0,2% last month from July and 1,7% year-on-year, as expected. However, the "core" component, which excludes food, energy and commercial services prices, rose 3,3% on an annual basis, well above the 2,5% estimate. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, however. A picture that in any case leaves most bets on a mini move by Jerome Powell, with a 25 basis point cut in interest rates.
Piazza Affari, Telecom soars but the superstar is Unicredit
In Piazza Affari today Telecom shines, +6,75% benefited among other things by the confirmation of Bofa's "buy" and the increase in the target price to 0,36 from 0,24 euros.
Having paid due homage to the queen of the stock market, our gaze shifts to the banking sector, animated by Unicredi's recent movet, which lends itself to much speculation on the future with Commerzbank. Even the president of the ECB said that it will be interesting to see how the situation will evolve in the coming weeks, although she refrained from directly commenting on the fact that the bank led by Andrea Orcell has risen to 9% of the German company's capital and that the CEO does not exclude going further.
Orcel talking to Bloomberg Television said that Unicredit remains “flexible” on the next steps towards Commerzbank and a full takeover remains among the options. “Talks about an M&A or a further combination are at the forefront of discussions,” Orcel said, stressing that “since we are now an investor, we can engage constructively to understand whether we all want to create more than the value that can be generated by Commerzbank alone.”
After yesterday's doubts, the possible resumption of a banking risk, also puts the focus back on Bpm bank + 2,94% Bper + 2,18% Ps + 2,07% Popular of Sondrio + 1,8%.
In other sectors they are highlighted Leonardo + 1,83% Tenaris + 1,93, Iveco +1,62%. Luxury stocks are also rising more decisively than yesterday, such as Moncler + 2,04%.
Profit taking penalizes utilities, Hera -1,67% Getting very -1,03% Snam .
Spreads down
The secondary market closes in green, with one spread at 136 basis points between BTP and Bund, both with a 3,48-year duration. Yields have moved a bit in a swing after the announcement of the ECB's cut in the cost of money. At the close, the Italian bond is indicated at 2,12% and the German one at XNUMX%.
