The awakening of Toro is confirmed to Wall Street and on Asian markets. Europe, closer to old and new war centers, is more prudent. And so, after yesterday's roaring recovery, a cautious start is looming, conditioned by the recovery in prices of natural gas, +13%, after the attack on the gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. But in recent months the markets have learned to live with various geopolitical emergencies, even the terrible ones that emerge from the horrors committed in Israel. What matters more is the confirmation of the soft line that is being established by the Federal Reserve. Both the head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Raphael Bostic, said that no further interest rate increases are necessary and that current policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Confirmation of the soft attitude could come today with the publication of the minutes of the latest central bank meeting.
Cautious opening in Europe, yesterday Milan at the top for 5 months
• The stock exchanges of Europe they should open lower, futures of the EuroStoxx50 index -0,3%.
• Business Square +2,4% was the most brilliant market on the old continent yesterday. Our FTSEMIB (+2,3%, 28.318) achieved its best session in five months, regaining the key threshold of 28 thousand points, lost last week.
• The sector indices are all positive, with increases of over +2% for Basic Materials, Banks, Automobiles, Utilities.
IMF: economy slowing down but there will be no collapse
• The International Monetary Fund estimates that the growth of the world economy will slow down in the two-year period 2023-2024, but does not predict a collapse. This increases the probability of a scenario soft landing. Global growth will slow down to 3% in 2023 and 2,9% in 2024, compared to 3,5% in 2022. Estimates for Italy have also been revised downwards: GDP will grow by 0,7% both in 2023 and in 2024, with a cut of 0,4% and 0,2% compared to previous forecasts.
The spread sharply decreased to 194 points
• Eurozone yields falling: 2,77-year Bund to 2,90% from 4,71%, 4,90-year BTP to XNUMX% from XNUMX%. Spreads narrowing sharply a 194, after hitting a peak of 205 basis points on Monday morning.
• WTI oil moved little at 86 dollars a barrel, more or less on yesterday's levels. Brent at 87,80 still below the 89 dollars of yesterday morning.
• Sharply increasing Gas price in Europe +13,3% to 49,78 euros/MWh, at the highest levels of the last four months. The rise is linked to Finland's suspicions of a possible act of sabotage behind the leak of the Baltic Connector gas pipeline.
Pepsico +1,9% opens quarterly campaign
The Wall Street quarterly campaign opens on positive ground with Pepsico's accounts +1,9%.
Futures +0,1% signal a slight rise on Wall Street.
Yesterday, in the wake of the statements of the doves of the Federal Reserve, the main indices they closed in positive territory: Nasdaq +0,6%, S&P and Dow +0,5%. The rally faded in the final stages.
Mary Daly of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reiterated that financial conditions that have become increasingly tight due to rising market rates may have eliminated the need to raise rates further. The neutral interest rate may be higher than before the pandemic, but the cost of borrowing is not expected to remain high indefinitely. “5% will not be the new neutral rate. There is no evidence that it will be the new neutrality.”
Today the Fed minutes
The US bond market consolidated the excellent momentum from the start of the week. All eyes turned today to the minutes of the September meeting, which will be published this evening. They will be useful to better understand why Powell opted for a pause in rate increases while underlining the need for a 25 basis point adjustment by the end of the year.
Kospi +2,5%: chips better than expected
Asian stock markets rise. The most interesting data comes from Samsung's accounts +5%. The electronics giant released its second quarter data and objectives for the current quarter tonight. Operating profit is estimated at around 67.000 trillion won, down 78% year-on-year, still better than expectations. Tokyo Nikkei +0,7%. The Japanese currency weakens slightly, the dollar-yen exchange rate reaches 149.
New stimuli arriving for China
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is up by 1,4%, the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists is up by 0,4%. Yesterday morning Bloomberg reported that Chinese authorities are working on a new plan to stimulate the economy. Yesterday morning, rumors circulated that Beijing was considering the possibility of increasing its deficit target for 2023, launching a new round of stimulus to help the economy hit the annual growth target set by the government. The figures at stake would be around 137 billion dollars of increased debt. More than a thousand pesos for a dollar. With 12 days to go until Argentina's elections, the local currency has plummeted to record levels.
Luxury is losing ground. Lvmh -6%
It lost 6% in early trading LVMH after announcing that it had achieved sales of 19,96 billion euros in the third quarter, an increase of only 1% year-on-year after several months of double-digit growth.
Diasorin. Morgan Stanley cuts the target price to from 86 to 85 euros.
Enel is working on a reorganization of the electric mobility business, especially in North America, rebalancing its weight with respect to profitable businesses.
Tim. The relaunch plans must safeguard all the shareholders of the former telephone monopolist, including the main investor Vivendi. The Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti said this.
Mediobanca. A turnout of around 70% is expected at the meeting on 28 October called, among other things, to renew the Board of Directors.
Moncler Goldman Sachs raises the target price from 71,1 to 74.50 euros.
Stellantis in Mirafiori it will produce the new Maserati, heir to the four-door, and the fully electric Cinquecento. This is what a note from Uilm underlines after the meeting held in Turin between the company and the unions.
