2026 begins just as 2025 ended: with a new European defense stocks boom, this time pushed upwards by the US raid in Venezuela, which led to the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, and the possible geopolitical consequences of what happened.
Leonardo flies to Milan, Rheinmetall sprints to Frankfurt
Faced with this scenario, the Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defense is advancing by 1,46% today, bringing the weekly increase to +7,8%. In Milan it is flying Leonardo, which after a record 2025 (+89,6%), gained 6,13% in the second session of the year to 54,36 euros per share. It follows closely behind Fincantieri after the +141% achieved last year: the stock in fact rose by 3,68% to 18,31 euros.
It's even better in Frankfurt Rheinmetall, which rose 7,2% to 1.710 euros, also benefiting from a multi-million dollar order from the German army. In Paris Thales e Airbus they advance by 4% and 1,45% respectively, while in London BAE Systems achieved the best performance of the FTSE 100, rising by 4,6%.
Venezuela reignites international tensions, with China and Taiwan all eyes on the matter.
The war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and now Venezuela. Three geopolitical fronts are worrying the market, with investors wondering what the fate of the South American country will be after Maduro's capture, while interim leader Delcy Rodriguez, until a few days ago vice president, is calling for "balanced and respectful relations" with the US. Doubts are also being cast on Trump's move, with several analysts viewing the US raid as a "dangerous precedent" internationally.
Meanwhile, according to several operators, European countries will continue to increase military spending "in response to the tycoon's propensity to resort to military force as part of his broader political agenda." Furthermore, the operation, strongly supported by Donald Trump, raises "disturbing questions" about China's possible future moves towards Taiwan, a territory long claimed by Beijing, as well as "the possibility that Washington may push more aggressively for regime change in Iran."
The experts at Saxo sum up the picture most effectively when they state that “US action in Venezuela is a geopolitical bomb”.
Cuba, Colombia, Greenland: Trump's next targets?
In the meantime, at least in words, Donald Trump he doesn't seem to have any intention of stopping and after the one on Venezuela, it seemsintending to carry out further "raid raids" of dubious legality. Speaking to journalists on board Air Force One, the White House tenant threatened a possible "similar US mission" on Colombia Gustavo Petro, "a sick man," according to Trump. Also in the tycoon's sights isMexico by Claudia Sheinbaum, while Cuba she would be ready to “fall by herself”.
The question of the Greenland, coveted by the American president for its significant mineral resources and strategic location. The tycoon reiterated his intention to secure the territory soon.We need Greenland from a national security perspective, and Denmark will not be able to deal with it,” he said, rekindling fears of an intervention similar to the one in Venezuela.
