The year to come What new developments will it bring to the economy? At the periodic end of the twelve-month countdown, a flurry of news scenarios and forecasts on what will happen, or could happen, in the next twelve, and the economic hands cannot exempt themselves from the ritual. Naturally, there are as many angles from which to look at the near future as there are various dimensions of the economic systems, each broken down by geographical area.
Starting from the monetary ones, one wonders: why rates in the long run tend to rise? Perhaps they sense a change of direction in the central bank policies, or at least the imminent end of the phase of cuts in the cost of money they have been managing? Or are there other reasons? And how will exchange rates react, given that current and prospective conditions are different among the countries whose currencies are their calling cards? Naturally, the Stock markets follow with trepidation The words and deeds of central bankers are oscillating without apparent direction near the highs: will their next move be one of easing or of tightening? Ultimately, the basis of everything is the performance of real economies, which influences the movements of interest rates, stocks and, ultimately, exchange rates: the US will slow down and the timid pace of Eurozone recovery?
These and other questions prompted the editorial team of the December 2025 Economic Outlook, the last of this year, which has been full of twists and turns.
The Hands are a monthly column of economic analysis, with great attention to structural dynamics; they are written by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi for well over a third of a century now. They only come out on FIRSTonline and from tomorrow the December 2025 edition will be on the website. To all readers best wishes for the upcoming holidays and for a 2026 perhaps with more peace and less turbulence.
