In third quarter of this year Poland's GDP increased by 3,7% year-on-year (from 3,3% previously), outpacing other countries in the region (Czech Republic 2,7%, Hungary 0,6%) and the EU as a whole (1,5%).
I personal data The data published so far indicate an improvement in industry compared to the second quarter, the same for retail trade accompanied by a recession in construction. On the spending side, GDP is driven by buoyant household consumption, which grew at a similar annual rate to the previous three months. At the same time, the recovery in investment activity was delayed by the slow implementation of projects financed by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and the necessary revisions.
Inflation slows and there is room for further rate cuts.
At the same time, the stime The data reported by ING Economics confirm a moderate slowdown in consumer price inflation (2,8%) in October. On an annual basis, goods prices increased by 1,7%, while services rose by 5,6%. The stability of food and beverage prices (0,0%) was facilitated by the decline in meat (-0,3%) and fruit prices (-1,5%). The increase in household energy bills (+0,6%) was due to higher costs from providers (+2,5%).
Analysts estimate that core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, fell to 2,9% year-on-year from 3,2% year-on-year in the previous two months. Given the previous increase in services prices, some suppliers may be forced to lower prices in response to demand. Furthermore, low-cost imports from Asia, following the increase in American duties on China, are putting downward pressure on the prices of basic goods.
It should also be noted that a slowdown in wage growth This should gradually translate into a slowdown in services inflation. This means the Central Bank could continue to ease monetary policy, and a further 25 basis point rate cut cannot be ruled out in December.
Outlook for 2026: Strong consumption, still weak investments
This year analysts expect a GDP growth of 3,5%Data published so far exclude a significant performance in fixed investment, which would, however, be offset by solid private consumption. The timing of the RFF implementation offers a cautious outlook for 2026.
La Poland's growth remains solidThe current account deficit is around 1% of GDP, while CPI inflation is close to the Central Bank's target of 2,5%. The only significant imbalance is between the public sector (high deficit) and the domestic private sector (low investment, high savings).
