La Italian growth Slows and debt does not decrease. These are the economic forecasts of European Commission published today, Wednesday 15 November, according to which the GDP Italian taste it will grow by only 0,7% this year, 0,2% less than the summer economic forecasts, to rise to 0,9% in 2024 (in the previous forecasts it was 0,8%). Things are not better for the eurozone: Brussels has revised aI lowered the estimates di growth of the economy of the 27 compared to summer forecasts. “The European economy has lost momentum this year in the face of a high cost of living, weak external demand and monetary tightening,” the EU executive explained in a statement. Even if Brussels estimates that inflation, which fell to a two-year low in the Eurozone in October, will continue to decline, uncertainty remains linked to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
“Ahead of 2024, we expect a modest recovery in growth thanks to a further reduction in inflation and the stability of the labor market – explains the Vice President of the European Commission in a statement Valdis Dombrovskis –. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has so far had limited economic impact outside the region, but heightened geopolitical tensions have further increased uncertainty and risks clouding the economic outlook.”
Forecasts for the EU and euro area
Looking at the numbers, the autumn forecast forecast GDP growth in 2023 of 0,6% both inUe that ineuro area, -0,2 percentage points less than the Commission's summer forecasts. In 2024, EU GDP growth is revised downwards, to 1,3% (-0,1 percentage points compared to the summer). Even in the euro area, GDP growth is expected to decline, to 1,2%. In 2025, as inflation and monetary tightening ease, growth is expected to strengthen to 1,7% for the EU and 1,6% for the euro area. On the front ofinflation, Brussels expects consumer prices to increase on an annual average by 5,6% in 2023, 3,2% in 2024 and 2,2% in 2025.
Together with Germany (-0,3% in 2023, +0,8% in 2024) Italy is the country that risks growing in 2023 and above all in 2024. The most dynamic economies are instead those of Malta and Ireland (+4 % and +3% in 2024), followed by France which would grow by 1,2%. In 2025, Germany's growth is estimated at 1,2%, and that of France at 1,4%.
Forecasts for Italy: little growth and the deficit slows down the decline in debt
For Italy, the GDP in 2023 will be 0,7%, rising to 0,9% in 2024, and 1,2% in 2025 thanks to investments financed by PNRR. Inflation in our country is expected to fall to 6,1% in 2023, 2,7% in 2024 and 2,3% in 2025. The deficit still high also determines the increase in the public debt/GDP ratio in 2024-25. Brussels expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to decline slightly to 139,8% in 2023, but to increase again in 2025 to 140,9%.
As regards the deficit, the Commission expects it to fall from 8% in 2023 to 5,3% this year. In 2024, the deficit is expected to fall to 4,4% of GDP due to the phasing out of energy-related measures and the zero impact of tax credits for housing. In 2025 it is expected to reduce marginally to 4,3% of GDP.
