La The race for copper heats upThe raw material that symbolizes the energy transition is attracting global appetites and triggering a chess game between the giants of the sector. The weekend was supposed to be a counteroffensive, but for BHP has instead come to a new haltThe Anglo-Australian giant, the world's leading mining company in terms of value and global presence, has announced that it has withdrawn for the second time its attempt to take over Anglo AmericanAn operation conceived as a lightning move to derail the now imminent wedding between Anglo and Canada's Teck Resources, which however dissolved within a few hours.
BHP confirmed it has stopped any evaluation of a possible combination, after preliminary discussions with the Anglo board. The group reiterated that a merger "would have a strong strategic rationale and create significant value for all stakeholders," while declaring itself "confident in the highly competitive potential of its organic growth strategy."
BHP's bid falls through: what really happened?
BHP's second proposal came just before a crucial date: the assemblies of December 9th, when the shareholders of Anglo American and Teck Resources to vote on $53 billion deal (around 60 billion, according to initial estimates) which should create a global copper giant.
BHP's counter-offer included a mixed component of shares and cash, an alternative to the Teck deal, and it came at a particularly hot moment. Anglo American is currently worth over $41 billion, while BHP has a market capitalization of around $130 billion. These numbers would, on paper, have created a new global super-player.
But, just like a year ago, the approach ran into a wall at Anglo's boardroom, convinced that the company's scope and the value of its activities, especially in copper, were not adequately recognized.
The previous one skipped
BHP had already attempted a coup in 2024, proposing a $49 billion offer, but one structured in an extremely complex way. The plan included a preliminary dismemberment of Anglo American and the sale of stakes in two South African companies. The board deemed the puzzle "too complex and unattractive," and rejected it out of hand.
From that moment Anglo started a deep restructuring plan by exiting South African platinum, maintaining its coal and diamond assets, and strengthening its copper strategy. A choice that has proven successful today.
Anglo runs, BHP struggles
La distance between the two companies it is not just a matter of negotiations, but also on the marketOver the past year, Anglo American shares have gained 11% in London, while BHP, which is listed in Australia, has lost about 10%. This divergence complicates any agreement on the price and makes it more difficult to justify a significant premium. Meanwhile, however, Anglo prepares zero-premium merger with Teck Resources, a 19 billion dollar operation that aims to merge two large copper mines in Chile, creating one of the most strategic hubs for the energy transition.
Copper, the new gold rush
Il Copper is today the key raw material for electrification: electric vehicles, networks, solar, digital infrastructure. This is why Anglo American, with its huge reserves, has become a highly sought-after target in the mining sector, which has been undergoing a period of consolidation for years. It's therefore not surprising that BHP has tried again. But with the new no, the Australian company will now be blocked by the rules of the British City Code according to which it will not be able to launch a further offer for at least six months, unless there are material changes in market conditions or an explicit reopening by the Anglo board.
Game over? That's not necessarily true.
The game is not over yet. Anglo-Teck merger still faces regulatory scrutiny in the US, Canada and ChinaThis isn't a foregone conclusion. But BHP's withdrawal removes the only major immediate industrial obstacle from the table. According to some analysts, the deal could usher in a new era of aggressive M&A in the mining sector. Others, such as XTB, believe Anglo's move also aims to protect itself from future unwanted takeovers.
The certainty, for now, is that BHP has withdrawn and Anglo is going straight towards Teck. And the copper rush, a major center of gravity of the energy transition, continues to rewrite the global balance of the sector.
