ASIA POSITIVE FOR THE FIFTH ROW DAY
BUT THE RACE OF THE YEN DOESN'T STOP
Fifth consecutive upward closure for Asian stocks, driven by the positive closure of Wall Street. The MSCI Asia Pacific index recorded a rise of 0,9%. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index recorded a rise of 0,21%; the shares of some exporters such as Honda shine +1,7% in the hope of interventions by the new government to curb the currency race. But the most important datum of the day, on the contrary, concerns the umpteenth rise of the yen against the dollar, which reached 76.60. In Hong Kong, the index marks a growth of 0,48%. Lastly, the lower demand from the USA and the European Union had an impact on the growth of the GDP of the Philippines: only +3,4% in the second quarter.
WALL STREET BETS ON STIMULUS
AFTER READING THE MINUTES OF THE FED
The prospect of a new stimulus package for the economy is not an illusion, but a prediction based on solid foundations. This is the interpretation that Wall Street has given to the minutes of the Fed, ie the report of the meeting of the FOMC last August 8th. This conviction reversed the mood of the US markets: after a difficult start, conditioned by the drop in investor confidence, which had brought the Dow Jones Industrials down by 110 points, the Stock Exchange took the upward path, reaching a maximum of 91 points up to then close at +0,2% at 11,559, 20 points above the day before. Same rise for the Standard & Poor's 500 which closed at 1212 points while the Nasdaq recorded an increase of 0,55%. Minor changes that have an explanation: the market is hesitant to take too clear-cut positions three days after the unemployment statistics that will be released next Friday.
Such enthusiasm can be explained by the fact that more than one of the FOMC members during the August 9 meeting spoke concretely of the possibility of a third round of purchases to stimulate the economy. The minutes also mention the hypothesis of intervening on the long end of the curve with the purchase of securities with a maturity of 15 years or more against the sale of bonds with shorter maturities, or rather a maneuver intended in any case to lower rates. Beyond the technical solutions, one fact remains: until now the hostility of the hawks was known, three out of ten, who have opposed the Bernanke line by raising the specter of inflation. On the contrary, yesterday it emerged that behind the chairman of the Fed there is a majority of "doves" willing to use all the anti-deflation weapons at their disposal.
Among these is the president of the Chicago Fed, Charles Evans who said yesterday that "the Fed must do more to help the economy." Meanwhile, timid signs of recovery emerge from the Case.Shiller index on house prices: in 19 of the 20 major American cities, prices rose last month, a phenomenon that has been happening for three months. But prices are still lower than a year ago.
THANKS TO USA PLAZA BARGAIN LIMITS DAMAGES
BUT THE BTP/BUND SPREAD IS BACK TO SCARY
Contrasted closure for the European stock exchanges which, after an upward start, gradually reduced their gains and then accelerated downwards in conjunction with the US macro data.
Only a recovery at the end of the session thanks to Wall Street's turnaround allowed the European markets to contain the declines and close mixed.
The Milan Stock Exchange closed the session moderately lower in the aftermath of the Arcore summit which changed the face of the 45,5 billion euro maneuver. Piazza Affari lost momentum in the middle of the day penalized above all by the banking sector, which was affected by the rise in the Btp-Bund spread in the 300 basis point area. A new wave of sales came after the data on US consumer confidence for the month of August, which fell to 44,5 points or the lowest level since April 2009. In the last hour of trading, however, the price list reduced again losses and so in Piazza Affari the Ftse Mib index dropped 0,23% to 15.106 points, while the Ftse All Share fell back by 0,10% to 15.990.
THE ROBIN TAX SAVES ATLANTIA
HEAVY HAND WITH SNAM AND TERNA
The Government did not present any amendments to the "Robin Hood Tax" yesterday. “The impact on the motorway and telecommunications sectors is therefore averted (good news for Atlantia, Sias and Telecom Italia) but the impact on the entire energy chain (including renewables) is confirmed, with a particularly strong impact when fully operational for Terna and Snam Rete Gas (8-9% of fully operational EPS) but also Enel Green Power (about 5%)”, wrote Intermonte in today's note. And so Atlantia gained 1,59% to 10,89 euros, while sales hit both Terna (-2,44% to 2,474 euros) and Snam Rete Gas (-2,08% to 3,30 euros) . Enel was also in the red, leaving 1,72% at 3,308 euros on the parterre.
BANKS UNDER FIRE, MATTEO ARPE COURSE ON BPM
FONSAI SUPERSTAR, MEDIASET RELEASES THE ENDEMOL KNOT
The new tensions on BTPs had an immediate impact on bank shares: Monte dei Paschi lost 2,61% to 0,421 euro, Intesa SanPaolo 1,99% to 1,134 euro, Ubi Banca 2,57% to 2,50. 9,6 euros (the bank, according to the interim report, reduced its investments in Italian government bonds from 8,1 to 1,24 billion) Unicredit 0,917% to 0,74 euros, Popolare di Milano 1,479% to 0,09 euros, Banco Popolare 1,148% at 50 euros. As far as Bpm is concerned, it is increasingly probable that the future of the institution after the capital increase will be in the hands of the guarantee consortium led by Mediobanca (the only Italian institution together with a pool of international banks) which should, according to forecasts, take on just under XNUMX per cent of the new shares. Hence the rumors about a possible intervention by Banca Profilo headed by Matteo Arpe which could acquire a role of leader, apparently with the approval of the Bank of Italy.
Fondiaria-Sai, at the center of the attention of the activist fund Amber (third shareholder of the company), towered over the main basket with a leap of 4,31% to 1,477 euros the day after the publication of the half-yearly accounts. The insurance company closed the first half with a loss of 61,9 million euros, a decisive improvement compared to the loss of 144,8 million in the same period last year. Brilliant performance also for Buzzi Unicem (+2,96% to 6,78 euro) which took advantage of the Jefferies upgrade. The broker has in fact raised the recommendation on the cement group to buy from the previous hold.
Mediaset performed well (+1,86% to 2,628 euros) in the wake of the Financial Times article dedicated to an upcoming reorganization underway of Endemol, burdened by a debt of 2 billion euros: the restructuring will take place through a debt/equity swap which will dilute the stake of the three current shareholders below 50% (Mediaset, Goldman Sachs and Cyrte). According to other rumors, a joint venture between the English company ITV and the Alfa Romeo group is also being studied for the purpose of taking over Endemol.
Fiat (-1,80% to 4,15 euros) in the spotlight. After yesterday's meeting between Sergio Marchionne and the president of the Piedmont region, Roberto Cota, uncertainty about Mirafiori continues. In fact, Lingotto has not yet decided which models to produce in the Turin factory.
EDISON ON THE ROMANI-EDF TABLE
PIERREL, PILL AGAINST THE BEAR
In the rest of the list, weak Edison (-0,41%) and A2A (-0,32%). The Rome meeting between the representatives of the ministry and the number one of the French group on the dossier has been postponed to next Monday, while the hypothesis of a one-month postponement of the deadline for the agreement, already set for next September 15, is looming. The government, said the minister, intends to do everything possible to prevent Edipower from being dismembered but, on the contrary, remaining in the hands of the Italians without leaving room for hypothetical stews. Meanwhile, doubts are growing about the current governance by the municipality of Milan, a shareholder of A2a, while Iren, a shareholder in Delmi, is already on a war footing in the face of the prospect of an agreement between A2a and EDF that is "detrimental to its interests".
Among the well-established "small caps" Pierrel (+4,3%) thanks to data which showed a decidedly improving net loss, Kinexia (+11,28%) which in the first six months of the year almost quadrupled its net result and Mondo TV (+6,75%) returned to profit in the six months. Male Cogeme Set (-9,31%) worst stock in all of Piazza Affari, after the decision of the Board of Directors to postpone the approval of the half-yearly report. In fact, the board "encountered various accounting/management problems which effectively made it impossible to prepare and verify the half-yearly accounting data within the terms of the law, also noting difficulties in the evaluation of some accounting items".
TODAY'S AUCTION FOR FREQUENCIES FOR MOBILE TV
OFFERS FOR 2,3 BILLION FROM TI, VODAGONE, WIND AND H3G
The offers presented yesterday by the four telephone operators (Telecom Italia, Vodafone, Wind and H2,3g) for 100G frequencies, the fourth generation of wireless telecommunications systems, amount to 3 billion (4 million below the minimum threshold established by the stability law) put up for sale by the state. Today the auction will start which provides for raises of 3%. Most of the requests concern the 800 Mhz, the frequency capable of providing the greatest coverage.
EXXON SIGNS DEAL OF THE CENTURY WITH ROSNEFT
PUTIN CLOSES PROHIBITED DEAL IN KHODORKOVSKY
Exxon Mobil and OAO Rosneft have signed an agreement which will allow the US giant to have access to the exploration of Arctic deposits and the Russian company to participate in Exxon's American projects. The agreement follows the breaking of the agreements between Rosneft and BP by a few months. The deal was signed at Vladimir Putin's dacha on the Black Sea. "Exxon's offer - commented Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, Putin's right-hand man for oil policy - is far better not only than that of BP, but also of all the other companies that have contacted us. The financial borders of the agreement are, for now, difficult to evaluate. "We can say - commented Rostnef spokesman Rudim Kazharov - that we are in the order of tens of billions of dollars". In 2003 Exxon negotiated an all-out alliance with Mikhail Khodorkovsky's Ykos then imprisoned by Putin amid Western protests. But, in the end, Putin won: his opponent remains in prison, on the basis of dubious charges of tax evasion. Rostneft, born out of Yukos stew, can finally tap into American technology.
