Finally, we vote. But it is impossible that tonight, with the polls open, the name of the new president of the United States will emerge, because almost one hundred million Americans have delivered their ballot papers to the post office. Perhaps the verdict will come only at the weekend. Meanwhile, the cities lock themselves down to avoid violence and looting. Already closed Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles, medieval fences protect the windows of Fifth Avenue.
The financial markets, overwhelmed by derivatives issued to defend against volatility (or exploit it to their advantage), are not betraying tensions for now: Dow Jones +1,6%, S&P +1,23%, Nasdaq +0,42%. Wall Street's S&P500 index future is up 0,5% this morning.
The pro-Trump package, according to JPMorgan, is made up of the securities of the big banks: the sector index rose by 2,3% yesterday.
But the attention of the markets, for now, remains focused on the southern hemisphere. Australia has cut the discount rate to 0,1%, but the composition of the new government of New Zealand, promoted by the very popular Jacinda Ardern. The different souls of the kiwi country have been included, pro rata: 5 out of 20 ministers are Maori, eight are women, not missing a gay.
In the meantime, the Bull season continues in Asia. Tokyo's Nikkei gains 1,5%. Kospi of Seoul +1,5%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai +1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 1,9% this morning, Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 +0,9%.
The time is approaching for the listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong of Ant Group, the digital payments company which is expected to debut with a capitalization of 316 billion dollars after being placed with a public of 40 billion. A triumphal march that frightens the authorities, who yesterday summoned the president and first partner, Jack Ma, for an "interview". The tycoon threatens to upset the credit market. It is no coincidence that the Chinese central bank has just released a proposal for a new regulation of microcredit provided directly to consumers.
Brent oil flat at 39 dollars a barrel, from +4% yesterday. Yesterday, Russia's energy minister met with representatives of the country's major oil companies to discuss the possibility of postponing planned production increases to early 2021.
Italy, indeed Europe, is now grappling with "this dramatic moment", as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte defined it when announcing the new measures to try to stem the Covid 19. The situation remains difficult across Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel said that for Germany "the light at the end of the tunnel is still far away".
EUROPE REBOUNCES. EURO/DOLLAR AT A MINIMUM OF 5 WEEKS
Yet even in Europe November opened in the sign of Taurus. Supporting the rally were macro data which surprised on the upside. Starting from Italy. The PMI manufacturing index, which records the confidence of business purchasing managers in Italy, rose to 53,8 points in October from 53,2 points in September, the highest level since March 2018. The contribution of exports was very strong , which posted the fastest growth rate in three years. No less brilliant was the German index, which settled at 58,2 points, above estimates, while for the Eurozone the figure rose to 54,8 points. the highest since July 2018. The data is in line with the exploits of China, driven by domestic demand at the levels of ten years ago. Thus, at least for a day, both the problems of the pandemic and the anxiety about the US vote fade into the background thanks also to the rebound in oil. But today EU finance ministers will discuss how to respond to the slowdown in economic prospects. Meanwhile, the euro-dollar cross fell for the sixth consecutive day to 1,164, on the lows of the last five weeks.
MILAN AT THE TOP, RECORD RISE FOR BIOTECH KIADIS (+245%)
Piazza Affari was the best stock exchange: +2,55% to 18.400 basis points. The others are also galloping: Frankfurt +2%; Paris +2,11%; Madrid +2,06%; London +1,46%.
From the Guinness Book of Records the leap of the Dutch biotech Kiadis, +245% after Sanofi (+2,6%) offered to buy the company for 308 million euros to increase its range of immunotherapy products.
BTP UNDER PRESSURE: SPREAD TO 136
The uncertainty was reflected in the yields of the peripherals, which rose slightly.
In closing, the spread on the Bund on the ten-year stretch was 136 basis points from 137 at the start and from 134 on Friday. The 0,72-year rate stands at 0,74%, compared to 0,71% at the start and against XNUMX% on Friday.
EURO ZONE: 73,5% OF GOVERNMENT BONDS TRADE BELOW ZERO
Three-quarters of the €8.900 trillion worth of eurozone government bonds traded on Tradeweb had negative yields at the end of October, posting a record high.
The market value of eurozone sovereign bonds with yields below 0% rose to around €6.530 trillion, or 73,25% of the total market.
This is an increase compared to just over 6.000 billion euros at the end of September, hitting a record in data that dates back to 2016.
DAGOSPIA: THE EU COULD CANCEL THE DEBTS OF THE PANDEMIC
Cancel debts incurred during the Covid pandemic. The rumors circulated insistently and at 20:43 yesterday Dagospia relaunched them. It seems that a discussion is underway among the Brussels commissioners to ensure that the European Union survives. The countries most in crisis, Italy, Spain, Greece, but also France would ask the ECB to forgive their debt.
POSSIBLE ADVANCE FOR ITALY OF THE RECOVERY FUND
The European Parliament's proposal to increase the pre-financing quota of the Recovery Fund from 10 to 20% is more feasible. Italy could receive 40 billion euros in advance. "We propose to extend the program from 3 to 4 years" and "to increase the pre-financing from 10 to 20% to help more and more quickly," said Siegfried Muresan of the EPP, who is one of the three rapporteurs for the provision in Parliament European.
OIL LEADS THE RALLY. CAR SALES, SALT ONLY FCA
Start of the week with a sharp rise for the oil and oil service sector, with oil prices remaining volatile: Saipem +7,63%, Tenaris +5,23%, Eni rebounds by 5,84%.
The automotive sector also shines: Fca and Ferrari +2,64%, Cnh Industrial +3,6%, Pirelli +1,96%. Exor also advances: +5,65%.
The car market in October marked time (156.978 units, in line with the 157.262 of the same period last year, -0,2%) after the failure to confirm the incentives that were immediately exhausted as regards the most important part of the market . Good news comes from the FCA group, which goes against the trend: compared to the market and closes October with 37.936 registrations, up 12,57% compared to the same month in 2019. The share therefore rises from 21,43 to 24,17% ( +2,74%).
Leonardo (+3,77%), Prysmian (+3,04%) and Stm (+1,95%) were also highlighted.
MPS, TWO BILLION NEEDED. THE MEF: UNICREDIT HAS NOT TO DO WITH IT
Strong gains also for the banking sector: the M&A front remains hot. Note Unicredit (+3,2%) and Banca Monte Paschi (+8,32%), in the wake of rumors of an acceleration, later denied by MEF sources, on a possible merger. In reality, what is concrete is only the search for new funds. Monte dei Paschi needs at least two billion euros to prevent incoming losses from bringing assets below the minimum established by ECB supervision. And continue - but only from next spring - the search for a buyer that the Treasury is committed to finding by Europe by April 2022. In July 2017, via XX Settembre paid 5,4 billion to become a shareholder at 68,5 % and two years earlier he had received another 243 million in interest on a bond in MPS shares.
INTESA-FCA, AGREEMENT ON HEALTHCARE
The other banks are also running, in the wake of Intesa Sanpaolo (+4,42%). The bank's insurance division was awarded the management of the contractual supplementary health funds of the Fiat Chrysler and CNH Industrial groups.
Mediobanca (+3,48%), Banco Bpm (+3,93%) and Bper (+3,74%) also shine.
NEXI-NETS, TOWARDS A EUROPEAN CHAMPION LED BY CDP
Focus also on Nexi (-3%) the stock was suspended due to excessive downtrend. The electronic payment company announced this morning that it had started exclusive negotiations in view of the merger with the Danish Nets: the operation, all on paper, received the go-ahead from Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, the future first shareholder of the Nexi aggregate -Is. Nets would be valued at around $10 billion, according to Reuters. Nexi has until November 11 to close the acquisition of the leading payments company in northern Europe valued at 7,2 billion euros (including 1,8 billion in debt). At the end of the operation, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti will be the main shareholder of a group of European scope, capable of keeping up with the French leader Worldline, which has just tied the knot with Ingenico.
MEDIOBANCA PROMOTES MEDIOLANUM
In assets under management, Banca Mediolanum stands out (+5%). Mediobanca promoted the stock to Outperform, with a target price of 7,1 euro.
Generali (+2,7%) is considering rising from the current 24,5% to 30% of Cattolica, in the light of the large number of shareholders who have opted for withdrawal rather than approving the transformation of the insurance company into a joint stock company.
In the rest of the price list, Diasorin -1,3%. The company is working on a rapid test to evaluate the immune response of the anti-Covid vaccine. The CEO Carlo Rosa does not give any indications on the business in the fourth quarter, "because we still cannot imagine the effects of new lockdowns".
AIM: ENERTRONICA +22,67% SELLS PHOTOVOLTAIC IN COLOMBIA
ùNell'Aim, in rally Enertronica (+22,67%): the company has signed a definitive agreement for the supply of 190 MW of photovoltaic inverters which will be used for the construction of the largest photovoltaic plant in Colombia.
