The American stock markets continue to break records driven by quarterly results, the best in the last three years (+8,2% profits). But the effects of Wall Street's performances, unlike what happened after the election of Donald Trump, are no longer transmitted to the rest of the global economy.
Asia awaits the outcome of Shinzo Abe's forthcoming visit to Washington, the opportunity to review the trade agreements between Tokyo and the USA and, above all, to promise investments by Japanese multinationals in the USA. Beijing is preparing to face the pressure of the two rivals but the drop in foreign exchange reserves below 3 trillion dollars (a 6-year low) is an eloquent indication of the difficulties of the Dragon economy.
But at the center of concerns remains Europe, over which, despite yesterday's apparent calm, uncertainty over France's political future, shaken by protests in the banlieues, and Italy's financial difficulties. Thus the dollar strengthens against the single currency, hit by the threat of a disintegration of the European Union. The euro-dollar cross fell 0,7% to 1,068. Trump's pressure on Brussels for now has produced a result opposite to the US president's goal.
NASDAQ AND DOW JONES HIGHEST THANKS TO THE QUARTERLY
The Asian price lists were little moved this morning. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is starting to close slightly higher: Nikkei index +0,2%. Hong Kong gains 0,3% and Shanghai loses 0,1%. Seoul is down 0,4%. The Indian Stock Exchange remained unchanged, awaiting the decision of the Central Bank. The yuan slows down (6,847 against the dollar) after the decline in Chinese foreign exchange reserves.
Wall Street trots on, but the cautious pace is enough to signal two new absolute records: the Dow Jones (+0,19%) closes at 20.090,29 points after reaching 20.155. The Nasdaq (+0,19%) reaches the top of 5,674,22 points. The S&P index is stable (+0,02%).
The race of the tech sector, led by Alphabet (+0,9%), at the head of the protests against Trump's anti-immigration measures supported the markets. The San Francisco Court of Appeals said it was "skeptical" of the arguments presented by the White House to justify the blockade. Leading the rise are also Boeing (+1,5%), IBM (+1,5%) and Apple (+0,9%).
GM BRAKES, WEAK WALT DISNEY. OIL DOWN
Sudden slowdown by General Motors (-4,7%). The accounts for the fourth quarter, explains the company, were held back by the weakness of the pound which hit the British subsidiary. Even 2017 looks difficult. Walt Disney also disappoints (-0,56%) after the accounts announced with the stock market closed. Also noteworthy is the thud of Michael Kors (-10,8%): year-end sales disappoint.
The decline in the energy sector (-1,4%) weighed on the price lists. Despite OPEC cuts, US gasoline reserves are growing under the pressure of shale oil production. Among the falling stocks, Chevron stands out (-1,4%). In Piazza Affari little move Eni (-0,2%).
MILAN FAILS TO REBOUND, TODAY LONDON VOTES ON BREXIT
Not just spreads. Today the political menu of the Old Continent foresees the vote of the English Parliament on the modalities of the denunciation of the article 50, that is the modalities of the exit from the EU according to what London requests. Meanwhile, pending negotiations with the Monetary Fund and the EU, Greece's 6-year yield is once again soaring, jumping from 10 to XNUMX% in just three days.
It was supposed to be the day of the rebound for the Italian stock market, after the massive losses on the eve. But Piazza Affari failed in its mission in the final stages. At the end of the session, in fact, the Ftse Mib canceled the increases, closing at 18.663 points, down by 0,17%. Paris (-0,51%) and Madrid (-0,29%) were also weak, while Frankfurt (+0,4%) and London (+0,2%) remained solid. The banking-insurance sector slowed down Paris' performance: Bnp Paribas -4,6%, Société Générale -2,8%, Axa -1,6%.
The weak performance of the manufacturing and construction sectors led the overall German industrial production figure for December to record the largest monthly decline in the last eight years. Industrial production fell 3% month on month in December.
As for Italy, the monthly note from Istat notes that "the recovery of the manufacturing sector is strengthening, which is associated with the improvement in the purchasing power of families and the increase in investments".
MOODY'S VERDICT AND THE BOT AUCTION FRIDAY
"The events of these days and hours rudely remind us that a country with a high debt cannot afford not to continue to work towards its descent", said Minister Pier Carlo Padoan talking about the increase in the spread.
Debt markets took a breather after Black Monday. The yield differential between the BTP and the Bund on the 10-year segment stood at 198 basis points from 202 at the end of yesterday's session (the highest since October 2014) and, in parallel, the 2,33-year rate fell to 2,38% from 75% of the last closure. The spread between Germany and France closed the session at 77 basis points, compared to XNUMX basis points on Monday.
High voltage Friday for Italy and France. Moody' will update the ratings of the two countries. Paris (today Aa2 with negative outlook) risks losing an A. For the Bel Paese (Baa2) the stakes are higher: a new downgrade, after the one decreed by the Canadian agency Dbrs, could, according to operators, raise the spread in area 250 points. An increasingly rude call to move on the public finance front.
Also on Friday 10 February, the Ministry of the Economy will make 6,5 billion euros of 12-month BOTs available to investors against an identical amount maturing.
FCA WITHDRAWS, DOUBTS ABOUT THE ITALIAN EMISSIONS TEST
Target practice on Fiat Chrysler has resumed (-2,9%). The company, targeted by the French judiciary for alleged manipulation of the emissions of some diesel engines, reiterated that its vehicles are "fully compliant with emissions standards". But some models were allegedly allowed to avoid some key diesel emissions tests as part of investigations carried out by Italy's Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport following the Volkswagen scandal. This is what emerges, according to Reuters, from a ministry report presented to the European Parliament's commission of inquiry into the Dieselgate scandal last October but never officially published.
The automotive group announced today to the unions that the bonus for employees, in relation to the production efficiency objectives set out in the contract, will average around 1.320 euros. Instead, Cnh Industrial performed well (+1,5%).
FLY STM, UNICREDIT RAISES ITS HEAD
Another brilliant performance by Stmicroelectronics (+1,6%), on the new highs since 2007, at 13,43 euros. From the beginning of 2017 the performance is +22%. The driving effect comes from overseas, where the Sox index which groups together the giants of the semiconductor sector reaches its highest level in the last 16 years.
After the negative start (-6,8% at the debut on Monday) Unicredit resumed oxygen, which rose by 0,49% on the second day of the capital increase. The rest of the banking sector was negative (-1,2% on average): Banco Bpm -5,9%, Pop. Emilia -3,4%, Entente -1,9%. Generali fell by 0,5%. Telecom Italy -2,4%. In the luxury sector, Luxottica (+1,2%), Moncler (+1,9%) and Yoox (+1,4%) rose.
