China on Saturday cut the cost of borrowing for the second time in three months. The decision to cut rates by a quarter of a point to 5,35% which falls a few days before the next annual Party Congress is Beijing's response to the slowdown in the manufacturing sector, signaled by the PMI index. The move allowed the Asian stock exchanges to open the week on the upside pending the key appointments of the week: the US employment data on Friday and, above all, the launch of the European Qe. Tokyo +0,3% retouches the record of the last 15 years. Hong Kong and Shanghai rose by 0,6%. Sydney scores +0,8%.
The dollar opens higher against the euro, which fell below the 1,12 barrier. Among today's market movers are the PMI data for the eurozone, including Italy. The final data of the Italian GDP for 2014 will also be communicated during the day.
40 BILLION WEDDING FOR CHIPS
Big hit over the weekend in the semiconductor industry. Freescale and Nxp have announced their willingness to precede the merger of assets: a 40 billion dollar group is born.
SPREAD BELOW 100, BUND TOWARDS ZERO
The wait is over. Eurozone central banks meeting in Cyprus on Thursday 5 March will approve the legal documentation needed to start the large-scale purchase of eurozone government bonds. At the end of the meeting, which will take stock of economic forecasts for the Eurozone, there will be a press conference by Mario Draghi. The first bond purchases should start on Monday 9 March.
But the market, as expected, has already moved well in advance, as evidenced by the fall in yields accelerated by the belief that the ECB may have struggled in the early days to find sufficient sellers, especially in Germany, given the decline in emissions due to the zeroing of the deficit and restrictions on the sale linked to the requisites required by the regulations of the insurance companies.
While awaiting the D day, the yield on 10-year BTPs reached a new all-time low of 132 basis points, the spread fell below 100 points. At the end of 2011 it had reached 550 bp. Bunds of similar maturity fell to 0,32%. The yields of German issues up to 7 years (about 65% of the total) are below zero, for the first time since 2010.
In recent weeks, several central banks have revised their monetary policy downwards: Denmark cut official rates to -0,7%, Sweden to -0,10%. Switzerland has imposed a negative rate on bank deposits. In all, of the 33 central banks monitored by JP Morgan, 18 have implemented monetary easing (or currency devaluation) policies.
A RECORD 2015 FOR MILAN: +17,5%
2015 got off to a great start for the European stock exchanges, excited by the prospect of QE.1 The FtseMib index closed the month of February with an increase of 8,9%, repeating the result of January (+7,8%). In the Top Ten of Piazza Affari in January-February Popolari and automotive excel. The best performance was Bpm + 55% ahead of Fiat Chrysler +43% and Finmeccanica 40%. Followed by Banco Popolare +37% and Bper +34%.
The performance of the first two months of 2015 sees Piazza Affari soar above all the main price lists with an overall gain of around 17,5%. Followed by Paris +15,7% and Frankfurt +15,2%. The Eurostoxx 600 rose by 14,6%. Madrid remains further behind +8,4% also due to some concern linked to the triumphal march of "Podemos". The Spanish radical left party is growing in the polls thanks to the success of Tsipras in Greece. Regional and municipal elections will be held in Spain in May.
Japan marks a rise of 7,7%, Nikkei index at the highest since the year 6. Hong Kong rallied 2014%. Shanghai, after the heady march of 4,2, advanced by 0,7%. Switzerland is much less effervescent, only +1,3%. Meanwhile, under the pressure of the strong dollar on the multinationals' balance sheets, the US markets slowed down in the two-month period: Dow Jones +500%, S&P 1,5 +4,4%. The Nasdaq does better, +39,6% under the pressure of Apple. The outflows of large US equity funds to Europe are conditioning the performance of the lists: according to Epfr Global, there have been redemptions of XNUMX billion dollars since the beginning of the year.
FORMER INCUMBENT GOES TO BROADBAND WAR
Over the weekend, the expectation of the broadband plan that will be examined by the council of ministers on Tuesday held the table. "No decree will be presented on Telecom or imposing arbitrary shutdowns of the copper network" reassured Undersecretary Giacomelli, but the will to accelerate the transition from the copper to the fiber optic network will be reaffirmed. A final date for the scrapping of the copper network will not be established, at least for now, i.e. 31 December 2030 present in the draft accompanying the plan drawn up by Undersecretary Raffaele Tiscar.
But the tension remains high: the copper network is in fact the main guarantee in support of debts (26,4 billion), strengthened by a goodwill of 11 billion. Hence the risk, given the loss in value, of having to proceed with a devaluation of the asset in the order of 1,1 billion per year over the next five years. The stock will today be in the spotlight of Consob, which could intervene and ask the government to specify whether 2030 is a possible date for the switch off of the network.
RAI WAY, THE CHALLENGE OF THE TOWERS CONTINUES
Consob also on the field on Rai Way. Today Rai will send the Commission the answer to the clarifications requested regarding the corporate governance of the subsidiary, starting from the characteristics of the stakes set by the government at the time of listing. The reply should limit itself to retracing the process of the September decree which established the obligation for the parent company not to fall below 51%.
But the maneuvers in progress are taking the lead, involving both the subsidiary of Mediaset, Ei Towers, and Telecom Italia itself, which is preparing, by June, to proceed with the IPO of Inwit, its company of the Towers. Rai Way's performance on the Stock Exchange, +3,4% on Friday, demonstrates that the takeover bid is by no means dead and buried for the market, as logic would have it following the confirmation that Rai must not fall below 51%. Hence the feeling that the news is not finished.
Not only in terms of the towers (an Italian hub is possible, in which to bring together the subsidiaries of Rai, Mediaset and Telecom) but also in terms of the shareholding structure of the former telecommunications monopolist: the demerger of the shares of Telco, the controlling shareholder of Telecom, it's almost done now. Thus the entry of Vivendi is looming, which will take over a part of the shares in the hands of Telefonica, but also the definitive exit of Intesa, Mediobanca and Generali.
BANKS IN THE LIFT. 10,7% OF CARIGE IN MALACALZA
Tomorrow the final data of the 2014 financial statements of Intesa and Bper will be communicated. The next day it will be Monte Paschi's turn. The board of directors of the Siena institute will have to replace David Manuel Martinz, representative of Fintech, one of the first shareholders of Monte with 4,5% of the capital. The Mexican businessman left his seat on the board deeming him, says a note, "no longer sustainable with the executive role in Fintech", an investment fund he founded specializing in corporate and sovereign debt based in London and New York. A fintech spokesman said the fund did not intend to divest its 4,5% stake in MPS.
Waiting also for the Carige title. The Malacalza family took over 10,5% of the shares from the Carige Foundation for a value of almost seventy million euros. On the eve of the capital increase (700 million) imposed by the European Supervisory Authority, Malacalza will therefore become the first shareholder of the bank, followed by the French shareholders of Bpce (owners of 9,9%) and by the Foundation which could further dilute its stake from 4 to 2%.
THE OVS REGISTER LANDSCAPE. THE LUXOTTICA ACCOUNTS ARE COMING
The Oviesse serial number arrives on the stock market today. Final requests during the offering period were 226,8 million shares, approximately twice the amount offered. The 5.233 applicants were thus assigned 111,9 million shares, 101,8 million destined for institutional ones. Based on the offer price of 4,10 euros per share, the market capitalization of Ovs is 930,7 million.
It is a price that is placed on the lower end of the valuation range initially indicated: in fact, it was written of a range between 4 and 5,4 euros per share. Among today's appointments, the Luxottica board of directors dedicated to the 2014 accounts also stands out. JP Morgan has raised its target from 45 to 48 euros, revising upwards the forecasts for the current year and the dividend. The production of Italian eyewear in 2014 marked a growth of 9,4% to 3,17 billion euros, supported by exports which reached a new all-time high.
GTECH, BET ON LAS VEGAS UNDERWAY
The multinational gaming company is the only blue chip to show a drop, albeit only 1%, compared to the beginning of January. But on Thursday, the American gambling authority, the Nevada Gaming Commission, unanimously approved the merger between the Italian group and International Game Technology (IGT), a company based in Las Vegas, world leader in gaming software and in the construction of gaming machines. It was the last hurdle before the launch of the new company, based in London. The stock immediately gained 4%.
