Having overcome the obstacle of the Dutch elections and having filed the modest rise in US rates, the financial market is looking to the G20 in Germany over the weekend, the first real official confrontation between Trump's America and the others. "It is important that no country manipulates its own currency," US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said yesterday at the end of a first meeting with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, adding that for the United States "a strong dollar is positive in the long run”. The German colleague nodded but stressed that the German trade surplus is the result of Germany's "homework", not exchange rate maneuvers, which are impossible given that control of the currency concerns the ECB, not the Berlin authorities. There will certainly be a battle on this issue at the Baden Baden summit, which is important for understanding what remains of the cooperation between the big companies, jeopardized by Trump's rhetoric.
In the meantime, the Stock Exchanges are preparing to archive a positive week, albeit with some final uncertainty from Wall Street. Piazza Affari reaps the good fruits of the work carried out by Generali and Unicredit, waiting for the grand gala of the Star Conference next week in which, in front of managers from all over the world, the SMEs of our house will parade with mostly positive balance sheets, if not excellent. Unfortunately, as the governor Ignazio Visco said yesterday, the distrust of the partners, Germany in the lead, caused by Italy's inability “to do its homework to grow more and better, overshadows the appeal of the Bel Paese. At the time of entry into the euro – added Visco – a commitment was made to reduce the debt/GDP to 60%, while now it is 130%”.
INDIA AT THE HIGHEST. PICK WALL STREET
In Asia, the rally of the Indian Stock Exchange continues this morning: the BSE Sensex index rises by 0,3% and reaches its highest level since March 2015. The highest in the last 19 months also for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index: + 0,3%. Shanghai loses 0,3%. The Japanese Stock Exchange is starting to close down: Nikkei -0,3%.
Wall Street is slowing down, conditioned by sales in the health sector after the health reform wanted by President Trump was given the go-ahead by the House Budget Committee. The Dow Jones index falls by 0,07%, S&P 500 -0,16%. Flat the Nasdaq +0,01%.
The landslide of Snap continues, the social network that landed on Wall Street with a collection of 3,4 billion in the IPO. The title, from a high of 29 dollars, plunged yesterday below 20 dollars (-4% to 19,92 dollars) while the sells by analysts are raining. On the other hand, Oracle sets the all-time record (+6,2% to $46,99) on the wave of the software giant's cloud computing profits.
ENI RALLY, DESCALZI: LEAVING SAIPEM? NOT NOW
Contrasted the trend of oil. Prices recorded a slight decrease (Wti at 48,75 dollars and Brent at 51,75) despite the decline in the dollar due to the increase in inventories: in the last week in Cushing, Oklahoma, inventories of shale oil have risen of two million barrels. Saudi Arabia has made it known that it no longer intends to limit its production to compensate for the lack of cuts by other producing countries, with particular reference to Russia.
In great evidence in Piazza Affari Eni (+2,3%) on Investor day. CEO Claudio Descalzi said that 2016 was “an exceptional year in terms of results, we lost 50 barrels of production due to external events, but despite this, we managed to recover and maintain our budget. There is no longer any intention to divest the chemistry that is working well. We are very confident." On the contrary, Descalzi said, “will we leave Saipem? Probably yes, but this is not the moment, from a market point of view and from our point of view". The oil equipment company rose 1,1%. Tenaris +0,6%. Claudio Descalzi, said the company is not interested in large acquisitions. Current size is fine.
FLY PIAZZA AFFARI, BTP EXCHANGE TODAY
Markets sigh of relief at Euro-skeptic Geert Wilders' defeat. But the bombshell letter to the IMF's Paris headquarters froze enthusiasm in the debt markets. The Ftse Mib closed the session with +1,7%, at 20.109 points, thus taking it above the threshold of 20 points for the first time since 13 January. The other European indices also closed up, with the Cac40 closing at +0,56%, the Ftse 100 recovering by 0,64% and the Dax30 at +0,61%. The most tonic was Madrid +1,82%.
The rise of the European stock exchanges was driven by the shares of mining companies and raw materials (Stoxx of the sector +3,1%). Banks also did very well (+0,8%). The distrust that exists between Italy and Germany on the public debt management front is currently one of the most difficult elements of the common monetary policy in the euro area. This was stated by the governor of Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco, speaking at a conference on the future of Europe organized by ISPI. "What is fundamental at the moment is the lack of trust between countries, especially between us and Germany," he said Visco underlining Italy's inability “to do its homework to grow more and better. At the time of entry into the euro, a commitment was made to reduce the debt/GDP to 60%, while now it is 130%”.
Negative closing for the Italian bond market, in line with the other European government bonds, in the face of the abundant offers from France and Spain, to which the exchange announced by the Treasury will be added today. The Italian 2,35-year rate rose to 2,28% from 2014% at the close, while remaining below the maximum since November 2,40, just above the 191% reached at the beginning of the week. The spread with the same maturity of the Bund rose to 186 basis points from 183, after a minimum of XNUMX points.
The bullish movement at the start of the session did not last long, driven by the defeat of anti-EU forces in the Dutch elections and the relatively dovish message from the Fed. Yesterday's session was weighed down by the issuance of new paper by Madrid and Paris . The first placed 4,8 billion on various medium-long term maturities. The second just under 7 billion Oat 2020 and 2022, plus two indexed. Weak, at the current price level, the demand for Spanish Bonos. As regards BTPs, the part of the curve most under pressure was the 15-year section, i.e. securities with a maturity between 2033 and 2036, in view of the offer of up to 2 billion BTPs in August 2034 in today's exchange.
GENERAL
Piazza Affari gave a great welcome to Generali's 2016 accounts (+3% to 14,62 euros). The year closed with a net profit of 2,08 billion (+2,5%), substantially in line with analysts' expectations. Dividend of €0,80 per share (+11%). The group has confirmed the main financial targets envisaged for 2018, including that of a cumulative net operating cash of over 7 billion, but anticipates by one year (to 2018 from 2019) that on operating cost savings on mature markets by 200 million after costs fell by around 2016 million for the first time in 70. "We look to the future with confidence, as an independent Italian group with an international vocation", underlined the CEO Philippe Donnet: the Intesa chapter is closed.
The rise in US rates benefits bankers, especially Italians due to the greater volatility, with the sector index up 1,6% after reaching its highest since May 2016; the European Stoxx for the sector increases by +0,99%. Unicredit and Intesa mark an increase of 1,6 and 0,99%. Bpm Banca rises by more than 4%, recovering after the recent decreases.
FCA SOLD 1,17% OF CNH FOR 144,3 MILLION
Good rise for Fiat Chrysler (+1,8%) which in February recorded a 9% increase in sales in Europe, against a 2,1% market growth. FCA's market share rises to 7,9% from 7,4% in February 2016.
FCA has completely exited from CNH. The company announced yesterday that it has successfully completed the placement of 15.948.275 ordinary shares of CNH Industrial equal to 1,17% of the ordinary share capital. The consideration for the placement was 144,3 million euros for a unit amount of 9,05 euros. Among other industrial stocks, Prysmian +3,1%, StM +0,2%.
MONCLER, NEW RECORD. SHAKE SAFILO
Alternate trend in the luxury sector. Safilo falls (-3,7%) after results well below expectations. The company announced last night that 2016 closed with a gross margin of 89 million euros (Ebitda), around 8 million euros below consensus estimates. The eyewear company explained in the press release that the balance sheet was affected by a value adjustment of -150 million euros.
Conversely, Moncler (+0,6% at the opening) set a new historical record at 20,12 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the gain extends to +20%. After the quarterly data, optimism has improved among the 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg: 22 recommend buying. No advice to sell. The average target has grown to 21,88 euros from 19,60 euros pre-quarterly.
Geox +3,5%: Banca Imi has raised the stock recommendation from hold to add, with the target price rising from 2,1 to 2,5 euros.
MAIRE, IREN, BANCA IFIS: MEDIUM CAP IN FLIGHT
In the rest of the list some flattering operating accounts stand out. Maire Tecnimont rises into orbit, the best stock of the day with a leap of 13% which extends the progress of 2 days ago (+6,8%). The quotation returns to levels it has not seen since September 2015. Barclays has rewarded the results by raising the recommendation to Overweight d Equal Weight, with a target price that rises to 3,80 euros from 3,10 euros.
Banca IFIS closed on new historic highs, up 3,5% to 33,7 euro. The company communicated the 2016 results and approved the strategic plan for the three-year period 2017-2019. The year closed with a profit of 687,9 million euro, strongly influenced by the acquisition of the former Interbanca group, which yielded 623,6 million euro of non-recurring items.
Iren achieved the highest since 2008 at 1,6930 euro after the communication of the 2016 results. The multi-utility company closed 2016 with a 47% growth in net profit to 174 million euro on revenues of 3.283 million euro (+6,1% compared to 2015). Ebitda amounted to 814,2 million euros (+20,1%).
Purchases also on Piaggio (+3,8%), after the award of the tender called by the administration of the Municipality of Madrid to supply new vehicles for the municipal police.
Salini Impregilo (+3,4%) also celebrated the results: the company also signed a 435 million dollar contract with Meydan Group LLC for the construction of the Meydan One Mall in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.
