In 2024, Italian GDP will grow by 0,8%. This is the new estimate provided by the UParliamentary Budget Office (Upb) in its October economic note. The forecast is 0,2% lower than the +1% indicated during the validation exercise of the Structural Budget Plan forecasts, but also than the +1% forecast by the Government. Furthermore, on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund confirmed for Italy a growth estimate for the current year equal to 0,7%, while Confindustria he filed the forecast at 0,8% from 0,9%.
Upb: “Downward risks in the short and medium term”
The revision, explains the Upb, depends on the "worsening of the variation acquired for 2024, deducible from the quarterly data recently published by the'Istat". Furthermore the risks are “downside in the short and medium term”, especially due to international geopolitical tensions and the progress of the PNRR projects.
The available timely economic indicators – the note reads – do not agree on a clear evolution of the cyclical phase: on the basis of the models of the Parliamentary Budget Office in the third quarter, GDP would have changed only slightly, within a range between -0,1 and 0,2%, so “there is a non-negligible probability that it has substantially stagnated”. In particular, in the short term “activity remains held back by the weakness of the manufacturing sector“, while “the prospects for thebuilding“, especially after the reduction of incentives on residential investments.
According to the Upb, however, for the next few years the risks are mainly attributable to economic consequences of wars in progress and of the geopolitical tensions that slow down international trade. At a national level, the Office reiterated that the pace of progress of the works envisaged by the PNRR will be crucial.
Upb on inflation, employment and exports
“The Italian economy in recent quarters has recorded a cyclical growth of a few tenths of a point, similar to that of the euro area – he underlined in the October Economic Note –. In spring, our country's GDP grew by 0,2 percent, driven by consumption (private and public) and inventories, while net foreign demand had a negative impact. L'inflation fell below one percentage point in September and remains significantly lower than that of the euro area; almost 60 percent of prices now show increases below 2,0 percent”.
As far as the 'occupationThe Upb underlines how the permanent one continues to increase, while the unemployment rate decreases and real wages are starting to recover part of the loss of purchasing power accumulated in the last two years. "The consumer spending in fact it is slowly rising because families are very cautious and the savings rate has exceeded 10 percent – the document states –. The Upb indicator on tensions in credit market, based on the imbalance between supply and demand, foresees substantial stability in the spring and summer quarters, after the strong improvement observed in the previous months. A stabilization is also emerging for the market of mortgages".
Finally, the exports weakened by 1,2% in the second quarter and industrial activity production has fallen by 3 points in the first 8 months. The outlook shows no signs of improving in the short term, with manufacturing confidence at a three-year low.
