Oil, rates, banks and a little TV. The list of ingredients for a year finale that promises novelties, not always obvious, is long. The day before the Fed bankers' meeting, in conclave from tonight to give the green light to the increase in the cost of money, was agitated by oil, which rose to an 18-month high after the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. The agreement, intended to accelerate the return of inflation, had an immediate effect on the yields of US government bonds, which jumped beyond the 2,5% threshold for the first time since October 2014, and on the dollar, due to the braking for the first time in the Trump era, fearing that the Fed will signal in tomorrow's final statement that the currency has gone too high.
This is the macro scenario in which important matches open up, if not decisive for the financial balance of the Bel Paese. While awaiting news on the Monte Paschi front, the first emergency for the new premier Paolo Gentiloni, attention is focused on the new Unicredit business plan in support of the 13 billion capital increase, which is already guaranteed and which will change the shareholding structure, with the descent of the Foundations. The plan was preceded by the sale of Pioneer to Amundi, the thoroughbred of French finance. And the new partners could arrive from Paris who will respond to the appeal of the CEO Jean-Pierre Mustier.
Meanwhile, surprisingly, Vincent Bolloré broke the delay by announcing the purchase of 3,01% of Mediaset with the intention of increasing to "a stake which, initially, could represent between 10 and 20% of the capital ”. A full-blown takeover, accuses Fininvest, which has not been informed of the former ally's intentions. But also a new element that adds suspense to the already turbulent political framework.
PRICE LISTS WAITING FOR THE FED. TRUMP ATTACKS LOCKHEED
Meteo Borsa, meanwhile, forecasts uncertain times on the price lists. Sudden showers on stocks and bonds are not excluded. The Asian stock markets moved little, awaiting the moves of the US central bank. Tokyo is starting to close up 0,5%. Seoul and Mumbai are up 0,2%. China's stock markets are down slightly, despite the positive macroeconomic data. Industrial production rose more than expected in November (+6,2% year on year). Retail sales climbed 10,8%, the strongest increase since December 2015. Hong Kong fell 0,1% and Shanghai 0,2%.
Uncertain closure also for the US markets. The rise in oil prices favored the Dow Jones +0,12%. Down the S&P 500 index, which loses 0,2%, Nasdaq -0,75%. In the media, Viacom is in free fall (-9%) after the halt to the merger with CBS: the majority shareholder of both companies no longer wants to go ahead with the project. Sharp drop in Defense stocks after President-elect Donald Trump rejected the new F35 fighter plane with a tweet, writing that the program needs to be reviewed because costs are out of control: Lockheed Martin -2,4%.
FLY THE CRUDE. EXXON CELEBRATES TILLERSON'S APPOINTMENT
In great evidence Exxon Mobil: +2,2% over the threshold of 90 dollars. In addition to the rally in oil, the stock is benefiting from the news that this morning Donald Trump will appoint Rex Wayne Tillerson, former number one of the oil giant, secretary of state. Tillerson is the US businessman closest to Vladimir Putin with whom he had signed a mega agreement for the exploration of deposits in the Arctic blocked by the embargo decided by Barack Obama.
This morning, oil prices have moved little after yesterday's rally: Brent trades at 55,81 dollars a barrel (+0,2%), Wti at 52,70 (-0,1%). The fuse for the new leap forward of black gold was lit by non-OPEC producers (among others Mexico, Oman, Azerbaijan) who last Saturday, under the leadership of Russia, signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia for the production cut by 558 barrels of oil per day starting next January. More than half of the "sacrifice" is made by Moscow (-300 barrels), already the creator and guarantor of the previous agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia which had led to the OPEC cut by 1,2 million barrels.
Thus an unprecedented situation is created for the troubled world of black gold: an agreement that concerns just over 60% of the planet's oil reserves, perhaps even more if one thinks that Norway intends to adapt to the new alliance. American oil, which could play a disruptive role on the markets, remains out of the game: at these price levels, American shale oil becomes cheaper, also due to the enormous progress that has made it possible to lower production costs below $50.
ENI AT THE TOP THANKS TO THE AGREEMENT WITH ROSNEFT
Oil stocks are on the rise. In Paris Total marked an increase of 1,3%, in Amsterdam Royal Dutch Shell +1,5%, in London BP +0,8%. Stoxx oil and gas gains more than 2% to its highest since July 2015. Stocks such as Tullow Oil, Petrofac and Eni are among the best in the basket with increases between 3,5 and 9,5%.
In fact, among the most popular securities is Eni (+3,72%). It was not only crude oil price booms that buoyed the six-legged dog, but also the announced deal to sell 30% of Egypt's Shorouk (gas) field to Russia's Rosneft for $2,8 billion and from appreciation of analysts for the latest operations (the sale of a share in Egyptian gas and fields off the coast of Mozambique.
Banca Imi, on the eve of today's Investor Day in New York, raised its judgment to Buy from Hold, bringing the target price to 17,40 euro from 13,90 euro. Moody's confirmed Baa1 rating with stable outlook. The rating agency explains that the decision "reflects its positive upstream growth potential and anticipated cash flow improvements on the back of its new low-cost manufacturing assets and rising oil prices."
Tenaris (+2,72%) and Saipem (+2,92%) also rose with Eni. Trevi Finanziaria (+13,10%) deserves a separate note: the subsidiary Drillmec yesterday announced contracts for 160 million dollars for works in the oil field in Latin America and the Middle East. Trevi is engaged in the restoration of the Mosul dam, damaged by the conflict.
TOP BUSINESS PLACE, IMPROVE SPREAD
Piazza Affari was yesterday the best European Stock Exchange, the only one to close in positive territory. Futures have not moved much in view of the European opening. In Milan, the Ftse Mib gained 0,42% while the other main indices suffered a fall: London -0,92%, Frankfurt -0,12% and Paris -0,07%.
The threat of deflation in the eurozone has largely disappeared but bloc countries still need a stimulus to push inflation back towards the ECB target of around 2%. This is the opinion of the member of the governing council of the European central institute, Benoit Coeure. Responding to some questions via Twitter, Coeure also explained that "helicopter money", or the idea of distributing ECB money directly to citizens, is a concept intended to blur the line between Frankfurt's monetary policy and fiscal policies of the various governments.
The spread between Btp and bund fell to 160 basis points, from 168 on Friday, after the zip closure of the government crisis. The 2,07-year trades at 30%. The upward trend in yields on extra-long bonds continues, both the Btp 12 and the Bund and Bono of similar duration. The Treasury yesterday placed 0,190-month Treasuries at a weighted average yield of -XNUMX%.
MUSTIER LAUNCHES INCREASE AND ANNOUNCES CUTS
Apart from oil, banks are still the center of attention in Piazza Affari. Special observation Unicredit which yesterday in the afternoon reversed course closing down by 3%. The group's restructuring plan was disclosed to the market this morning in London: a 13 billion capital increase under option, fully guaranteed by a consortium led by UniCredit Cib, Morgan Stanley and Ubs as structuring advisor. The pool also includes, as joint global coordinators, Bofa Merrill Lynch, Jp Morgan and Mediobanca, while Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and HSBC are co-global coordinators and joint bookrunners. The meeting for the green light to the operation is convened on 12 January. The shareholders will also have to express their opinion on the proposal for the grouping of ordinary and savings shares in the ratio of one new share for every 10 held.
The plan envisages a further 6.500 net redundancies by 2019, for a total net reduction in personnel of approximately 14 units. The savings in terms of personnel costs amounted to 1,1 billion. The CEO Jean-Pierre Mustier presented himself at the Investor Day in London with already announced disposals for over 8 billion euros including the sale of Pioneer to Amundi for 3,545 billion.
MPS SUBMITS THE REQUEST TO CONSOB
Banca Monte Paschi closed yesterday in progress (+3,7%) after the crash on Friday (-10,55%) on the wave of rumors about the no to the postponement requested from the ECB for the capital increase. Starting Thursday, the Bank intends to launch the reopening of the offer to bondholders and the private placement of new shares with investors who have expressed interest in recent weeks (starting from Qatar). With this objective, the board of directors will meet on Wednesday, when all the necessary authorizations should have arrived for the reopening of the 'liability management' exercise, ie the extension to retail customers of the voluntary conversion plan into shares for around 2 billion.
Among the other banks, Intesa -0,6%, Banco Popolare -0,7%, Ubi +1,2%. Among the insurance companies, Generali rose by 0,2%: Barclays lowered its recommendation to Underweight from Equal Weight, but raised the target price to 13 euros from 11,30 euros.
VI SALES: IN MEDIASET UP TO 20%
The battle for Mediaset (-1,2%) kicks off this morning in Piazza Affari after Vivendi's "declaration of war" (as defined by Fininvest). The French company maintains that "the strategic interest of the industrial partnership announced on 8 April 2016 goes beyond the issues of the dispute pending on Mediaset Premium".
Therefore, the note continues, “Vivendi announces it has crossed the 3% threshold today of the share capital of Mediaset and now holds 3.01%". Furthermore, the company announces that it intends to continue to buy Mediaset shares based on market conditions, to become, where possible, Mediaset's second largest industrial shareholder, with a stake that, initially, could represent between 10 % and 20% of the capital of Mediaset”.
THE US PRESIDENT'S TWEET IS BREAKING LEONARDO
Among the industrial stocks, Fiat Chrysler stands out (+1%). Slowdown by Leonardo, which ends down 0,3% after Donald Trump's tweet in which the new US president criticized the new F35 fighter plane, saying that costs are out of control. Good rise for Yoox (+0,9%).
