Great news for Unicredit. Secondo Reuters, which cites sources close to the dossier, the European Central Bank is oriented to give the go-ahead to Unicredit to rise to 29,99% of Commerzbank. After months of waiting, the way could finally be paved for the largest cross-border banking operation in Europe since the global financial crisis.
Unicredit: Towards the ECB's green light for the Commerzbank takeover
Unicredit currently owns 9,5% of Commerzbank through a direct participation, in addition to a further 18,5% through derivatives. This brings us to 28% total. On September 23, the bank led by Andrea Orcel had submitted to the ECB the regulatory request for go up to 29,9% of the second German institute, one step away from the threshold of a takeover bid. If the ECB gives the green light, the derivatives of Piazza Gae Aulenti could be converted into shares (physical settlement).
E the Frankfurt response it could arrive soon, very soon, already within the next week. “The ECB is likely to complete its analysis of UniCredit's purchase of 29,9% of Commerzbank by early March, laying the groundwork for theapproval by the supervisory board during the month,” he reports Reuters, according to which the latest briefing of the ECB supervisory experts, which included several scenarios to assess the solidity of the banks, was positive. The deadline was set for mid-March and bringing it forward could mean that, at least at the European level, everything went smoothly. The obstacles, the real ones, are elsewhere.
In fact, for months now, answering questions from journalists and analysts on the Unicredit-Commerzbank operation, both the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde that the number one of the Surveillance Claudia Buch (German, by the way), had refused to give direct comments on the takeover, but had always added sentences that implied Frankfurt's support for the cross-border mergersand, considered one of the main ways to achieve the much-desired banking consolidation that would allow the institutions of the old continent to compete with the much larger ones in the United States. The green light from the European Central Bank, therefore, would not be a surprise, but without a doubt a signal that could arrive directly from Frankfurt to Berlin.
The real crux is German politics
After German Antitrust Authority notified of purchase of “minority stake” of Commerzbank, Unicredit now awaits the formation of the new German government which, in all likelihood, will be based on an alliance between CDU/CSU and SPD: the so-called “Grand Coalition”. This will in fact be the real test. From the very beginning, German politics has been hostile towards the operation. Former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) used very harsh words to comment on it, speaking of “unfriendly attacks” and “hostile takeovers”. And the future Chancellor was no exception. Friedrich Merz who on several occasions described the climb as “extremely hostile”, considering it a "truly devastating signal for the stability of Germany". For weeks the CEO Andrea Orcell He says he wants to wait for the formation of the new Executive to "clarify what happened and the benefits of the operation, and then obtain their support". Will he succeed?
