No need to expect miracles. Italy is growing slowly, even if it has changed direction compared to the past, but there is no magic wand that can accelerate the pace of development: the only way is to persevere in the reform policy and focus on indispensable cultural changes and expectations that can anticipate its effects. The debate organized by Il Foglio and attended by the president of Confindustria Vincenzo Boccia, the undersecretary Nannicini, the CEO of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Gallia, and prof. Giavazzi, beyond a few differences in accents, saw a substantial convergence on the need to continue in the direction pursued so far by the Renzi government, overcoming the corporate resistance that delays innovation, hinders the opening of the market to competition, slows down productivity of businesses.
Public spending cannot work miracles. Only Prof. Giavazzi has suggested that the Government push the deficit up to 2,9% in order to be able to reduce tax burdens substantially, but in general the State is not asked for new resources or subsidies, but a clear framework of rules capable of stimulating private initiative. After the Jobs Act, it is necessary to complete the labor policy both with the commissioning of the new employment agencies and with the modification of the rules on company representation and bargaining. So far the Jobs Act has allowed the creation of over 450 new jobs.
But to consolidate this positive trend, new rules are needed which – as Boccia underlined – allow through company bargaining to introduce organizational changes aimed at stimulating productivity and at the same time giving workers higher wages. On investments, after Giavazzi had accused Confindustria of being lukewarm on policies aimed at increasing competition, in the end it was agreed that industrial policies are needed capable of making the external environment more favorable to businesses, acting on competitiveness factors ranging from training in technological innovation, passing through energy, transport, finance and excessive bureaucracy as well as obviously the unreliability of Justice, which, as Gallia said, is the first risk factor in the country that keeps investments away from 'abroad.
Unfortunately, the international situation does not seem destined to help our economy. We cannot expect major initiatives from Europe in the short term, even if several speakers underlined that perhaps some decisions for greater Community spending could concern security policies and the creation of a joint core of military forces. This would lead to higher expenditures perhaps in deficit, thus contributing to the improvement of European domestic demand.
Overall, from the macroeconomic point of view, classic Keynesian policies, i.e. based on a strong intervention of public spending, do not seem possible, but the policies of change undertaken so far must continue. And here could not fail to be the passage on the referendum for the reform of the Constitution, the one that the world is watching with apprehension and hope. Boccia excellently summarized the reasons that led Confindustria to take sides for the Yes. Two are enough: the overcoming of equal bicameralism, and the modification of Title V on relations between the State and the Regions whose current confusion creates many problems for entrepreneurs. Voting NO means not changing anything. "I don't know if that would be the case because maybe we risk the worst - said Boccia - but this observation is already enough to understand that we need to vote YES to renew our prospects".
The scarce resources that will be available with the new budget will have to be allocated above all to support the competitiveness of businesses. Boccia argued that alongside zero-cost reforms, such as competition and simplifications, resources are needed both to reduce taxes and to finance technological and organizational innovation. This does not mean that welfare interventions should not be made to meet the most disadvantaged categories, but it is important that the Fornero law is not distorted, which is one of the pillars on which Italy's credibility on the financial markets rests.
But what matters above all will be regulations capable of helping the dimensional growth of companies whose dwarfism does not allow for the technological innovation that would be necessary. The industry 4.0 project which should replace the incentives given indiscriminately and which are useless, becomes fundamental. Giavazzi cited a survey by the Bank of Italy which shows that in the vast majority of cases companies would have made the investment anyway even if there hadn't been any incentives. And who had opposed the proposal to abolish them? Not Confindustria but the officials of the ministry who without the activity of disbursing the incentives would have seen their power vanish.
After so many years of weak governments that have made the wrong or only patronage policies (and the public debt is there to bear witness to the mistakes made), it is necessary to continue the work of change undertaken. But this passes through the approval of the constitutional reform. Otherwise, a new period of uncertainty will open up for Italy with a consequent worsening of the economic crisis.
