Greece but not only. We start again after a week of strong emotions. But everything suggests that the next few days will also be characterized by volatility, also in the wake of the evolution of the geopolitical chessboard. In Asia, meanwhile, the rule that requires markets to be more conditioned by central banks than by the trend of the economy finds new confirmation. The Shanghai Stock Exchange rises +1% amid strong exchange rates (28% more than the average) despite the disappointing commercial data: imports down by 17,6%, exports -2,5%. The market is betting that, faced with the new slowdown, Beijing will further widen its monetary policy nets. Opposite script in Japan. The Tokyo Stock Exchange - 0,2% welcomes the upward revision of GDP in the first quarter with a note of apprehension: +3,9%, the best figure since 1994: the recovery could lead the Boj to reduce the amount of Quantitative Easing, although Governor Haruhiko Kuroda recently underlined its psychological aspect with an unusual poetic image for a banker: for the economy, the Qe effect has the same function as Peter Pan's flight. If you stop believing it, GDP falls. Kuroda was nicknamed Ja pan pan.
ATHENS AND THE EU AT SHORTS – TURKISH LIRA UNDER STRESS
Among the “political” market movers the following stand out:
The resumption of negotiations on Greece. In reality it starts again from below zero Jean Claude Juncker gave up seeing Alexis Tispras before Wednesday when both will meet, together with François Hollande and Angela Merkel, in Brussels for a meeting with the leaders of South America. But in the absence of new proposals, Juncker said, "it is useless for us to talk to each other". According to an investor survey published by the Financial Times, a third expect the Grexit.
No less dangerous is the Ukrainian mine. During the week, the creditors (23 billion) will meet with Kiev in view of an agreement on the debt which promises to be very difficult.
On the Emerging front, the spotlight turned on this morning on the outcome of Turkish elections: the affirmation of the Kurdish party, for the first time in Parliament, made Erdogan's dreams of transforming the Crescent into a presidential republic, with strong dictatorial traits, vanish. There Turkish lira loses 3,5% against the dollar, treated at 2,75. Inevitable strong effects also on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.
DEUTSCHE BANK, REBOUND IN SIGHT AFTER THE TURNOVER, APPLE IN THE FORCE
On the international corporate front, two events stand out:
At the Frankfurt Stock Exchange first test for Deutsche Bank after the change of leadership decided over the weekend: the former CFO of UBS, John Cryan is the new CEO of the German bank. He replaces Anshu Jain (who is leaving with immediate effect) and the other for Jurgen Fitschen, who will leave at the end of the year. Thus the old summit paid for the market's no-confidence motion: 39% voted against the budget, contesting the plan presented after a disappointing year and the heavy fines inflicted by the Anglo-American supervisory authorities. The penalties imposed by the authorities on the 16 most important systemic banks since the outbreak of the subprime crisis have exceeded 300 billion dollars.
Eyes on San Francisco: The WorldWide Developers Conference is held tonight, the meeting that brings together suppliers and collaborators of Apple. It will be an opportunity to take stock of Apple's new strategies, starting with the possible developments of Mac and Ios, but above all with the new policy adopted by iTunes on the music market.
COSTAMAGNA NEAR THE FINISH LINE IN CDP
Crucial week in Italy for:
The changing of the guard in Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, by far the most important institutional investor on the Italian Stock Exchange. It seems obvious that Claudio Costamagna is destined to replace Giovanni Gorno Tempini as president of the Cassa (appointment that belongs to the shareholder Foundations, but agreed with the MEF). For the role of CEO, by statute chosen by the Treasury, the banker of Bnl-Bnp Paribas Fabio Galia is favored, but Gaetano Micciché also enjoys sympathy.
BUND AND BTP DANCE. TREASURY AUCTIONS COMING SOON
At the start, in the midst of the turbulence that has hit the bond markets, the mid-month Treasury auctions. On Wednesday, 6,5 billion six-month BOTs will be auctioned (against 7,15 billion maturing). The quantity of medium and long-term bonds on offer on Thursday will be announced tonight. It starts again after a real earthquake that hit the market after the shock on the Bund:?? the eurozone government bond yields in the long term they have risen sharply. That of the Italian 1,20-year BTP went from 2,24% in mid-March to 0,08% on Friday. That of the 0,88-year German Bund went from 87% in April to 133. In the meantime, the Btp/Bund spread widened less than proportionally: from the low of mid-March at XNUMX basis points it went to XNUMX basis points.
Among the consequences of the volatility that has affected the market is the trend of the euro. Over the course of the week, the single currency strengthened from 1,05 in mid-March to 1,15, only to retrace to 1,11 on Friday, under the pressure of the failure to reach an agreement with Greece.
BAGS, MILAN BETTER THAN FRANKFURT
The consequences for the European Stock Exchanges were serious, but not terribly serious: from the April peaks, the EuroStoxx50 and the Frankfurt Dax lost around 10%. Milan “only” 5%. But the last week was the most dramatic -2,8% Piazza Affari against the 2,7% drop in Eurostoxx. The US Stock Exchanges are much calmer, down despite the positive data on new jobs.
The Dow Jones lost 0,7%, S&P -0,3%, Nasdaq -0,1%. In anticipation of the meeting of the FOMC (the monetary committee of the Fed) on 16-17 June, the markets will mainly look at the trend in retail sales.
TELECOM, TWO BILLION COMING FROM THE TOWERS
The offer of the shares of the company of Telecom Italia's mobile transmission towers it is the first appointment of a crucial week for the former incumbent, a spectator (very much) interested in the launch of the government provision on the digital agenda, but also in the debut of shareholder Vincent Bolloré (appointment for mid-month).
From this morning until June 17th 218 million Inwit ordinary shares will be offered, equal to 36,33% of the share capital. The seller has also granted a green shoe option corresponding to 10% of the shares of the global offer which, in the event of full exercise, will be increased to approximately 40% of Inwit's share capital. The public offer envisages a non-binding minimum price of 3,25 euros per share and a binding maximum price of 3,90 euros, for a minimum proceeds of 1,95 billion and a maximum of 2,34 billion.
MALACALZA STRINGS ON BANCA CARIGE, STOP ON MPS RIGHTS
Kicks off, after Friday's tumble (-11%) the capital increase of Banca Carige: 850 million needed to comply with the ECB's requests. The operation, highly dilutive (but less than MPS), envisages the offer of 7 new shares for every one old at the price of 1,17 euros (35% discount on the Terp, less than the 38% discount practiced in the recent operation). Once the adjustment factors have been applied, the security starts at €1,724, the right at €3,88. On the eve of the new reference shareholder, Vittorio Malacalza, confirmed both his willingness to subscribe to the new shares for his share (15%) and his intention to round off the stake, in any case below the 25% threshold. Gabriele Volpi, a leading operator on African markets, especially in Nigeria, is also on the move, looking for a financial vehicle for his business. There Consob it will monitor trade trends with particular attention, keeping watch over speculative excesses.
Meanwhile, today expires the deadline for the transfer of the rights linked to the Monte Paschi capital increase which can be exercised until Friday 12. Even the bank of Siena was at the center of Friday's target practice (-5%).
MARCHIONNE LOOKS AT THE GM MEETING
Among the Big names in the price list, pay attention to Fiat Chrysler, in negative ground on Friday on the wave of the news that it will be at least October 12 for the listing of Ferra. But tomorrow there could be some interesting news for Sergio Marchionne from the GM shareholders' meeting. It is possible that some investors will not raise the question of a possible merger with FCA in front of Mary Barra, in line with the campaign launched by the CEO of Fiat.
ALSO THE CHINESE STATE FUND IN THE PIRELLI TAKEOVER OFFER
“Pirelli? It's a closed chapter. In the end, I will decide whether or not to join the takeover bid”. Thus Vittorio Malacalza, who owns 7% of Bicocca confirmed that he has adopted the "wait and see" policy, pending a raise on which the funds of Hank Paulson, the US hedge manager, are betting. Marco Tronchetti Provera and Chem China, however, pull straight on the strength of an exceptional ally: the Silk Road fund, with a 40 billion dollar endowment, promoted by the Beijing government which has chosen to make its debut on the financial markets by participating in the financing of the operation on Bicocca.
THE AGENDA: AEDES INCREASE, DIVIDEND BY CSP
Today is also the start of the capital increase of Aedes is expected. The offer concerns, in particular, 86.956.536 shares and is intended for all shareholders in the subscription ratio of eight new shares for each security held. The new shares will be offered at the unit price of 0,46 euro and the establishment of a guarantee syndicate is not envisaged as part of the increase. The operation represents the last step in the company's restructuring process, which saw the entry of Matteo Arpe's Sator, the Roveda family and also Gavio. The shares (-16,88%) were among the worst in the whole of Piazza Affari on Friday.
Week stingy with dividends: only Csp detaches the coupon (0,05 euro). On Monday 15 it will be the turn of Stm (first tranche, 0,09 euros). The distribution on the 22nd was much richer.
