More deficits and less GDP, but also fewer unemployed. This is the picture that emerges from the update of the European Commission's economic forecasts for Italy.
GDP
Now the EU Executive forecasts that the Italian GDP will grow by 1,4% in 2016 and by 1,3% in 2017. In the previous estimates, published last 5 November, Brussels indicated 0,1% more for both years.
WORK
At the same time, the EU now expects +1,1% in employment this year and +1% in 2017, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 11,4% in 2016 (from 11,9. 2015% in 11,3) and 2017% in 2016. Three months ago the EU forecast unemployment in 11,8 at 12,2% (from 2015% estimated on 11,6) and 2017% in XNUMX .
DEFICIT
For this year, the EU estimates a deficit of 2,5% of GDP and 1,5% in 2017. In the previous edition of the forecasts, Brussels indicated the deficit at 2,3% in 2016 and 1,6% % in 2017.
DEBT
Finally, as regards the debt-to-GDP ratio, the EU now expects an easing to 132,4% this year (from 132,8% in 2015) and then to 130,6% in 2017. Three months ago the estimates were 133% in 2015, 132,2% in 2016 and 130% in 2017.
MIGRANTS
In Italy, "the costs related to the incoming flow of migrants are estimated by the government at around 0,2% of GDP in 2015, they are only 0,05 percentage points more than in 2014, but more than double the costs recorded in the 2011 period -2013”, acknowledges the Commission in its Winter Economic Forecast.
In this passage, the Community Executive takes note of the arguments that the government had presented in its 2016 budget planning document, without, however, yet taking a position with respect to the Italian request to consider these costs outside the public deficit, for the purposes of compliance with the Pact of EU stability.
In particular, Italy has asked for the go-ahead from Brussels on three flexibility clauses, one of which plans to raise its own deficit-GDP ratio by 0,2% this year due to the migrant emergency (3,3 billion) .
CUT THE ESTIMATIONS ALSO ON THE EUROZONE'S GDP
As for the Eurozone, the European Commission cut the GDP growth estimate from 1,8% to 1,7% while confirming it for 2017 at 1,9%. For the EU +1,9% this year and +2% next year (November estimate 2% and 2,1%). Brussels reports that the European economy is now entering the fourth year of recovery and the expansion of activity "continues at a moderate pace mainly driven by consumption".
