The European Commission confirms the forecasts of last February on the growth of the Italian GDP in 2015 (+0,6%), but improves the estimates for 2016 (from +1,3 to +1,4%). This is what emerges from the spring economic forecasts published today by the EU executive.
The EU estimates that the Italian public deficit will be 2,6% of GDP in 2015, an improvement on the 3,0% in 2014. In 2016, the ratio is estimated at 2,0%, with unchanged policies. The structural balance is expected to improve by about a quarter of a percentage point of GDP.
Italy's public debt will reach a peak of 133,1% of GDP in 2015, after reaching 132,1% last year, before finally starting to decline in 2016 to 130,6%. The debt increase in 2015 is expected despite the privatization proceeds equal to 0,5% of GDP. The expected reduction in 2016 will be due to higher nominal GDP growth, and a higher primary surplus.
Furthermore, according to Brussels, this year there will be a 0,6% increase in employment, followed by a 0,8% increase in 2016. Values slightly higher than those expected in the estimates released on 5 February, respectively + 0,4% and +0,7%. In the meantime, according to the EU, the unemployment rate in Italy will remain high, above the 12% threshold, however this year falling to 12,4%, from 12,7% in 2014. No further reductions are expected for 2016. In the winter forecasts, three months ago, a 12,8% was expected this year, unchanged from 2014, and 12,6% on 2016.
The European economy “is experiencing its best spring for several years”, but “more needs to be done to ensure that the recovery is not a seasonal phenomenon. Investments and reforms, as well as responsible fiscal policies, are the key to obtaining growth and jobs in Europe”, said the EU commissioner for economic affairs, Pierre Moscovici, presenting the spring economic forecasts.
"A cyclical recovery is underway", he continued, supported by "external factors and political measures, which are starting to bear fruit".
EUROZONE
The European Commission has revised upwards its growth forecasts for the euro area, also as a reflection of the launch of the government bond purchase plan by the ECB. Now for 2015 the EU executive predicts an expansion of 1,5% on the GDP of the currency union, which will be followed by an acceleration to +1,9% in 2016. Much more solid values than the +0,9% of 2014 and which have been revised upwards compared to the forecasts released three months ago, in particular by 0,1 points on 2015.
“European economies are benefiting from several factors simultaneously. Oil prices remain relatively low – affirms the EU executive – global growth is holding up, the euro has continued to depreciate and policies in Europe are favorable to growth”. All this also reflects the quantitative easing plan launched by the ECB.
In the meantime, employment growth will strengthen to +0,9% this year and to +1,1% in 2016. Finally, again according to Brussels estimates, unemployment will fall to 11% in 2015, from 11,6 10,5% last year, and 2016% in XNUMX.
GREECE
The Commission has instead revised downwards forecasts for economic growth for Greece this year, warning that the political uncertainty weighing on the country, together with the tightening of financial conditions - linked to doubts about the completion of its correction program - are holding back the recovery. Now for 2015 the EU executive expects growth in Greek GDP limited to 0,5 per cent, while in 2016 there should be a much more solid recovery, with a plus of 2,9 per cent.
Meanwhile, the public accounts remain a problematic chapter, with the Greek public debt which will set a record this year by exceeding the threshold of 180 per cent of GDP (180,2%). In 2016, however, it should show a reduction to 173,5 per cent. According to the EU, Greece should be able to reduce the budget deficit to 2,1 percent of GDP this year, from 3,5 percent in 2014. In 2016 it should be almost unchanged at 2,2 percent of GDP.
