Perhaps never, since the end of the cold war between the West and the then Soviet Union, had tension in Europe reached the level of recent days, at the peak of more than a year of "escalation" (a term now obsolete, but now dramatically back in the news) political and military that risks spreading like wildfire from the borders between Russia and Ukraine to the entire European continent.
A picture of crisis, which has been taking shape since the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the rapprochement between Ukraine and the European Union, which led German Chancellor Angela Merkel to acknowledge, at the conference on security in Europe underway in Munich, that the talks (Friday in Moscow and yesterday by videoconference) with the Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin "failed" and consequently "the possibilities of resolving the conflict". And it has led the French president Hollande to affirm – perhaps improvidently – that, if a lasting agreement is not found, the only scenario that lies ahead "can only be war".
Confirming the seriousness of the situation, the NATO leaders "do not rule out" a military intervention, albeit in the form of supplying arms to Ukraine to help it defend itself from the pro-Russian people who have taken possession of the country's eastern provinces. And US Vice President Joe Biden, also in Munich for the conference on security in Europe, continues to push for the United States and the European Union to "side up together against Russia". Without clarifying, at least until now, whether this proposal to strengthen the understanding between the two sides of the Atlantic also includes a military intervention.
An option, the latter, that many European chancelleries do not seem willing to share. And that Federica Mogherini, in her capacity as high representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, also present at today's conference in Munich, is clearly against. During which you stated that "the EU is open to dialogue with Moscow". And, after reiterating that “our vision of relations with Russia has been based on a partnership for prosperity and security”, you declared: “The European Union can never be seen as a project against someone. The doors of the EU remain open to dialogue, but we cannot question our international principles and our values. Never!".
Federica Mogherini appropriately avoids mentioning it in this phase of accentuation of the crisis, but she cannot fail to bear in mind that it was precisely international principles and European founding values that inspired the EU's failure to recognize the pro-Russian referendum in Crimea and the elections defined "presidential and parliamentary" elections in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk which self-constituted the "People's Republic" on 2 November last. Referendum and elections, which the EU has defined as "illegal and illegitimate"; but which Moscow considers fully legitimate.
Russia has always been strongly opposed to the Association Agreement signed last year by Ukraine and the European Union. An agreement which, even if not yet fully implemented, has opened the door to substantial and continuous European financial support for Kiev, whose gas supplies from Moscow, partially interrupted, continue to hang by a thread in the midst of of the harsh Ukrainian winter.
Moreover, the European hope of an attenuation of the crisis with Russia and of the concrete implementation of the peace agreements signed last September in Minsk, Belarus, by all the parties involved (including the OSCE, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) but never respected. Thread to which the German chancellor clings when she states that, despite the current stalemate, "we must always try again" to put new peace proposals in the field.
Also on the Ukrainian side the hope of a solution to the crisis is not abandoned. This was stated by President Petro Poroshenko, who at the same time is urging NATO (an organization of which Ukraine is a member) to supply his country under siege with weapons. And this is confirmed by Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin who rejects the hypothesis of a break in diplomatic relations with Moscow. “Russia – he clarifies – must be an inalienable part of the solution to the problem. Precisely for this reason it is part, together with Ukraine and the OSCE, of the contact group among the signatory countries of the Minsk agreements”. While his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov flexes his muscles declaring that any supply of NATO weapons to Kiev "would aggravate the tragedy in Ukraine". But then he softens the tone saying he is "optimistic and convinced that the talks between the parties will continue".
This line is evidently traced by Putin. Who from Sochi, where he attends the congress of Russian trade unions, sends a message that could ease the tension. “Russia doesn't want to fight with anyone and intends to cooperate with everyone,” he says verbatim. But Merkel distrusts the Tsar of the Kremlin and calls for caution in interpreting Putin's words. “In the light of the failure to comply with the Minsk agreements – she warns – I think we need to be very cautious about the guarantees offered by Moscow. Even if the conflict in Ukraine cannot be resolved by military means, and its solution can only be reached with Russia and not against Russia".
And yet - while today the EU Foreign Affairs Council is meeting in Brussels with the aim of further strengthening the European sanctions against Moscow ("which are not effective, even if they damage us", Putin points out) - that thin thread hope for peace seems to have strengthened after today's announcement that on Wednesday 11 February Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko will meet in Minsk, the city where the September agreements were signed, which were never applied. Is it the right time to start a concrete peace process? Hope remains feeble. Putin anticipated that he will participate in the meeting "only if he manages to agree on certain positions by Wednesday". But, as Angela Merkel argues, it is important to try.
