From the Walter Reed Medical Center in Washington where Donald Trump is hospitalized, there is comforting news about the health of the president who could be resigned during the day. The markets react everywhere with a robust rise, even if there are skeptics about the real state of health of the president:
- Futures on the S&P index rose by 0,8%, that of the Nasdaq by 1,1%. The London derivative also rose by 0,9%.
- The Chinese and Taiwanese price lists are still closed until Thursday for holidays. Strong increases in the Hang Seng of Hong Kong, Sydney +2,3% and Tokyo.
TOKYO +1,9%, KOREAN KOSPI ADVANCES TO THE SOUND OF K-POP
- Tokyo +1,9%. The automotive, high-tech and even finance companies are highlighted.
- The gaming sector was less brilliant, as the casinos in Macao remained almost completely empty during the crucial holiday period that began last week: turnover recorded a drop of just over 90%.
- The Korean Kospi also rose +1,1% on the day of the launch of the IPO of Big Hit, the agency that represents Bts, a leading K-Pop group. This is the most important IPO since 2017, with an all-time record in bookings, over a thousand times the offer.
STRIKES IN NORWAY, OIL RISES
- Brent oil rebounds and is back above 40 dollars a barrel: +2%, from -6,3% last week. This morning, one of the Norwegian oil industry workers' unions announced that the strike that started spontaneously last week is going ahead. Abstention from work, which for the moment affects only six plants, could reduce oil production from Norway by eight per cent.
TRUMP TO THE DEMOCRATICS: WE WORK TOGETHER ON THE BUDGET
Supporting the rise in stock markets, in addition to the medical report on Trump, is the prospect of an upcoming compromise on fiscal stimulus on the economy, halfway to the Democratic proposal for a 2.200 trillion dollar plan.
On Sunday, the president tweeted "let's work together" inviting the speaker of the House, the Democrat Nancy Pelosi to close the deal on fiscal stimuli as soon as possible.
BIDEN IN ADVANTAGE, NEW STIMULI FROM THE FED
According to the Nbc / Wall Street Journal poll, Joe Biden's lead over the president has risen to 14 points. But nobody ventures a dry prediction during an electoral campaign that spares no surprises.
Against this backdrop, operators await the publication of the Fed minutes but even more so the words of chairman Jerome Powell who on Wednesday 6 could announce new expansionary measures to support the economic situation and thus relaunch the monthly bond purchase plan.
SOS DEFLATION IN EUROPE. TODAY THE PMI INDEXES
Similar concerns for the Eurozone, now in full deflation. For the first time the price index fell below zero for two months in a row (-0,3% in September after -0,2% in August). In view of the month-end directorate, pressure is growing for the central bank to review, in line with the Fed, the 2% constraint as an inflation target.
Among the most important macro data are the services PMI data of the main Eurozone countries. The composite PMI and the non-manufacturing ISM index arrive from the USA in the afternoon.
SIA/ NEXI MARRIED TODAY. THEN THE SHOPPING IN EUROPE STARTS
Piazza Affari opens its doors this morning by greeting a long-awaited and important merger: with the marriage between Sia and Nexi, the Italian giant of electronic payments is born with a capitalization estimated at 16 billion (11 for Nexi plus 5 estimated for Sia, unlisted).
CDP should become the first shareholder with 25,001% of the capital, in order to prevent future and possible raiders from taking over control of a strategic asset for the country, without launching a mandatory offer on the market. Intesa Sanpaolo which together with Ubi has just under 12% should dilute to 7%, while Mercury funds should drop from 33 to 22%. The new company is already thinking about shopping. The Danish group Nets is in the crosshairs.
UBI GOODBYE, BPER INCREASE STARTS
Meanwhile, this morning Borsa Italiana will proceed with the delisting of Ubi, the last act of the acquisition by Intesa San Paolo. The capital increase of Bper Banca kicks off. The institute will offer a maximum of 891.398.064 ordinary shares in the ratio of 8 new shares for every 5 option rights, at the unit price of 0,9 euro. The operation will end on October 23rd.
TODAY THE UPDATE TO THE MEF AND THE EUROGROUP
In Italy it is the day of the awaited launch in the Council of Ministers of the Update Note to the Def. The data on retail sales is also arriving for the euro area.
The videoconference meeting of the Eurogroup is on the agenda. A speech by the president of the German central bank on economic measures against the Covid crisis is expected.
The European opening could be conditioned by the news on the contagion: the French government could order the closure of all the bars in the Paris region from tomorrow, following the new leap in positives on Saturday.
THE YIELD OF BTPs STARTS AGAIN FROM THE MINIMUM
Deflation favors the golden age of debt securities in the euro area, Italy in the lead. The BTP is getting stronger: the 0,79-year yield, down by two basis points to 1,69%, falls to its lowest level in history. The thirty-year bond also reached a new all-time low of XNUMX%.
The 3-year and 7-year Treasury auctions will be held during the week.
UBI DELISTING, BPER INCREASE
Meanwhile, this morning Borsa Italiana will proceed with the delisting of Ubi, the last act of the acquisition by Intesa San Paolo. The capital increase of Bper Banca kicks off. The institute will offer a maximum of 891.398.064 ordinary shares in the ratio of 8 new shares for every 5 option rights, at the unit price of 0,9 euro. The operation will end on October 23rd.
PARIS CLOSES THE BARS
The European opening could be conditioned by the news on the contagion: the French government could order the closure of all the bars in the Paris region from tomorrow, following the new leap in positives on Saturday.
JAMES BOND STILL OUT. CINEMA IN BANKRUPTCY
The risk of closure of Cineworld, the world's second largest group of cinemas (543 in the USA, 128 in the UK), contributes to underlining the emergency. 90 percent of cinemas have been closed for at least 6 months. The hope of restarting was linked to the distribution of the latest James Bond film, which had been stopped for at least six months. But the distributors have decided that we still have to wait, given the trend of the infections. The dismissal of 37 employees is looming, in line with the 28 cuts by Walt Disney Entertainment.
BREXIT, LAST CALL (MAYBE)
At the European level, a crucial week even if not decisive for attempting a last-minute deal on Brexit. The president of the European commission Ursula Von der Leyen and the British premier Boris Johnson have agreed on the need to work hard to resolve the "significant differences" on future relations between the EU and the United Kingdom: however, an agreement is still missing (which in theory was to be found by 15 October) on many key issues, from state aid to fishing quotas.
