"The trade war is reminiscent of the script of Quentin Tarantino's films", tweeted this morning Edward Moya, an analyst quoted by Reuters: twists and turns, bloody threats followed by equally insincere hugs. “It is my way of negotiating – Donald Trump acknowledged yesterday on his return from the G7 – It has always been good for me”. And so, after the hottest threats, yesterday it was time for caresses. "I spoke to the Chinese - he says - this time they really intend to reach an agreement". The markets applaud, but welcome the latest news with a note of skepticism.
The optimism is also justified by the reopening of dialogue with Iran, a great success of Emmanuel Macron at the G7 in Biarritz, and to the positive evolution of the Italian crisis.
But the new decline in the yuan confirms that the situation remains high-risk.
CHINESE PRICE LISTS RISE, SALES ON SAMURAI BOND
This morning, in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei is up 1,3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0,2%, the CSI 300 indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen up 1,8%. Seoul's Kospi +0,7%, Sydney's S&P/ASX 200 +0,6%.
The yuan slipped to eleven-year lows against the dollar at 7,16, +0,2% (-3,6 in August), neutralizing most of the effects of the tariffs. Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs have revised their forecasts downwards on the yuan seen at the end of the year to 7,5.
The yen rose to 105,7 against the dollar, driven by the agreement between Trump and Shinzo Abe on trade but also by the closure of speculative positions. The Japanese currency is in fact widely used in the carry trade, the strategy which involves borrowing in currencies of countries with low rates and then buying bonds or currencies of countries with higher rates (BTPs for example).
In the first six months of the year, 2 trillion yen (equal to 270 billion dollars) left Japan: yesterday the 2016-year Samurai Bond touched its lowest since 0,27 at -XNUMX%.
MEGAFINE TO JOHNSON AND JOHNSON FOR OPIOIDS
The US markets also rose yesterday: Dow Jones +1,05%, S&P 500 +1,10%. NASDAQ+ 1,32%.
An Oklahoma court held pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson responsible for the state's opioid crisis, ordering it to pay $572 million in damages. The stock rose 4% as the company feared far worse fines, up to $17 billion.
The best stock was Apple (+1,90%), semiconductors also did well.
Gold held back this morning to 1.528 dollars an ounce, but the signs remain on the upside: purchases of 650 tons are expected for this year by China and Russia.
OIL RISES, TRUMP OPENS TO IRAN
Brent oil is up 0,5% to $59 a barrel, after three consecutive sessions of decline. Donald Trump has said he does not want regime change in Tehran and that he is ready, under certain conditions, to meet with the country's leaders.
Positive first session of the week for the main European indices (London was closed for holidays). The news on the US-China trade negotiations front also eased the tension in the Old Continent, sufficient to compensate for the umpteenth negative note arriving from Germany: the Ifo index stood at 94,3 points in August, down from 95,7 points in July, the lowest since 2012. "In the best case scenario, there will be stagnation during the third quarter," said Klaus Wohlrabe, economist of the institute, commenting on the data, adding that this will also have repercussions on the numbers final German GDP results for the second quarter, expected today.
MILAN AT THE TOP WAITING FOR COUNT BIS
Piazza Affari, the best European stock exchange, closed up 0,99% on the day's highs at 20.676 points. Pd and Movimento Cinque Stelle are working to be able to present themselves at the Quirinale, with an agreement on the new government led by Giuseppe Conte.
NEW MOURNING IN THE CAR: FERDINAND PIECH DEAD
The other eurozone stock exchanges are more timid: Frankfurt, +0,44%. Last night Ferdinand Piech passed away, the legendary car leader who built the Volkswagen empire. The success of Audi is owed to Piech, grandson of Fedinand Porsche. After the deaths of Sergio Marchionne and Lee Iacocca, the car says goodbye to the third great who is gone in just over a year.
Paris +0,45%. The US speculative fund Third Point has entered EssilorLuxottica (+0,42%), with the probable aim of exploiting the governance problems between the two partners.
Madrid +0,34%. London was closed yesterday for public holidays. The European Union wants Britain to fulfill its financial commitments it made when it was part of the EU bloc even in the event of a 'no-deal' Brexit. This was stated by Mina Andreeva, spokeswoman for the European Commission.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said yesterday that in the event of a no-deal London will no longer be required by law to pay off the £39 billion divorce settlement agreed by his predecessor.
STABLE SPREAD AROUND 200 POINTS
The Italian secondary closed today's session with little move, awaiting the evolution of the crisis.
Around 17,30, the gap between the BTP and Bund rates on the ten-year segment stood at 201 basis points.
The ten-year rate is at 1,36%, stable since the opening, from 1,31% at the last closing.
The Bund is trading at -0,66% (+1 basis point).
BANKS UP 1,6% RECOVERY, JUVENTUS STOCK COLLAPSES
The banks have found the strength to regain part of the ground lost on Friday: the sector rises by an average of 1,6%. Intesa San Paolo and Ubi are up about 2%. Unicredit +1%, Banco Bpm +1,3%.
The Juventus stock collapses (-3,92%) in a rally since mid-August: speculation no longer believes in the Neymar deal. Lazio, on the other hand, is up (+4%) after its brilliant debut in the league.
Mediaset advances (+1,4%), after the news that Vivendi has filed an appeal to protect its right to vote at the assembly on 4 September for the birth of the Dutch holding company, which should be the starting point for a European TV pole .
The automotive sector did well after the US openings on the tariff front: Ferrari +2,03%, Fiat Chrysler +1,38% and Pirelli +1,46%.
MAXI ENEL PLANT (+1,72%) IN CHILE. 5G RELAUNCHES TIM
Enel goes up (+1,72%). The subsidiary Green Power Chile has started the construction of Campos del Sol, the largest solar photovoltaic plant in Chile with 382 megawatts of installed capacity.
Telecommunications +1,46%. Analysts are looking at the commercial launch of 5G services in Italy which took place in large cities at the end of July with the first offers from both TIM and Vodafone. The two companies managed to anticipate the 4G coverage targets by 5 years (to date 21%).
THE RECOVERY OF TREVI CONTINUES
Trevi rises by 8,6% continuing the race that began on Friday after the Trevisani family presented a hypothesis of adhesion to the agreements for the implementation of the recovery plan.
