What will happen in Italian politics after the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who today goes up to the Quirinale to put the office back in the hands of President Sergio Mattarella after the collapse in the referendum? It happens that the Head of State becomes the real arbiter of the situation and essentially has three paths ahead of him:
1) reject Renzi's resignation asking him to remain in office and to reappear in Parliament for a new vote of confidence;
2) accept Renzi's resignation and immediately start new consultations with the political forces for form a new government;
3) dissolve the Chambers and announce new political elections.
Of the three options, the latter is more probableboth because Renzi has no intention of staying in Palazzo Chigi as a loser and because it is difficult to go to early elections with a electoral law (the Italicum, which does not apply to the Senate) on which the judgment of the Constitutional Court is pending and which will probably have to be redone.
Consequently, the most likely scenario after the dry result of the referendum that rejected Renzi's constitutional reform is that Mattarella accepts the resignation of the current prime minister and starts consultations to form a new government. Given the deep divisions between the political forces is it is unlikely that an institutional government will emerge and instead it is much more probable that it will be born a government that has only two objectives: to redo the electoral law and to secure the economy.
Among the possible candidates to lead such a government there are mainly three personalities: the president of the Senate, Piero Grasso; the Speaker of the House, Laura Boldrini; the Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan. At present, the latter seems to have a better chance for three reasons: because it is the most pleasing to Renzi and the Democratic Party, which remains the largest party in Parliament; because it can ensure the continuity of economic policy at a time of foreseeable market turbulence; because it has extensive relations abroad and is able to negotiate both with the European Commission and with the chancelleries of the main countries.
Whether the candidate for prime minister will actually be Pier Carlo Padoan will be better understood when Renzi and the Democratic Party reveal their cards and they will say whether or not they intend to support, and to what extent, the new government and whether the party will remain united behind Renzi after the defeat in the referendum.
