Menacing clouds rage over the international skies. I am more and more gloomy prospects for the future of airlines global grappling with the economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 emergency. The sector is one of the hardest hit by the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the small glimmers of hope that were ignited at the beginning of the summer with the partial recovery of travel and traffic seem to have faded in the wake of the uncertainty caused by the potential second wave of infections and the restrictive measures introduced in some countries.
That being the case, thea Iata (International Air Transport Association) has decided to reduce the estimates on air traffic in 2020, admitting that the short summer rebound has already petered out.
The new forecasts predict for global air traffic a 66% drop, three percentage points higher than the -63% previously estimated.
"The improvement seen in the summer months has practically stopped," said Iata chief economist Brian Pearce. From a monthly point of view, traffic dropped by 75,3% in August regarding the number of passengers and the distance covered in flight. The survey for the month of July instead showed a drop of 79,5%. In this context, it should be underlined that the slight improvement seen in August is the result of domestic flights, which fell by 50% on an annual basis, while for international routes the contraction is as much as 88%.
Going forward with the data, load factors, which measure the proportion of filled aircraft, fell 27,2 points last month, to an all-time low of 58,5%.
“The sector is recovering but it looks like it will continue to consume cash,” Pearce said. Losses will continue to grow throughout 2020, considering the weak data on bookings for the fourth quarter.
The coming months could show another step backwards. Especially if governments return to imposing quarantines and travel restrictions that could lead to the total collapse of the sector. Precisely for this reason, Iata is applying pressure by asking instead the spread of rapid tests for Covid-19 at airports instead of quarantines on arrival.
“Commercial aviation will not be able to recover unless quarantines are lifted. The rapid antigen test is the only possible alternative to quarantines”, said Geneva Alexandre de Juniac, director general of Iata a few days ago. "The test - she specified - should be mandatory for international flights, these are the cases in which there are quarantines, not for domestic flights".
We remember that in Italy the rapid test is already used at Fiumicino airport and in other national airports and is carried out to travelers from Greece, Croatia, Spain, Malta and the red areas of France.
