The week of the markets starts badly. In Tokyo, due to the strong appreciation of the yen which has risen to 97 per dollar, the stock market is experiencing a decline of around 3 percent. There are three causes for the decrease: a) the governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, declared that "it will take time" to bring inflation to 2% as foreseen by Abenomics; 2) the poor state of health of Chinese industry, which suffered a sharp drop in profits in June; c) caution in view of the Federal Reserve meeting.
In the meantime, it comes away to warm up the domestic atmosphere Financial Times a letter from the EU Commission dated 16 July: Commissioner Joaquin Almunia rejects the plan presented by Italy for MPS as too "soft". There are three objections: a) overly optimistic forecasts of the business plan; b) the consequences of the bailout for bondholders are too mild, starting with the Foundation that owns the fresh bonds; c) doubts about the salary of managers. Both Alessandro Profumo (500.000 euros) and Fabrizio Viola (400.000) are within the parameters set for banks in crisis, but the required details on bonuses are missing.
THE WORD TO THE GOVERNORS. TODAY THE AUCTION BOT
Hot week, therefore, not only for the weather. From an Italian point of view, in addition to the barrage of quarterly reports and the Treasury auctions at the end of the month, the wait for the Cassation's decision on the Mediaset trial, on which Silvio Berlusconi's parliamentary (as well as political and judicial) fate depends.
The key appointments of the week, however, once again concern the central banks, first the Fed and then the ECB.
Tomorrow begins the two days of the FOMC, i.e. the meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary committee, the last before the traditional mid-August meeting in Jackon Hole, Wyoming, Ben Bernanke's favorite stage for years to illustrate the bank's autumn strategy central.
The markets expect from Wednesday evening's press conference a more precise indication of the timing of the tapering, ie the reduction of purchases on the US central bank market. But the violent conflict over the January succession of "Ben the helicopter" now weighs in the background: half of the Democratic parliamentarians sided in favor of Janet Yellen, Bernanke's deputy, but above all against Lawrence Summers, Obama's favorite but above all to the financial system which owes him and Robert Rubn the wave of deregulation at the end of the XNUMXs.
Thursday will be the turn of the ECB directorate. Mario Draghi will take note of the first signs of recovery in the eurozone and will confirm the guidance of the cost of money at low levels. But the markets are expecting news on the front of tools against the credit crunch: in the last few meetings the president of the ECB spared no surprise blows. It will be difficult for him to renounce a strong gesture exactly one year after the historic outing in defense of the euro which saved the single currency.
After the success of the Ctz auction, the Treasury takes the field this morning with 6-month Bots. The month-end auctions will be completed tomorrow with the offer of 5 and 10-year BTPs.
APPOINTMENTS: FIAT AND RCS ON THE COVER
A week full of deadlines for corporate Italy.
Among the most important quarterly:
Fiat-Group, BoD and conference call (17,30 pm) with analysts on the accounts for the first six months of the year. Tuesday 30 July. Long awaited for any news from Delaware: the judge should rule on the price of Chrysler shares in the hands of the Veba fund of the US union.
Italcementi Group, conference call Wednesday 31 July (16pm).
Fiat Industrial. conference call (16 pm) Wednesday 3 July.
Autogrill. conference call Wednesday 31 July (17 pm). World Duty Free Spa, a spin-off of the group, will land on the stock exchange in the first days of October: Meanwhile, Gian Mario Tondato, said that the company could be forced to make the painful choice of leaving Italy if the entire system of concessions of service areas along the motorways: in 9 years Italy's share of the group's total has dropped by over 30 points.
RCS Media Group Conference Call Thursday 1st August (10.30 am)
Enel conference call Thursday 1st August (conference call at 18 pm)
Mediaset Conference call Thursday 1st August (18 pm)
Prysmian Group conference call 1st August (18 pm)
Bank Intesa Conference call Friday 2 August (15 pm)
THE NUMBERS OF THE WEEK: TELECOM AT THE TOP
Telecom Italia is also in the spotlight: the dossier on the unbundling of the Network is moving again and the CEO of 3 Italia, Vincenzo Novari, announces that discussions with Telecom have been interrupted but could be resumed in the autumn.
Best Italian blue chip in the last week was Telecom Italy with an increase of 12%. Among European telephones, e-Plus stands out +19% after the agreement with Telefonica +6,7%.
Worst blue chip is stm -13% in the week.
The Milan Stock Exchange holds the positions gained with the recent extensions and closes the week with a rise in the Ftse Mib index of 1,7%. On Friday, the main index of Piazza Affari closed the session at 16421 points (-0,05%).
The rest of Europe did worse. The Eurostoxx index -0,3% closed the week with a negative sign for the first time in 5 weeks.
This morning both the City and Euronext are called to evaluate the merger of the century in the world of advertising: the merger, worth 35 billion dollars, of the American Ominicom with the French giant Publicis.
In the meantime, the quarterly earnings campaign continues, after a difficult start for some.
Between disappointing budgets Basf drops by 5,9% e Ab -4,7%. Siemens -4,5% after announcing it will fall short of its 12% industrial margin target. Capital of Switzerland Sulzer -19%.
On the contrary, the large Spanish banks closed in positive territory, bbva e Bank of Santander.
The shadows on thetampering”, that is, the reduction in purchases on the markets by the Fed has slowed down Wall Street's progress. The S& P index -0,1% closed slightly lower for the first time since June 21st. Equally slight was the progress of the Dow Jones index +0,1%.
In the USA, the quarterly campaign is drawing to a close. So far 73 percent of companies have beaten estimates, 57 percent have indicated improving forecasts for the third quarter.
Queen of the week was Facebook +31%, on the wave of results. Apple climbs 3,8%.
Black Jersey a Caterpillar -4,2%, affected by the slowdown in sales in Asia.
Hard times for Expedia -27%: Competition burns the margins of the online airline ticket sales champion.
