The tremors that keep on make Emilia tremble, with a serious aftermath of dead, wounded and homeless, were felt strongly today also in Bologna, in the ancient Palazzo Davia Bargellini, where the Nomisma. The macroeconomic aspects of the world crisis have been studied here for weeks and a gray future is estimated for Italy: "The recovery will hardly come in 2013 - says Sergio De Nardis, chief economist of the research centre – we are more inclined to think like the Monetary Fund and the OECD, we believe that the start of next year will still be in a slight recession”.
In this context, up until a few weeks ago, Emilia-Romagna stood out for better keeping accounts. “The strong propensity for exports of this region – De Nardis continues – allowed it to get along better than others. However, the earthquake is undermining this privileged situation, not because foreign demand is declining, but because businesses, with all the structural damage they are suffering, are having a hard time keeping up with their commitments. May will be a month to forget. In the first place for the dead, for those who have lost their homes, but also for the GDP: because there are destroyed warehouses, stopped companies and general uncertainty. In short, the destruction. Paradoxically, however, as an economist I must observe that after destruction there is always reconstruction”.
Doctor De Nardis, what should we expect in the coming months?
In the meantime, let's hope that the earth stops shaking. Once the situation stabilizes, after the catastrophe effect, we expect a rebound effect, which will also spill over into the region. Emilia-Romagna represents 9% of the national GDP, therefore it has a considerable specific weight.
What needs to be done to start the rebuild?
I think the Government will try to reduce the tax burden on the affected populations and I think it should also act at a European level to obtain greater flexibility on the parameters. For example, there is already talk of the fact that the money invested in reconstruction is not counted towards the deficit and this is fundamental. Apart from the earthquake, we were studying the situation in Italy and we were wondering how it could revive the economy. Well, we hadn't found many ways out, because rigor imposes fiscal tightening and expenditure containment, so the margins for a relaunch seemed really slim. The paradoxical effect of events like this earthquake is that they mess up the cards on the table, leading to a propulsive action.
In short, can we find scant consolation in tragedy?
It's bad to say it now, that we are still in the midst of this terrible event, but it is true. I am convinced that the region and consequently Italy have the right to be less strict on the accounts. The data for May will be very negative, but from June or July, it is hoped that the economy will regain vitality also thanks to the fundamental construction sector. This happened in Japan, but also in Abruzzo. Unfortunately this positive effect will come after a very painful event and there will be nothing to celebrate.
