Sunny day for the stock exchange Telecom Italy, which gained 3,8% in the middle of the morning, to 0,828 euros, achieving the best rise of the entire Ftse Mib. The numbers of the South American subsidiary Tim Brasil triggered the wave of purchases on the shares of the telecommunications group, but above all the analysts' forecasts on the accounts that will be approved today by the Board of Directors (together with the update of the business plan) and press releases in closed markets. A conference call is scheduled for Monday.
ICBPI analysts write that today Telecom's quarterly "should confirm the reversal of the operating trends of the Italian activities. We expect a slight increase in the top line (+0,4% in the fourth quarter to 3,89 billion euros) supported above all by the growth in the mobile sector and the strong acceleration of profitability (Ebit margin Italy expected at 45,1%)”.
As for theBusiness plan update on Monday, attention will be paid above all to the targets of Italian activities. The current consensus forecasts an average annual growth of organic Ebitda of 0,7%, compared to the 6,86 billion euros expected in 2016, with a cumulative Capex over the three-year period of approximately 10,3 billion.
Meanwhile, it is above all what attracts the attention of investors Tim Brazil, the Brazilian subsidiary of Telecom Italia, which closed the fourth quarter of 2016 with a net profit down by 21,8% to 364 million reals, a reported ebitda up by 4,4% to 1,568 billion reals and a normalized (excluding the impact of the tower sales) of $1,561 billion, up 5,8%. All data is higher than analyst estimates.
Tim Brasil also supplied the updates to the industrial plan to 2019, which now forecasts an Ebitda margin growing from 33,5% in 2016 to above 36% and a market share rising from 23 to 25%. Investments should drop to around 4 billion reals, while estimates speak of positive results for the coming quarters for revenues from services and EBITDA.
Analysts Banca Akros they underline that the data for the quarter show a clear improvement and exceed the estimates. The contraction of revenue services in particular was less than expected. The new business plan, the experts underline, assumes revenue growth, improved margins and sustained investments between now and 2019. The improvement should already be visible in the short term with all the next 4 quarters showing positive results.
Also for Equity the data is higher than expected and is improving further. Tim Brasil is worth around 12% of the group's proportionate EBITDA and around 15% of the group valuation. According to ICBPI experts, the numbers of the Brazilian subsidiary are higher than estimates thanks to the stabilization of revenues from mobile services and the reduction of operating costs.
Furthermore, on Friday morning Tim announced that he had signed an agreement with Rai which will allow all subscribers of TIMvision, Tim's on-demand television platform, to see an absolute preview of all 20 films in the Rai Cinema/01 film list screened in cinemas over the last few months.
The cycle will open with “La Correspondence” by Giuseppe Tornatore and will close with the latest film by Alessandro Siani “Mr. Happiness". In 2017, among the other cinematographic successes included in the agreement, "Veloce come il vento" by Matteo Rovere, "La pazza Gioia" by Paolo Virzì, "In Guerra per Amore" by Pif and "L'estate addosso" by Gabriele Muccino.
One year after its theatrical release, all the contents will always be available exclusively on-demand for 24 months on TIMvision. The same titles will be broadcast on the Rai networks starting from the thirtieth day after TIMvision goes online.
