THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF APRIL 2024 – Manufacturing has emerged from torpor: what are the reasons? The signs of recovery are unanimous throughout the world: should we review the forecasts upwards? Why do the markets give more confidence to Italy? What are the…
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF FEBRUARY 2024 – The Red Sea risks widening conflicts: does it also pose risks for inflation? Why hasn't the rise in rates slowed down economies too much? How will the ECB react to Eurozone weakness and…
Inflation for the month stands at 0,1%. The change brings inflation back to the levels of April 2022. There is also a drop in the Eurozone. For 2023, the inflation acquired in Italy is +5,7% for the general index and +5,1% for the…
Inflation is slowing down but the underlying figure is disappointing, separated from the prices of energy, food and tobacco, which rise to +6% from +5,8%. Also slowed down in Europe
On the growth of the euro area, the OECD estimates +3,1% in 2022 and +0,3% in 2023: therefore in both cases lower than that for Italy
Inside or outside Italy, inflation does not make discounts. The drought and the energy crisis are pushing up the prices of many products. And Frankfurt is ready to evaluate a new tightening of 75 basis points
According to a study by the Bank of Italy, prices vary more frequently in unprocessed food (31%, on average, every month) and much less in services (6%)
According to a focus of the Upb, the reduction at Eurozone and EU level will be 1,8% - On the other hand, Italian debt remains 50 points higher than the euro area average
The PMI manufacturing indices in July drop everywhere below the threshold that separates expansion from contraction, at their lowest for over two years - The lowest figure is the Italian one
INTERVIEW WITH FRANCESCO GARZARELLI, former Goldman Sachs financier and now at Eisler Capital - "Many factors that push inflation up could reappear. Above all, we need to keep an eye on wage growth and the prices of rents and services. A monetary policy…
The Economic Bulletin confirms the solid recovery of the euro area, which will return to pre-Covid levels at the beginning of 2022, even if the Delta variant is worrying in the short term. Inflation 2,2% this year
The PMI indices elaborated by Markit set record levels thanks to vaccines and reopenings - But beware: along with demand, inflation also rises
Faced with the enormous growth in the public debt of the Eurozone countries due to the pandemic, a way out must be found that does not compromise financial stability: the solution may be to allow the ESM to purchase all the debt from the ECB…
The EU Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni presented the growth forecasts - The estimates on Italian GDP and that of the entire Eurozone have been revised downwards (-8,7% in 2020). “The pandemic has caused a deep contraction of the economy and…
Presenting the report on the activities of the ECB in 2019, the vice president de Guindos says that the Eurotower is "more determined than ever to support the economy of the Eurozone" and sides in favor of the recovery fund - On the sentence of the German court: " We under…
In the spring economic forecasts, Brussels estimates a -7,7% for the Eurozone's GDP in 2020 - Italy records on the deficit front - Worse than us for debt and GDP only Greece
The NCV forces us to redesign the 2020 scenarios. The downward revision of growth estimates has just begun. The first real effects of the contagion on the economy will be seen in the February data, in a month's time. For now, it's just speculation.…
Together with our country there are only Cyprus, Austria and Finland - According to the latest ECB bulletin, in the first half of 2019 the minimum wage recorded a surge in the other 15 countries of the euro area
In China, consumer prices travel at 3,8%, but it is due to swine flu. In the Eurozone, producer prices are falling. And in USA the temperature is neither hot nor cold. The convenience of investing in gold is very relative.
US job creation continues, and this, coupled with good real wage growth, fuels confidence and spending, while the high saving rate ensures there are no excesses.
Economic indicators point slowly-almost steady ahead. Orders remain declining and from manufacturing there are signs of contagion to services. Consumption and construction hold. Brexit hangs in the British elections, while the threat of tariffs has disappeared…
The German manufacturing PMI collapses to 41,44 points, the services PMI and the composite one also suffer - The whole Eurozone falls - Sharp reaction of the Stock Exchanges
In the latest update of its "Global Economic Outlook", the rating agency has made "significant downward revisions" to half the world's GDP for the next 18 months
In its latest economic bulletin, the central institute warns that global uncertainty weighs on manufacturing in the euro area - Investor confidence falls - Inflation will fall further
The trend is positive both in the Eurozone and at the European Union level, while it remains heavily negative in our country
Since last Sunday, 17 of the 19 central banks in the Eurozone have stopped issuing purple tickets: only Austria and Germany remain out, but they will adapt from April - The decision was taken by the ECB to counter illegal activities…
EU heads of state and government have given the green light to reform the euro area but deep divisions remain over the function of stabilizing the budget to deal with unexpected shocks
The unwillingness of the Italian government to change the budget maneuver could lead to infringement proceedings and sanctions against Italy even before the European elections in May, but the central question is whether the government intends to challenge the European rules…
The Fund worsens its forecasts on the trend of the Italian debt-GDP ratio and warns: "We need credible and substantial consolidation in the medium term" - The global economic expansion "won't last" and the next crisis could be triggered by US inflation or from a Hard…
The Italians have never given anyone a mandate to take them out of the euro but, despite verbal assurances, the facts and behavior of the government risk building a creeping exit from Europe and the single currency, to which we must react…
The slowdown will mainly focus on the Eurozone and all its major economies, namely Germany, France and Italy. The UK super-index falls over the year - The United States and Japan are doing better, for which a "stable phase is expected…
We report Schroders' comment in full, edited by Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist and Strategist of the international financial group. The risk of an Italian debt crisis linked to the choice of Italian policy towards Europe also weighs on the scenario.
The IHS Markit PMI Composite of the Eurozone for August, which records business confidence, is up on July but records the third lowest value since January 2017 - The picture a few hours after the Jackson Hole appointment but…
"But growth remains solid and widespread", reassured the Eurotower number one after the Governing Council left rates unchanged - "Protectionism has a profound effect on confidence, which in turn weighs on growth forecasts"…
French President Macron is betting a lot on the reform of the Eurozone, as the main dish of the Council of Heads of State in June, but does not find a side in Chancellor Merkel, whose resistance appears to be dictated by internal political reasons - VIDEO.
In March, the IHS Markit PMI, which measures the health of the manufacturing sector, recorded a slowdown in growth throughout the Eurozone, with the figure returning to the levels of July 2017 - In Italy it remains above…
Marcello Minenna, Consob manager and former councilor of Rome in the Giunta Raggi, proposes a so-called plan for the gradual mutualisation of public debts: a very imaginative plan but completely out of reality - Here's why
Rates and forward guidance unchanged from the ECB - Draghi: "Rates will not rise within the year" - On the strengthening of the Euro: "A source of uncertainty that must be monitored" - Euro at the top for 3 years
The prime minister warns against easy promises in the electoral campaign: "This is not the time to undermine the tax and pension pillars" - An appeal that comes just as concern about spendthrift Italy returns in Germany and 14 economists…
Sustained growth and further upside potential for equity markets in 2018; these are the main elements of the latest Credit Suisse Investment Outlook - Credit Suisse sees Millennials emerging as a decisive economic, social and political force
Gentiloni: "don't squander the excellent results, the government will do its part". Growth trend at the maximum for 6 years. Agriculture is down, on industry and services. Thirteenth positive cyclical change, ie above the zero threshold
Rates will therefore remain at their current level "until we see signs" of a rise in inflation - On Quantitative Easing: "The benefits outweigh the distortions".
FROM INPIU.NET - The political testament of the German Minister of Finance, by pitting debtor European countries against creditor countries, would risk, if really applied, breaking up the Eurozone - The problem is that his successor in the new government…
According to Frankfurt, in the Eurozone "immigration has made a large positive contribution to the working-age population during the recovery" and "the increase in the labor force during the economic recovery has been driven by female participation"
FOCUS BNL - Private debt indebtedness is falling: you are the European countries with the highest private debt but Italy is not there - Emergency for the USA and Great Britain
DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAGEMENT - The latest economic data reveal that the Netherlands and Spain are in first place in European growth: Germany is third, France fourth and Italy fifth
From MORNINGSTAR - In the second quarter, European investors preferred the stock exchanges of the Old Continent to the American one. In fixed income, funding flows went to dollar-denominated and emerging market bonds.
IHS Markit releases information on the Purchasing Managers Index every month. Eurozone final manufacturing index, in June, at 57,4. Growth rates improve in almost all countries, Greece resumes its expansion phase,…
According to the central institute, a "stronger" recovery is being recorded in the Eurozone, which could lead to faster growth than expected - Prices, however, are still volatile - The ultra-expansive monetary policy measures remain confirmed and could increase if…
The financial consultancy firm Markit Economics has communicated the final data for the month of May of the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). In Italy the tertiary sector maintains a strong growth rate, acceleration also in France, while it remains stable…
In May, the Sentix index on the confidence climate of financial operators in the euro area returns to levels not seen since August 2007 - Analysts' estimates beaten.
In April, the PMI index elaborated by Markit/Adaci rose to 56,2 points from 55,7 in March - Seven of the eight nations monitored in the Eurozone recorded an improvement in the operating conditions of the manufacturing sector.
The PMI index in the eurozone reaches a new record in April. Employment and prices are growing. If this trend continues, 2017 estimates are likely to be revised upwards, says IHS Markit chief economist Chris Williamson
The ECB president replied, remotely, to the German Weidman who instead urged an end to QE after the publication of the Fed minutes which accelerate the rise in US rates, probably towards the end of the year. New call for reforms
Italy at the highest since April 2011, like Germany. Great Britain and Spain are down
European corporate profits remain 60% below 2008-9 peaks while US 10% higher, according to Franklin Templeton's VP - But rising inflation could change everything
From the ADVISE ONLY BLOG - Systemic risk in Europe is growing and we are once again talking about the spread between BTPs and Bunds with concern - The level of risk, however, is very far from that…
The bulletin of the European Central Bank confirms the expansive policy and removes fears of a tightening on rates linked to the recovery of inflation in the Eurozone in January. Risks related to Brexit and US trade policy remain
A report by the US rating agency dedicated to the return of inflation in the Eurozone highlights that it will still take some time to make the ongoing price adjustment lasting
UBS ANALYSIS - From confidence to prices to credit: here are the factors to evaluate in order to try to understand if earnings growth in the Eurozone has finally reached a turning point.
According to Markit estimates on the PMI indices, the expected growth for the third quarter promises to be similar to that recorded in the first half of the year - But the slowdown in manufacturing orders and the drop in optimism in the tertiary sector suggest a…
However, according to Markit economists, in light of Brexit and the attack in France "the eurozone economy has shown a surprising recovery".
For Theresa May, the real challenge will be to protect financial services and especially cross-border banking services - To ease tensions and the risk of political contagion, Europe must set the course for growth policies and centralize…
The European statistical institutes confirm their estimates despite the result of the referendum on Brexit - Consumption will push the growth of GDP in 2016 - European lists are running.
According to the preliminary revision of the forecasts, contained in the update of the report, the GDP of the Eurozone is expected at 1,6% in 2016, with a slowdown to 1,4% in 2017.
Activity in services in Italy grew in June: the Markit services PMI index rose to 51,9 from the Markit services PMI index rose to 51,9 in June from 49,8 in the previous month - The figure for the Germany and the Eurozone.
Eurostat confirms the drop in prices compared to March. In Italy -0,4% against -0,1% a year earlier.
In the May Bulletin, Frankfurt reiterated its intention to "use all available tools" to stem inflation that is too low - In June, as already announced, there will be the first of the new series of targeted refinancing operations at multiple…
On the other hand, the growth forecast for 2017 has been confirmed - GDP estimates for the entire Eurozone have been reduced: +1,6% in 2016, +1,7% in 2017 - Deficit/GDP estimates have changed: 2,4% in 2016, 1,9% in 2017 - Expected for 18…
The growth rate doubles compared to the fourth quarter of 2015 - In the EU, on the other hand, the gross domestic product increased by 0,5% after +0,4% in the October-December period last year.
The director general of the International Monetary Fund, in the text of his speech prepared for today's speech at the Goethe University in Frankfurt, said that "the recovery of the world economy continues but remains too slow, too fragile" - Words of praise for…
In Italy, the unemployment rate stood at 11,7% in February, up from 11,6% in January, but still down from 12,2% in February 2016.
The January superindex, which analyzes the economies of the 34 most industrialized countries in the world, marks a slight decline, with the exception of Italy (which has the highest score among the individual countries taken into consideration) and the Eurozone as a whole - Weakening…
Eurostat has published the data for the fourth quarter of 2015: GDP in the euro area grew on a quarterly basis by 0,3%, in the EU-28 by 0,4% - Italy +0,1% in the fourth quarter: France and Germany do better and Spain - The European Country…
The PMI index relating to the currency area has fallen to a 12-month low, like that of Italy - It is even worse in Germany, while France is still in stagnation - Spain and Great Britain are also worsening - Markit: "The Eurozone of concern…
According to Istat data, in February inflation in Italy fell into negative territory by 0,2% on a monthly basis and by 0,3% on an annual basis - Shopping carts also down - Inflation down also in the Eurozone, for the…
Negative data on prices in the Eurozone are sinking the single currency, pending the new measures of the ECB - Stock markets in red also in the wake of the heavy drop in Chinese stock exchanges - The banking sector is the most affected - FCA…
The growth rate recorded by the PMI index is the weakest in 13 months - Germany slows down again, France stagnates - Markit: "The data exponentially increase the probabilities of further stimuli from the ECB in March".
The number one of the ECB sounds the alarm and confirms: "We will not give up on low inflation: the risk of side effects will not stop us" - "Further expansionary policies possible in March to support the recovery of the economy" - Banking union: " Fundamental the…
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ISTAT-IFO-INSEE - The recovery of the Eurozone should continue at a moderate pace: GDP rose by 1,5% in 2015 and will increase by 0,4% cyclically in the first and second quarters of 2016 - The of the Middle East conflict would lead to both a…
The manufacturing PMI data and inflation in the euro area are positive: the Markit index is at its highest levels in 20 months and the price trend in November is on the rise to +0,2% - The trade surplus is growing (+24,1 .XNUMX billion)
According to the central bank, "the likelihood of a sharp rise in risk premiums globally has increased as a result of growing fears about the state of emerging economies".
According to Eurostat data, the index decreased in September compared to August, but growing on an annual basis - The trend is similar considering all 28 EU countries.
The composite PMI index of the currency union stood at 53,6 in September from 54,3 in August - The slowdown in September increases the risk that the ECB will resort to Qe again - In Italy the index marks a sharp decline both …
The postponement of the Fed's rate hike sends three signals: 1) the good thing is the invigorating effect on the international context; 2) the bad thing is the reduction for the Eurozone of the positive effects of Qe; 3) the bad guy is the risk that…
In the entire European Union of 28 the increase was instead 0,7%, after -0,5 the previous month.
The rally on Wall Street and the growth of the European GDP give impetus to the European stock exchanges - Piazza Affari gains 1,4% - Azimut, Autogrill, Mps, FCA and A2a are up sharply - Among the FtseMib stocks, sales on Telecom…
Eurostat corrects the estimate upwards to +0,4%, up from the previous +0,3%. The Italian GDP grew by 0,3% compared to the previous quarter (when the change was +0,4%), while the French one remained flat (after +0,7%)…
LUPOTTO & PARTNERS - Here are the main differences between the members of the euro area in terms of growth, debt, deficit, per capita GDP, unemployment and inflation - If the EU wants to continue to exist, it will have to decide whether to manage…
Eurostat data certify the drop both on an annual basis (-2,2%) and on a monthly basis (-0,1%) - The drop in the item relating to energy weighs heavily - Risk of new downward pressure on inflation.
History is full of financial crises and insolvent countries but Greece's bankruptcy is held back by its membership of the EU and the Eurozone - If it fails and leaves the euro Greece would suffer a sharp devaluation of its new…
The President of the European Council Donald Tusk convened him at 18 pm
According to Draghi, the "full implementation" of the expansionary measures put in place by the ECB "will ensure the necessary support for the economy" - "Greece? It must remain in the euro, but a strong agreement is needed". Price growth forecasts for this year have been revised upwards from 0…
The reference rate remains at 0,05%, the level reached last September - The rate on marginal refinancing operations (0,30%) and that on deposits that banks park with the ECB (-0,20%) were also confirmed .
The 2015 Economic Outlook drawn up by the Parisian organization improves the estimates of economic growth in the Eurozone, to +2,2% in 2016 - Forecasts for the United States lowered - A 0,6% increase in GDP is expected for Italy in 2015 and 1,5% in 2016.
Unemployment improves in Europe - Encouraging signs also for consumption: retail sales in April recorded an increase of 0,7% compared to March
According to the President of the ECB, "the cyclical recovery alone is not enough, but it gives us the best conditions to increase our commitment to reforms" - "States hand over the governance of structural reforms to Europe" - "Steps forward by Italy and Spain…
FOCUS BNL - In 2014 the real disposable income of households in the euro area returned to growth (+1%) with positive effects especially on consumption - Investments are growing, also thanks to the low level reached by interest rates.
Euroland grows slightly less than forecasts in the first quarter - Even analysts are surprised by the data relating to the GDP of France which in the first quarter of 2015 recorded an increase of 0,6% compared to the last three months of last year...
According to the European Commission's spring forecasts, Italy's GDP will grow by 1,4% next year but the unemployment rate will remain above 12% - Draghi's Qe is good for Euroland, while political uncertainty weighs on the Greece. Muscovici:…
